Hi UK Plumbers! I'm having a complete bathroom refit and have heard some contrasting opinions on various retailers (either shops or online only). I''d just like to get your opinion on your favourite and worst retailers for bathrooms. Cheers!
Best high Street or Online retailer for Cycling apparel UK?
Looking for a great affordable place to buy clothes for when out on my bike, but more casual clothes (jackets/base layers) as opposed to full on Lycra suits? Definitely do not want to be a 'all the gear and no idea' kinda guy. The cheaper the better! Thank you in advance
What are the best online retailers of vegan food? (UK)
Like me, you probably struggle to find the more exotic vegan foods (like tempeh, tofu) in supermarkets. What are the best online retailers for these foods? I am a student so I don't have a massive budget and am looking to buy things in large quantities to save money.
What are in your opinion the best online independent retailers for GW stuff? I have bought from TotalWarGamer, but the order didn't arrive after a month and their service was atrocious. I want to save against GW prices, but I'm worried about being burned again. Who would you go with?
@techradar: Which online retailer offers the best phone buying experience? Vote now for @VodafoneUK, @AmazonUK, @Mobilescouk, @CPWTweets, @ThreeUK, @O2 or @eBay_UK and be in with a chance of winning over £1,500 worth of tech #TRMCCA18 https://t.co/GfPhaje20H https://t.co/5bVSlR46zX
I'm looking to start up a tequila collection but I live in a small town so I have limited option for buying tequila from the shops here. Where would be a good place to purchase online?
I've always used shopto.net for pre-orders but recently their twittefacebook/blog posts seem to be pretty sony biased, and their prices aren't as competitive as they used to be. Can anyone recommend a reliable alternative? Cheers
Why are the knives all gone? An explanation to price increases and constant OOS messages
We’ve seen an influx of new members to the sub and one of the questions constantly being asked is “why is the knife I want still out of stock?” Longtime members, meanwhile, are more likely to ask why the same knife costs 30% more today than it did a year ago. These are good questions, but the answer is sufficiently complex that answering in a comment reply doesn’t give a full picture. This writeup will aim to present that big picture. We’ll examine how we got here, the current state of affairs, and some predictions for the future. https://preview.redd.it/owygjsf4tvg61.png?width=227&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea8f629779e8d1509658cbbf2841548dbe1ae458
Part I: Demand for high-end kitchen knives is increasing
It’s hard to nail down exactly why demand has increased. There are many underlying causes and yet each of them individually only goes so far. We’ll consider them in combination to understand the surge.
Online interest in knives is growing
Let’s begin close to home. Here at chefknives, we’re about to reach 100k subscribers. That’s a meteoric rise from a small following just four years ago. Here’s how that growth rate looks: Growth in chefknives subscriber count 2015-present For comparison, here’s that same growth trend compared to two subreddits with about the same subscriber count as of early 2018 (Delaware and Wildlife) Subscriber growth of chefknives (blue) compared to Delaware and Wildlife (green and yellow). Source: subredditstats.com If you look at growth rates across other kitchen knife communities you’ll see similar trends. More people than ever are talking about their favorite work cleaver, looking for an “upgrade” recommendation, or asking how to sharpen their grandpa’s vintage sabatier. We need to be careful in recognizing that these trends play a part in overall growth in phenomena like Reddit, a revival in home cooking, and more. Yet even when compared against these background events, the surge in kitchen knives is remarkable. Reddit approximately doubled its subscribers and posts between 2018-2020. chefknives has doubled three times.
Home cooking was undergoing an early renaissance leading into 2020
It’s no longer the idyllic 1950s. As economic pressure and then cultural allowances pushed traditional gender roles into a more diverse working environment, the reality of the American kitchen became at once more egalitarian and less dedicated. Critics decried the decline of home meals as a loss of culture. More pragmatic Americans saw it as an economic reality. Ultimately that means more of us in the kitchen out of choice. Nowadays it’s unlikely that Redditors here have (or are) a dedicated parent or spouse who stays at home and cooks all the meals. More likely is a sharing of labor in the kitchen; or, where couples take regular home tasks those chores are less likely to be gender-assigned. Furthermore, the amount of couples choosing to have children is trending downward as the age of first-time parents goes up. Fast food and other pre-fabricated meals are cheap and readily available for those who don’t feel like cooking. Working adults are therefore more likely to choose participation in home cooking than ever before. Against this unique backdrop began a rebirth of cooking at home - Google Consumer Surveys from 2015 showed discovery search terms on the rise (“best recipes” saw 50% increases year-over-year) and online populations spending increased time researching recipes. Social media programming like Tasty, Binging with Babish, Laura in the Kitchen, and Maangchi took over our Facebook feeds and YouTube recommendations out of nowhere. Source: Acosta research \"COVID-19: Reinventing How America Eats\" And then, suddenly, home cooking became a necessity for us all. Restaurants closed and grocery stores faced massive supply chain issues shelving their most popular products. A population already casual fans of Bon Appetit and Beat Bobby Flay suddenly found themselves unexpectedly making fermented foods come alive and, while certainly not giving professional chefs a run for their money, then at least discovering their homemade chicken nuggets beat the hell out of Tyson’s frozen imitation. Many of us saw 2020 turn our nascent interest into a favorite daily hobby. So, like the earlier run on toilet paper there began a run on high-end kitchen knives.
Entrenched brands are losing share in the high-end market
Until now I’ve delayed defining what high-end means. What exactly makes a high-end knife? We’re certainly not talking about $15 supermarket knives or the $30 indestructible house knife that line cooks use to chop parsley and open stubborn cans. Rather, we’re speaking of what somebody buys when they want to invest a little more. That’s the chef de commis who wants to start bringing their own knife to work or the home cook staring longingly through the glass front window of a Williams-Sonoma. Unfortunately, once we get more specific about what a high end knife is, people tend to have wildly different standards. I fully anticipate this will be the graphic people seize upon in the comments section, which is why I added descriptive text. That probably won't stop a few screeches about what high-end actually means but, eh, c'est la vie I’m not going to bother saying where high-end knives begin, but for now let’s simplify to somewhere >=$100. This limits us to a handful of brands (at major retailers, at least) and comprises the vast majority of discussed lines here on the sub. If we look at Internet search terms for high-end brands, we see people losing interest in established names that cannot prove their price to performance value. For example, let’s consider Google search rates associated with traditional German brands like “wusthof,” “henckels,” “messermeister,” etc. source: Google Trends All of these terms have seen a slow decline in search interest from 2007 onwards. In comparison, between 2014 and 2018 the interest in “gyuto” increased on average by 50% while more general cooking terms like “recipe” or “saucepan” have seen slow, steady increases. Why are the traditional Solingen brands losing the interest of consumers? One theory is that knife designs are fads like clothing or trendy restaurants - a full-bolster Wüsthof and Nautica jacket may have been all the rage in the early 2000s, but interests simply change over time. If this theory is correct, the current “fad” of Japanese profiles, damascus cladding, Serbian chef knives, etc. are all temporary tastes which will give way to the next fad. A related explanation is that the Red Queen hypothesis is at work - a theory from evolutionary biology that suggests adaptation is necessary just for survival. Indeed, many of the classic lines of these brands have changed little in the past years and certainly the main differences have been cosmetic. This explanation places blame for brand decline on the brand itself rather than consumer preferences. While unpleasant to point fingers, it’s worth exploring the other side of this coin to get a complete picture. In other words, let’s explore brands that are successfully adapting.
The high-end market is pivoting away from Europe and toward Japanese manufacturing
If consumers have a new standard in aesthetic and performance then how can existing brands stay relevant? Large household names like Zwilling, Victorinox, Wüsthof, Kai, and Messermeister have had varying success in introducing new knives in large western retailers. Focusing on the American retail space, we see that knives which successfully embrace the new consumer demand already own or else license pre-existing, non-Western manufacturing. Struggling brands, on the other hand, try to adapt Solingen practice to produce novel designs and the result ranges from “interesting interpretation” to “missed the point.”[1] [2] [3] I won’t try to explain why Wüsthof hasn’t had luck making a competitive nakiri or why Messermeister allowed their awful “usuba” design past the concept phase. Suffice to say, the knives that western retailers are pivoting toward tend to be Japanese imports. This may be occasionally disguised by branding, but make no mistake that these are not German copies. Zwilling simply purchased a large manufacturer in Seki City; it becomes obvious when you put them side-by-side with the other Seki manufacturer sold at major American retailers. Knife lines sold under a German and Japanese brand respectively. Meanwhile, co-opting manufacturing (either by rebranding OEM knives or simply sourcing from the same supply chain) is not exactly a new concept. While this practice is less visible in major brands, it is prolific in the Japanese native market and within smaller retailers in the U.S. For example, take the first design from the Zwilling vs. Kai graphic above and see how it’s copied ad nauseum: I'm not sure how many of these originate from the same knife blanks vs. different sources of steel that just happen to look very, very similar. Okay - so what does this mean for Japanese and European manufacturers? For the Europeans, things are not looking good. Unless they somehow convince consumers that their performance to price ratio is going up (and this is a losing economic proposition at present), then major restructuring of their industry is on the horizon. Meanwhile, the remaining question for Japanese manufacturers is twofold: (1) how do they compete against manufacturing in countries with even lower production cost bases and (2) can they scale up fast enough to deal with this demand? Keep these questions in mind as we’ll soon return to the problem with supply.
Conclusion: the global health crisis caused a run on already sparse supply
The COVID demand surge is unique because potential customers cannot be guided by in-person sales staff toward the high-margin knife they want to sell. Indeed, retail sales of the same Solingen brands listed above have actually been strong even as their internet searches have declined - which is why you continue to find them in malls. So, absent retail staff, interested consumers turned online and the growth rates at chefknives illustrate that. Meanwhile, online communities have been building their following over years. Each community tends to have their favorite brands with some overlap, but this knowledge base tends to be built up over years and decades. That’s because trusted reviews are infrequent (we want more!) and consensus takes time to develop. As consumers turned online, they found communities recommending products already facing scarcity issues. What do you get when combining exponential demand with a shift in consumer preferences for a relatively small market of available knives? A run on supply.
Part II: Supply cannot scale
High-end knife manufacturing is unlike low-end manufacturing
Low-end manufacturing is all about limiting cost and producing volume. Typically parts and processes must work together with high tolerance for error - imagine trying to grind a precise geometry when the heat treatment isn’t even and one portion of the knife abrades more quickly. So, there is almost always a tradeoff in performance for price and production at scale. Workers can be trained in a single task, such as soldering the tang to the blade or inspecting heat-treated batches of blade blanks. Many tasks may be automated altogether with humans only inspecting the results. When most Redditors think “mass production” they likely imagine this kind of manufacturing. Yet “mass production” doesn’t mean low-end by default. Typical factory setting of Japanese knife manufacture. This particular factory produces both low and high-end knives High-end knives can be similarly produced at volume, but the production process is more demanding. With higher performance requirements come lower tolerances for error and this means additional training for workers. Heat treatment must be more exacting so that grinds can fit within tighter parameters. This often requires cross-process knowledge so that the sharpener, forger, and metallurgist each understand and can identify minor discrepancies in the others’ processes. Sometimes the sharpener, forger, metallurgist, and polisher are the same person - though this is less common than marketers would like you to believe. Eventually, workers can specialize in a single aspect like polishing or forging and they become so good that others will solicit their services as part of their own process. So in summary, high-end manufacturing requires more training. Some of that additional training is cross-disciplinary while some is highly specialized. In practice, this means working in various positions across production before settling into a specialty. All that additional training takes years, which is why apprenticeships and decades-long careers are the norm in high-end Japanese manufacturing.
There are limits on how quickly new workers can be trained
Now equipped with understanding of the training required for a high-end manufacturer, we’re ready to dive into the story of a Japanese bladesmith who we’ll call Kenji. It’s 2018 and he wants to scale up production rapidly. First a little bit more about Kenji. He didn’t start his career in bladesmithing - in fact, despite his city being famous for metalworking and knives, everybody told him that industry was moribund back in the 2000s when he went to university. So, he worked his first years designing heavy machinery before a family emergency unexpectedly brought him into the family business. Years later, he has grown into a management role for the production where he has two full-time employees plus an apprentice. One of those employees is the father of his childhood friend. The two families’ knife businesses merged several years ago. Now it’s 2018 and Kenji is seeing demand skyrocket. He knows that even if production doubled, he would have a hard time meeting demand. So, how can he double production as quickly as possible while maintaining approximately equal product quality? In short, he cannot. We’ve already covered how slow training can be, but hiring experienced workers to train them can be equally taxing. That employee whose child was schoolmates with Kenji? None of his sons went into knife making because they saw it as a dead end professionally. Similarly a generation of family businesses shrunk or died out and so Kenji was a dying breed when the market suddenly became hot. Even as knifemaking becomes a viable career once again, finding apprentices is not simple. Many are mindful that consumer interest could quickly return to apathy and such a career does not pay dividends for decades. Kenji’s story is the norm in high-end Japanese production. Even at a breakneck pace, it will take him several years to double production. If the market should falter during this time, it would be disastrous for his business’ solvency. Historical data for "Kenji"
YEAR
EMPLOYEES
PIECES PRODUCED
2014
2
330
2015
2
310
2016
3
335
2017
3
440
2018
3
490
2019
5
570
2020
6
355
Ballpark numbers for the manufacturer Kenji manages. In mid-2018, he began subcontracting the majority of his sharpening and polishing labor and changed his product line to use more prefabricated steels. 2020 saw major business interruptions due to the COVID19 crisis.
Price increases are slowed by the business landscape
Meanwhile, the free market capitalists here on Reddit have been positively wetting themselves waiting to ask “why don’t the knife makers simply raise their prices?” The simple answer is that Japan’s economy is a free market economy in the same way choosing dinner as a family is a free market decision. Piss off your partner and you can guarantee you won’t get any dinner. Of course price increases have been happening over time, but slowly. Many makers are still fulfilling backorders - sellers swap stories about shipments arriving for orders placed years prior. Others are under obligations to sell via wholesalers or trade brokers who behave territorially when vendors or other middlemen encroach on their network. Finally, every maker is conscious of how their prices play into the overall landscape of colleagues and competition. Did you apprentice under another bladesmith? If so, what happens if you start selling your knives for more than him? What message would that send and how would he react? The net effect of this is a market with unusually rigid prices and inflexible scalability. These problems are not intractable, but like all market shortcomings they require time to fix. Beginning in 2020, that time suddenly became equally scarce.
Conclusion: the global health crisis slowed production of an already scarce supply
As the world left the late 2010s, Japanese manufacturing was struggling to scale its production and downstream sellers began to slowly change pricing expectations to meet the new demand surge. Both changes were gradual if not energized - scarce supply was spurring young people into rejoining an industry long thought dead in Japan. Eager young apprentices began showing up to job openings in Sanjo, Seki, and Tokyo for the first time in generations. Then suddenly that already scarce supply lost crucial days of business production as Japan first began implementing workplace hygiene measures before entering a state of emergency from April until May. These along with other interruptions have severely hampered production capabilities during a time when the business pipeline could hardly afford it. The run on supply that we explored at the end of Part I is different than the slow demand increases from the decade prior. Large manufacturers had time to expand operations into China and Indonesia while small manufacturers took on apprentices. OEM practices improved and producers were able to streamline their work over months and years. Everybody lagged a little behind with the promise that soon, supply would begin to scale as young apprentices became journeymen and then master smiths. This run on supply caused a multiplier in demand as production scaled down. Manufacturers no longer lag slightly behind their orders - vendors are reporting it will take years for operations to recover and resume the same pace they had before.
Part III: What’s the future of kitchen knives?
Now we know why the knives are all gone and that the problem is unlikely to be resolved in a few extra months of production. So, what does the future hold for high-end knives? I will propose some educated guesses for what happens over the coming years.
Either Japanese manufacturing practices will scale and expand their industry or else interest will move on - potentially to China, Indonesia, and Vietnam
The Japanese market is already being eaten from both ends. At the very high end, we’re witnessing the rise of custom makers in the US and Europe whose individual pieces command price tags well into the “collectible” range for Japanese knives. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturing is eating into the bottom range of Japan’s knife market with Indonesia and Vietnam closing in. Some of this movement is driven by Japanese companies who outsource low-end manufacturing, but it’s likely that jobs continue to move offshore en masse. The key question is whether Japanese manufacturing can scale quickly enough to preserve their market share at the $100-500 range. The domestic Japanese market likely needs 10-20 years to scale up production. The question is whether foreign manufacturing needs this long to capture market share, even if Japan does manage to scale up eventually. The past five years have seen neighboring countries scaling up their production quality and doubling quantity every few years, so things are not looking great for the domestic Japanese market. Here is a predictive model based on the past five years of growth. Predicted model of market share after 15 years wherein Japan doubles production while China, Indonesia, and Vietnam each double every 3-5 years.
Today’s most popular knife fads will be replaced by new ones
One thing we haven’t mentioned until now are the hangers-on of high-end knives. For example, the prolific Sakai Takayuki VG-10 damascus knives are streamlined imitators of more expensive knives like Anryu or Yu Kurosaki. They take certain aspects like the hammered (tsuchime) finish and suminagashi pattern and build the knife around them, allowing the knife to spread more quickly because of the reduced prices. Yet there are even more extreme imitators coming out of China and Southeast Asia who move faster and are less scrupulous about marketing. They flood Facebook with ads featuring shiny damascus blades with handles so colorful it looks like an M&M mass murder. These companies move massive volume before customers grow wise and thus hasten the lifetime of the fad. For some, it’s an educational experience. For others, they’re just happy they scratched the itch. At any rate, movement like this eventually spells the end of one consumer taste to be replaced with another. So, I predict that the current fads (VG-10 damascus, hammered finishes, serbian chef knives) will soon fade and be replaced by others. One way this prediction might come to pass is that two years from now semi-scam companies will start advertising cheap cu mai (five layer steel with a stripe of nickel) offerings instead of their current Sakai Takayuki imitations. Or maybe it will be a faux kasumi finish or etched core stainless-clad instead.
Successful manufacturers will begin to partner with small, non-Japanese makers to innovate in their designs and production
Zwilling has already done this with Bob Kramer once, so why not again? The most popular U.S. custom makers are struggling to produce at volume, so these partnerships could solve the problem from both ends. I predict we’ll soon see some version of Wüsthof releasing a line of Maumasi-designed blades or Victorinox licensing Don Nguyen’s handles. This will, of course, come with challenges. Knife enthusiasts mostly have bitter tastes in their mouths with the memory of the Shun Ken Onion and members of the forum here have pointed out that ZKramers struggle to produce consistently good geometries. I don’t necessarily predict these partnerships will produce good high-end knives.
Conclusion
The knives are, indeed, all gone. And that’s unlikely to change for the near future. The brand you desperately want to come back into stock will continue to face shortage issues for years and may never come back at all. But that’s okay. Instead, newcomers will soon replace the current favorites. Five years from now, the most sought-after knives will have diversified and new names will replace the old ones slowly. In the past five years, those new names have mostly been Japanese. I suspect the new ones may not be. Until then, may the back in stock notifications be ever in your favor.
So, today I googled „cannabis penny stocks” for some inspiration and came across this Stock. Namaste Technologies is a heavily shorted stock, which has a lot of potential. Also this is my first DD and English is not my native language, so don’t judge me please. So what is Namaste Technologies and what are they doing? Namaste Technologies is a world leading online platform for cannabis products, accessories and education. Their have headquarters in Ontarion, Toronto and further 9 cities all around the world. Namaste is seeking to build the first personalized health and wellness marketplace by offering different types of cannabis products. They currently have 24 websites and 5 warehouses operating in 24 countries around the world. Namaste Technologies has 6 main online platforms, let me introduce them to you. · Cannmart. Cannmart is a huge retail platform, which offers a bunch of CBD and THC sorts. It is the first licensed non cultivator in Canada. Their cannabis is available for every class and every type of person (5-25$/gram depending on the THC%), which makes them very attractive for customers. Furthermore, Cannmart offers edibles of every possible taste, various oils, flowers, concentrates ans so on. They are also selling a bunch of accessories, like Glaswares, vaporizers, vaporizers parts etc. It is also important to mention that their delivery is quick af. If you are from Toronto or Ontario, you can expect your purchased products on the same day. Fort the rest of Canada it takes up to 2 days. Cannmart operates in 17 fucking countries. PS. Namaste technologies owns 49% of Cannmart. Overall, after reading some of the reviews, I would say the avarege rating is 4-4.2 out of 5 stars, which is a good sign comrades. I mean I am not a smoker, but while scrolling trough their website I have developed a desire a rolling a joint, which I will do after finishing this DD. More Info: https://cannmart.com/ · Everyonedoesit: This platforms focuses on high quality glass pieces and vaporizers. Everyonedoesit is based in UK and in the US, but produces their products in the US and Europe. They have an offer of different types of bongs, like percolator bongs. Ice bongs, acrylic bongs and so on. Holy fuck idek the difference between them. Their offer of vaporizers is fascinating as well: desktop vaporizers, portable vaporizers and so on. The company had a bad reputation in the past. There was a stereotype, that everyonedoesit was scamming their customers. And then it was purchased by Namaste Technologies a couple of years ago. Since then everyonedoesit could attract a lof of weed lovers and leaving them satisfied. Overall the rating of their products is 4 out of 5 stars. More Info: https://www.everyonedoesit.co.uk/ · Namaste MD: Namaste MD is a Medical Cannabis Prescription Platform, which provides a safe, simple and easy way to facilitate medical cannabis prescriptions to eligible patients in Canada via telemedicine. On this app/platform you can either make an appointment with a healthcare professional or just take to one of the medical advisors via skype or zoom. So how does it work? You either install a NamasteMD app on you phone or you fill in the application on your computer. Then you have to complete an online video conference with one of the consultants. Then you get approved and boom. You have your prescription and can buy weed freely. Patients gave this app 4.5 stars , since the support (from what I have heard) is amazing. Not to forget that NamasteMD operates very quickly (it takes approximately 3 days to get the prescription. Oh yeah and it is fucking free. NamasteMD is fully owned by Namaste Technologies. · Uppy. Uppy is a new and innovative app for anyone desiring to get the very best from their medical cannabis. Precisely record and monitor anything and everything to do with your medicinal cannabis intake. Doing it, they are trying to optimize your trip. I mean if I lived I Canada and not in Europe, I would definitely install this app. Ratings on app store: 4 out of 5 stars. Uppy is fully owned by Namaste Technologies. More Info: https://www.uppy.com/ · Australia Vaporizers: This platform is the largest Australian Vaporizer provider. Their website is offering all imaginable kinds of vaporizers. They focus on high quality vaporizers, and the price is according to the quality. 500USD should not surprise you if you visit their website. Their shipping is very fast and their support should be amazing. Namaste bought Australian Vaporizers for 6 Million back in 2017. As you can see this is the third company I have mentioned, which was bought by Namaste Technologies. This proves their will to expand and take things on another level. More Info: https://www.australianvaporizers.com.au/ · Namaste Vapes: Namaste Vapes used to be a separate platform, which focuses on 25-40 year olds. However, Namaste Technologies decided to combine Namaste Vapes with Cannmart. So now you can find professionals, which will consultant 25-40 year olds on Cannmart. Fundamentals: • Market Cap: 96million • Float: 320million • Quarterly Revenue Growth: 49% More Info: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXTTF/key-statistics?p=NXTTF Financials: • Revenue of Namaste Technologies is steadily increasing (2017: 11million, 2018: 18million, 2019: 19million, 2020: 19million by august 31st) • Assets: 30million (13million cash). They are reinvesting all there earnings) • Liabilities: 10million by August 31st, last years: 12 million More Info: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXTTF?p=NXTTF Catalysators · Namaste Technologies announced on February 2nd its Expansion into Nutraceuticals Market. How fucking awesome is that? We all know that Mushrooms and shit will be legal and free available in the near future. Namaste Technologies plans to expand their marketplace into Psychedelics. Here you can find some more info about it: https://www.namastetechnologies.com/namaste-technologies-announces-its-evolution-to-a-wellness-company-with-expansion-into-nutraceuticals-market/ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/namaste-technologies-announces-evolution-wellness-223400008.html Namaste Technologies will definitely announce more news in the next few weeks, so stay tuned. This could lead to a boom of this stock. Definitely long term for me. · Namaste Technologies Advances USA Expansion Plans with TSX Exchange Approval to Proceed. So Cannmart may be operating not only in Canada and 17 other countries, but also in the US. This was announced today, that is also the reason for todays upside. Till the end of February it will be announced if Namaste Technologies gets approved or not. This a huge catalysator. Namaste also announced that it will be collaborating with DankStop and PeakBirch Logic, Inc. More Info: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/namaste-technologies-advances-usa-expansion-234900911.html About DankStop: https://dankstop.com/ About PeakBirch Logic, Inc.: https://peakbirch.com/ IF YOU ARE WONDERING WHY THE STOCK HAS BEEN STRUGGLING FOR THE LAST MONTHS I HAVE AN ANSWER FOR YOU Namaste Technologies is being heavily shorted. The short volume ratio is fucking 71% this is why it is struggling. More Info: https://fintel.io/ss/us/nxttf Conclusion: Definitely a long term for me. The price target of yahoo is 0.5, how every I can see it reaching 1 dollar in the next few weeks and above 2-3 dollars in the next few months. This is a great company with a lof of potential. Especially right now weed stock are skyrocketing, this one has not skyrocketed yet but it will soon. This is not pump and dump! Position: 1500 @ 0.210 I strongly recommend you to do your own dd. And sorry once again if there are any grammatical errors. EDIT: Namaste Technologies Inc. owns 100% of Cannmart.
You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments. It all started with the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following articles/books/videos as a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Limited Supply - There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoin created and they are issued in a predictable fashion per the inflation schedule. Once they are all issued Bitcoin will be truly deflationary. The halving countdown tells you how much time until the next drop in block rewards.
Open source - Bitcoin code is fully auditable. You can read and contribute to the source code yourself.
Accountable - The public ledger is transparent, all transactions are seen by everyone.
Decentralized - Bitcoin is globally distributed across thousands of nodes with no single point of failure and as such can't be shut down similar to how Bittorrent works. You can even run a node on a Raspberry Pi.
Censorship resistant - No one can prevent you from interacting with the bitcoin network and no one can censor, alter or block transactions that they disagree with, see Operation Chokepoint.
Push system - There are no chargebacks in bitcoin because only the person who owns the address where the bitcoin resides has the authority to move them.
Low fee scaling - Most wallets calculate on chain fees automatically but you can view fee estimates and mempool activity if you want to set your fee manually. On chain fees may rise occasionally due to network demand, however instant micropayments that do not require confirmations are happening via the Lightning Network, a second layer scaling solution currently rolling out on the Bitcoin mainnet.
Borderless - No country can stop it from going in/out, even in areas currently unserved by traditional banking as the ledger is globally distributed.
Trustless - Bitcoin solved the Byzantine's Generals Problem which means nobody needs to trust anybody for it to work.
Secure - Blocks and transactions are cryptographically secured (using hashes and signatures) and can’t be brute forced or confiscated with proper key management such as hardware wallets.
Programmable - Individual units of bitcoin can be programmed to transfer based on certain criteria being met
Nearly instant - From a few seconds on the lightning network to a few minutes on-chain depending on need for confirmations. Transactions are irreversible by normal users after one confirmation and irreversible by anyone (including miners) after 6 confirmations.
Portable - Bitcoin are digital so they are easier to move than cash or gold. They can be transported by simply carrying a seed (a string of 12 to 24 words) on a device or by memorizing it for wallet recovery (while cool, memorizing is generally not recommended due to potential for forgetting the seed and the potential for insecure key generation by inexperienced users. Hardware wallets are the preferred method for most users for their ease of use and additional security).
Scalable - While the protocol is still being optimized for increased transaction capacity, blockchains do not scale very well, so most transaction volume is expected to occur on Layer 2 networks built on top of Bitcoin.
Divisible - Each bitcoin can be divided down to 8 decimals, which means you don't have to worry about buying an entire bitcoin.
Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
You can also purchase in cash with local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage. Note: Bitcoin are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year.
Securing your bitcoin
With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoin OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoin for you.
If you prefer to "Be your own bank" and have direct control over your coins without having to use a trusted third party, then you will need to create your own wallet and keep it secure. If you want easy and secure storage without having to learn computer security best practices, then a hardware wallet such as the Trezor, Ledger or ColdCard is recommended.
If you cannot afford a hardware wallet there are many software wallet options to choose from depending on your use case. Mobile wallets like BlueWallet are generally more secure than desktop wallets. Beware of fake mobile wallets and check reviews from reputable Bitcoin websites. Avoid paper wallets or brain wallets.
If you prefer to let third party "Bitcoin banks" manage your coins, try Gemini or Unchained Capital but be aware you may not be in control of your private keys in which case you would have to ask permission to access your funds and be exposed to third party risk. There is a saying in the community, "Not your keys, not your coins" meaning if you don't store your coins in a wallet that you control the keys to then you do not really own your bitcoin as you have to ask permission from the third party in order to move them.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email! 2FA requires a second confirmation code or a physical security key to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes. Avoid using your cell number for 2FA. Hackers have been using a technique called "SIM swapping" to impersonate users and steal bitcoin off exchanges.
Physical security keys (FIDO U2F) offer stronger security than Google Auth / Authy and other TOTP-based apps, because the secret code never leaves the device and it uses bi-directional authentication so it prevents phishing. If you lose the device though, you could lose access to your account, so always use 2 or more security keys with a given account so you have backups. See Yubikey or Titan to purchase security keys. Both Coinbase and Gemini support physical security keys.
Watch out for scams
As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the r / btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. As they say in our community, "Don't trust, verify".
Avoid using ad-based search engines like Google or Yahoo: ads are shown based on how much the advertiser bids, and scammers can easily outbid legitimate providers for ad space, since immoral ways of earning money are far more lucrative than moral ways. Use DuckDuckGo instead, which has no ads, and never tracks you as well.
Ignore private messages offering services.
Never enter your seed words in a website of any kind. Hardware wallets will recover by displaying possible seed words on their own interface, never on a website.
Always check addresses on your hardware wallet before sending or receiving. Some malware has been known to replace addresses in your web browser or that you copy-and-paste.
Avoid clicking on links like that look like links, such as https://www.google.com/, without first hovering over it and actually checking where they go to. Just because a link is labelled with an HTTPS address does not mean it actually sends you to that address. It is trivial for someone to comment a link on Reddit that looks like it will send you to one website when it actually sends you to another, and you might not notice the difference until a scammer has gotten all your money, or you have downloaded and installed software that steals your money.
Common Bitcoin Myths
Often the same concerns arise about Bitcoin from newcomers. Questions such as:
Is Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme?
Will governments ban Bitcoin?
Will quantum computers break Bitcoin?
All of these questions have been answered many times by a variety of people. Here are some resources where you can see if your concern has been answered:
Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card or Fold card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Gift cards for thousands of retailers worldwide including Amazon, Target, Walmart, Starbucks, Whole Foods, CVS, Lowes, Home Depot, iTunes, Best Buy, Sears, Kohls, eBay, GameStop, etc.
There are several benefits to accepting bitcoin as a payment option if you are a merchant;
1-3% savings over credit cards or PayPal.
No chargebacks (final settlement in 10 minutes as opposed to 3+ months).
Accept business from a global customer base.
Increased privacy.
Convert 100% of the sale to the currency of your choice for deposit to your account, or choose to keep a percentage of the sale in bitcoin if you wish to begin accumulating it.
If you are interested in accepting bitcoin as a payment method, there are several options available;
Mining bitcoin can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read the mining FAQ. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out. If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node. You can view the global node distribution for a visual representation of the node network.
Earning bitcoin
Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoin by being paid to do a job.
You can also earn bitcoin by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoin for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoin).
Bitcoin-Related Projects
The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
Unit
Symbol
Value
Info
bitcoin
BTC
1 bitcoin
one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
millibitcoin
mBTC
1,000 per bitcoin
used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
bit
bit
1,000,000 per bitcoin
colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
satoshi
sat
100,000,000 per bitcoin
smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
0.001 BTC
1 mBTC
1,000 bits
100k sats
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki. Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit. Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval. Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
How To Value A Stock (From Someone Who Has Beaten The S&P Almost Every Year Since 2008)
I recently wrote this up for my friends who asked me how I do what I do. I figured I'd share it here. This is freely available to anyone who wants it, though please credit me if you simply copy/paste. Nothing here is novel, and can be done by anyone. I am not a financial professional, and the example given below is only Abbvie because I forgot that Abbott Labs was alphabetically the first in the S&P 500 when picking an example. First, let’s come right out and say that if you do not have the time to do this, or do not find it enjoyable, just buy low-cost index funds that track either the total market or the S&P 500. Second, let’s make an important distinction: Investing – This is the act of purchasing assets for less than their intrinsic value. This PDF will focus on how to determine the intrinsic value of an asset that produces income. Note that for most assets, this is simply how much money you can extract from the asset over the period of time that you hold it for. There’s no other value than money in investing. Causes and emotions are what philanthropy is for. Speculating – This is, at its core, the act of taking supply of an asset from the present to the future (by hoarding it). If there is more demand, lower supply, or both, this pays the speculator to take the asset from a period of low value to one of high value. It is not gambling, but is very difficult to do, since it entails taking on timing risk. It is not illegal, immoral, or impossible, but I have no special insight into it. I’ll leave it there. Gambling – This looks a lot like speculation, but without any particular reason to believe the asset will be more valuable in the future. Speculators at least estimate the value of an asset to investors, as they are ultimately the end market for an asset. Do not gamble. Full stop. Determining the intrinsic value of an asset The value of an asset is simply the present value of all future income that asset can provide you. Since a dollar in five years is naturally less valuable than a dollar today, you have to discount future income against the opportunity cost of forgoing the dollars you invest today. When we get to the Present Value equation, this is represented by interest. It can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of investing in the asset instead of some other asset or simply consuming the dollars instead. Here’s the actual math. Note that it’s not super hard, and while I will explain it, there are dozens of free websites that will quickly let you calculate this. The key phrase to Google would be “present value of a growing annuity calculator.” PV = (C / i - G) * {1 – [(1 + G)/(1 + i)]^n} PV = present value C = cash flow per period n = number of payments i = interest rate G = growth rate The value for PV is your estimation of what the asset is worth today. If this ends up far higher than the market price, you are probably purchasing dollars for quarters. Avoid edge cases, as you are guessing about both the interest and growth rate. C is the cash flow per period. If you have a high degree of confidence in the culture of the company and it has a long history of being good stewards of retained earnings, you can use the earnings per share (EPS). I usually use the dividend. It is impossible to fake or financially engineer a dividend, and requires less looking through financial documents to make sure it’s what it appears to be. But for, say, Apple or Microsoft or Chevron, feel free to use the EPS. The number of payments is how many payments you expect while holding the asset. Dividends in American companies are typically quarterly (though some pay monthly or every six months, so check on that), so every multiple of four would represent one year if you choose to do it that way. If n = 16, then you’re expecting to hold the asset for 4 years. You can also put in a year’s worth of dividends and keep n = years rather than quarters. I typically do n = 30, since 30 years is both a long time horizon that is realistic, and coincides when I will hit “retirement age.” You will have to decide how far ahead you’re planning. For most people, they are net purchasers of investments while working and net sellers while retired, so keep that in mind. Note that using years instead of quarters will lessen the amount of compounding, and will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong. Interest is one of the two variables you have to guess at. Typically, one would put what you expect the actual long-run interest rate to average for this investment. Unfortunately, this is really difficult. Instead, I use a rate that represents my opportunity cost. There are any number of relatively safe ways to get a 5% yield on money invested, so I generally use i = 5% to represent that this asset has to perform better than a utility or telecom or real estate investment trust. Feel free to use what you feel is most appropriate for you. A higher interest rate will lower the value of the asset, so high-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong. The second variable you have to guess at is the growth rate. If you’re looking at the dividend, you want to know how fast to expect it to grow over time. If you’re using the EPS for C, then you want to see how quickly the total earnings are growing per share. This is extremely difficult to predict. I recommend taking the 5-year growth rate and halving it. Dividends will also be more predictable here, as most companies pay out far less than they make, which means even if EPS grows slowly, the dividend can still grow quickly for many years after a boom is over for the company. Note that lowering your estimate for G will lower the value of the asset, so low-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong. OK, so let’s walk through an example. I’ll use Abbvie, a biotech/pharmaceutical company. It has a quarterly dividend for the coming year of $1.30/share. Its dividend has an 18.5% growth rate over the last 5 years, and has grown it for the last 7 (it’s only been around for 8 years). I assumed a growth rate (G) of 7%. I used $5.20 as the starting dividend this coming year and used years for my n = 30. As always, I used i = 5%. This gave me an estimated present value of 1 share of Abbvie at $197.94. As of writing this, Abbvie shares are trading on the market at $103.43. This looks like a screaming buy, but first let’s look at why I have a high degree of confidence. Note how the interest was higher than the going rate – I used my “low-risk alternative” as an opportunity cost. Abbvie has an extremely high rate of growth for its dividend, so I took less than half of its current rate. I also calculated annually rather than quarterly, which reduces the impact of high rates of growth. That’s three places in the equation where I consciously lowered the estimated value of a share of Abbvie, and it still came out as a strong buy – spending less about 50c for a dollar! I do this because even if I’m wrong in some or all of my predictions, I now have quite a bit of room to be wrong and still make money. It’s like how you don’t walk next to a steep cliff, right? You should know how to walk where you want to, but there’s always the small chance something could cause you to slip or put a foot wrong. But if your plan is always to be 5 feet away from the edge of the cliff, the odds are that you’ll not go over the edge even if you fall down. Many people feel this is over cautious. But let my portfolio speak for itself. I’ve beaten the S&P 500 index fund every year except one since 2008. My brokerage only keeps digital records back to Dec 2015, but the S&P 500 returned 101% since then – with dividends reinvested. My own portfolio has returned 256%. So caution is still very high reward. In fact, if you just don’t lose, you’ll do better than the vast majority of professional money managers (about 85% of whom cannot even match the index funds). Due diligence still has to occur Now, we can’t just go straight out and buy Abbvie – though it’s a high profile company that receives lots of investor and regulator scrutiny so it’s less likely to have a landmine than most. Just to make sure, you’ll want to do the following before buying shares in this company: -Check the debt load. If the debt is very high, has very high interest rates, or has a lot of it maturing very soon, then this is a yellow flag. It doesn’t mean don’t buy, but make sure you understand the structure of the company’s debt and make sure it won’t impair the company’s earnings going forward. This information is found on the balance sheet. Abbvie has $97.287 billion in long-term liabilities such as debt, pension liability, and deferred taxes. That’s a lot compared to their assets, but they also are owed some money, so it nets out about $90 billion. -What’s the book value? Book value is fairly low at $8.65/share. This is pretty much the assets minus the liabilities. Abbvie is in a knowledge industry, however, so you shouldn’t expect their main assets to be physical capital that can be sold. It’s mostly organizational or human capital from their workforce, so this isn’t worrying. If Abbvie was, say, a retailer with stores and land and inventory, you’d want this to be much, much higher for the share price. There’s no easy way to judge this one, unfortunately, but it’s good to look it up and you’ll eventually get a feel for it. No red flags here. -What are the catastrophic risks that even you or I could think of? For a company in the pharmaceutical space, the obvious answer is regulatory and political risk. Regulatory risk is just want it sounds like – more regulation which can be either costly to comply with or lower profits. This does have an upside, which is that it makes it harder for new competitors to enter a market, so I tend to be rather sanguine about regulatory risk. Political risk is much more severe. This is when politicians decide to either confiscate a company, target it specifically rather than the industry it’s in, or other ways in which the government is involved with taking rather than regulating. In Anglo countries (US/UK/Canada/Australia), the rule of law is typically strong enough that this doesn’t happen much, as there is usually some kind of due process. Places like China, Argentina, Russia, and the EU are much more likely to nationalize or otherwise capriciously penalize a company due to the prevailing political winds. Abbvie has a global footprint, but that also means it’s diversified against such risk. It’s headquartered in the US, so it’s unlikely someone will simply take the entire company. -Payout ratio? Abbvie has a fairly high payout ratio (80% for the last completed fiscal year of 2019), as they have been aggressively growing the dividend. That’s another good reason to input a much lower G than the last few years. That being said, Abbvie has been around for 8 years (it was spun off of Abbott Labs) and has grown its dividend for the last 7 years and has announced it will this coming year as well. The payout ratio is pretty high, but not worrisome. It suggests a fairly mature company that’s now returning cash to shareholders. I’d say this is not nothing, but less than a yellow flag for me. Any company with 95%+ payout ratio is much more vulnerable to a dividend cut. -Credit rating? S&P gives Abbvie a BBB+ grade for its unsecured debt. This is a slight downgrade because their balance sheet is currently digesting a big acquisition from early 2020 (Allergan). Moody’s gives it a Baa2 rating for unsecured debt. These are both good, solid, investment-grade credit ratings (if you were buying the bonds of Abbvie). This looks great. -Does it need a genius? Some companies run on all cylinders because they have a genius at the helm – often a founder. But what you want is a company any dummy can run, because sooner or later any dummy will. Don’t plan to invest long-term in companies that require skilled management. Abbvie is fairly diversified and has an OK pipeline of research. They also can buy little biotech companies that invent something but can’t navigate the regulations to bring it to market. So pondering giants are actually a good thing. Means they’re hard to break. So, given that there was nothing obviously treacherous in our basic due diligence, and the extreme discount at which our example is selling for, this would be one you might want to buy! This is what I do for all the companies I invest in. Notice that there is no story, no excitement, no narrative, no counting on good or bad management. Emotion has no place in investing. You also will notice that we took every opportunity to reduce the risk of losing your capital by always sandbagging the estimated value of the company. You never want to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. You want the investment to be so obvious it hits you in the face like a baseball bat. If you’re ever on the fence, don’t do it. You don’t have to hit home runs – just don’t strike out. You can be even more conservative in your estimates than I am. If, for instance, you used 5% growth rate for Abbvie’s dividend, you’d still get a present value of $148.57/share vs the current market price of $103.43. Similarly, you could use a higher interest rate, which would also lower the estimated present value. You may have to do this calculation with more companies to find one to buy, but even in a very expensive market like today’s, there is always an opportunity. You don’t even have to look at little companies. There’s around 500 companies in the S&P – just start with “A” and work your way through all of them. A quick note about further reading: I very strongly urge most people to actually read as little as possible on this subject once they get the basics. That’s not because there’s not more to learn, but because I would sadly say the majority of what I see and hear is actively bad advice. But if you do want to keep up with financial news and books and chat boards, the best thing to do is find out what the historical returns of the person giving advice are. Since WWII, the long-run return on the S&P 500 has generally been just a bit shy of 10% per year. If someone can’t beat that, year-in-and-year-out, then their advice is worthless. As in, you don’t want to accidentally absorb it. This is, unfortunately, true for most professionals. Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of actively managed funds have underperformed a simple S&P 500 index fund (and they charge you fees for the privilege). Beware anyone selling something. The advice here is given freely That’s why I made a point of mentioning that I have and regularly outperform the standard fund almost every year. Granted, I don’t have many of the regulatory restrictions a public fund would have, but it shows how useful the advice I’m giving here is. You don’t need anything fancy. You don’t need anything high risk. I’ve done this through two deep recessions and the longest bull market in history. If you want to learn more about investing in general and where I learned how to do this, you can read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. It was written in the 1930s, so much of the technical information is out of date. Skip over that and just read it for the concepts. Even easier reading is to go online to Berkshire Hathaway’s website and pull Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s annual letter to shareholders. Almost all of them have something useful in them and don’t make you do equations. I am available for questions in the comments
$SNE, MASSIVE DOUBLE DICK INSIDE. Poised to moon long-term (Computer vision boom, EV boom, autonomous driving tech, gaming boom, music streaming boom, cross-media IP, vertically integrated anime streaming monopoly, online medical services boom, shift to mirrorless cameras)
Listen up retards. Do you happen to feel regret because you always think “ohhh if I yoloed my savings on TSLA/AMD/NVDA 🚀 leaps years ago I could be rich by now!!!” Well if you didn't know already, it doesn’t really matter what happened in the past. Hindsight will always be 20/20. You shouldn’t be harsh on yourself on your past self that your past self wasn’t retarded enough to yolo their savings into AMD/TSLA/.... Your past self doesn’t have the same knowledge that your current self has. It’s fine. If you judged those stocks with the best DD you could do at the time and didn’t think they were worth it, then you did a good job. If you always think about what you could/should have done in the past, then you don't have the right attitude to play the stock market casino imho. The single most important thing is to be able to look ahead. There are always plenty of opportunities around. There are thousands of rockets that are still on earth right now. Some may depart this year, others will stay a little longer on earth. The true strength lies in being able to identify those rockets with the knowledge you have right now. And if you still miss most rockets that will take-off this year that's fine, maybe you'll learn, get better and you'll do better next year. Now, what if I told you there’s a big rocket that’s parked right right here on earth and it has decent chance for take-off this year? Maybe it won't quite reach the moon this year yet, but hey leaving the exosphere should already be a cool milestone. It has rock-solid fundamentals and will see lots of growth in the following years/decade. It’s a company that has the fundamental technology to power all the computer vision tech, which is bound to boom this decade. The company we’re talking about is of course Sony, and it is extremely undervalued right now. Its P/E is only 14. They have a P/S of 1.65, a PEG of 0.92 (< 2 is already somewhat exceptional for a company/conglomerate of Sony’s size, under 1 is a steal) Much lower than all of its same-sector peers. This indicates significant undervaluation. Next up Sony has a P/CF 13.2, ROE of 20% (S&P 500 average is 14% which would already be considered pretty good. 20% ROE is excellent), PEGY of 0.89, P/B of 2.65 and finally Sony has $41.6B in cash on hand. This makes Sony one of the cheapest tech/entertainment/EV/semiconductor growth stocks you will find on the market. (ROE of 20% + PEGY of 0.89 + PEG of 0.92 means this company is a growth stock based on the numbers alone, but we’ll dig into the actual company and overall outlook in a moment) I challenge all retards to find a company with similar benchmarks in one of the mentioned sectors, seriously. Quite frankly doing this DD honestly blew my mind. I kept looking everywhere for reasons why the company could be so undervalued and why they may struggle in the future. Very important to look at all the challenges the company faces to make sure I’m not just doing confirmation bias DD. But all I could find was the opposite. After several weeks and months of working on this DD, I can only conclude that it is overall a very solid company for a bargain price. The new CEO is taking the company in a great direction imho and I'm begin to think he could be Sony's Satya Nadella. So if you want some easy tendies, maybe consider $SNE while it is still cheap, I’d say. For the autists out there who care about analyst ratings, SONY ($SNE) currently has 18 BUY ratings, 2 OVERWEIGHT, 4 HOLD and 0 SELL. (= analyst consensus is a STRONG BUY). Very little analysts cover this stock compared to other entertainment/tech companies, so this adds to my assertion that the stock is very much under the radar. Which means you have time to get in before it gets noticed by the larger investing world and before it starts to get a more fair valuation (P/E of around 30 would be more fair for this company I think, but still cheaper than many same sector peers). But, anyway the few analysts who do happen to cover this company are basically all saying it’s an instant-buy at its current price. Most boomer investors still think big Japanese tech companies are dinosaurs that have long been surpassed by China, South Korea and Apple etc ages ago. Young boomers may think Sony = PlayStation and that it's it. But the truth is that PlayStation, while very important (about 24% of Sony's total revenue last year), is a part of a larger story. Lots of investors in general associate Sony with the passé Japanese electronics companies from the 80’s and the 90’s. Just like a lot people may think BlackBerry is a struggling phone company. While Sony may not be the powerhouse in consumer electronics it was in the 80’s and the 90’s, in a lot of ways they are more relevant than ever before. Despite being a well-known brand and being known as the company behind PlayStation, for some reason its stock still seems to be under the radar among both retail and institutional investors. And boy, are they mind-blowingly undervalued. Even if a big part of its business would collapse tomorrow, they would still be slightly undervalued. And I am about to tell you why. (& btw compared to Japanese tech/entertainment stocks $SNE is still super cheap (Canon, Nikon, Toshiba, Sharp, Panasonic, Square Enix, Capcom, Nintendo, Fujitsu all have P/E ratios ranging from 18 to 77 and none of them have the combination of global clout, fundamentals & growth prospects that Sony has)) 2021 Sony as a corparation is not the fucking Sony from 2005-2015’s, just like BlackBerry in 2021 is not the fucking Blackberry from 2012. Just like Garmin in 2021 is not Garmin from 2011. Just like AMD in 2021 is not AMD from 2012. No, in 2021, Sony is the global leader in imaging technology and people do not fucking realize it. Sony has 50% marketshare in the CMOS image sensor market. There’s a very good chance the smartphone in your pocket has Sony image sensors (unless it’s a Samsung phone). Sony image sensors are powering a big part of today's vision/camera technology. And they will power even more of tomorrow's computer vision tech. In 2021, Sony is a behemoth in video games, music, anime, movies and TV show production. Sony is present in every segment of entertainment. Sony’s entertainment branches have been doing great business over the past 5 years, especially music and PlayStation. Additionally, Sony Pictures has completely turned around. In 2021, Sony is the world’s biggest music publisher (and second biggest music company overall). Music streaming has been a boon for Sony Music and will continue to be. In 2021, Sony is among the biggest mobile gaming companies in the world (yes, you read that right). And it’s mainly thanks to one game (Fate/Grand Order) that nets them over $1B revenue each year. One of the biggest mobile gaming companies + arguably biggest gaming brand in the world (PlayStation). In 2021, Sony is an EV company. They surprised the world when they revealed their “Vision-S” at CES 2020. At the reception was fantastic. It is seriously one of the best looking EV’s. They already sell sensors to Toyota. Sony will most like sell the Vision-S's tech to other car manufacturers (sensors for driving assistence / autonomous driving, LiDAR tech, infotainment system). 40 sensors in the Sony Vision-S Considering the overwhelmingly good reception of the Vision-S so far, I suspect the Vision-S could be another catalyst that will put Sony as a company on the radar of investors and consumers. We've seen insane investment hype for anything even remotely related to EV over the past year. We've seen a company that barely had a few EV design concepts (oh wait, they had a gravity-powered truck though) even get a $30B market cap at some point lmao. But somehow a profitable company ($SNE) that has an EV that you can actually drive, doesn't even have a fair valuation? In 2020’s Sony’s brand value is at their highest point since 12 years. In 2021, it is projected to be a its highest point since 2001 assuming same growth as average yearly growth from 2015 to 2020. Keep in mind brand valuation is a bit bullshitty as there’s no standardization to compare brands from different sectors, let alone non-consumer-facing brands with consumer-facing brands. But one thing we can note is that Sony both as B2C brand and as a B2B company is on a big upwards trend. https://interbrand.com/best-global-brands/sony/ https://careers.uw.edu/blog/2020/03/17/these-are-the-10-biggest-video-game-companies-in-north-america-shared-article-from-zippia/ In 2021, Sony is an entertainment behemoth. They have grown their entertainment branches by a huge amount over the past 5 to 10 years (they made some big acquisitions in the music space especially and they’re now also all-in in anime). I don’t think people realize how big Sony is as an entertainment company. I dug up the numbers and as of Q3 2020, PlayStation is the second biggest video game company in the world (Tencent is #1) in revenue (I suspect Sony might dethrone Tencent after Sony’s FY Q3 2020 is released). But Sony already comes very close to Tencent especially if you add Fate/Grand Order (which is under Sony Music and not under PlayStation) under PlayStation. There’s no single other company that has this unique combination of a dominant/important position in all entertainment segments. (video games + music + movies + TV series + anime + TV networks). I guess Tencent maybe? In 2021, Sony has amazing momentum in the camera space. If you’re familiar with the enthusiast photography space, you should know this. Basically, the market is slowly shifting from SLR to mirrorless cameras. This is because mirrorless cameras tend to smallelighter, have faster AF, better low light performance, better battery life and better video performance. Sony is the company that has been specializing in the development for mirrorless cameras for over a decade while Canon’s bread and butter has always been SLR cameras. Sony is in the lead when it comes to mirrorless cameras and that’s where the market is shifting towards. Because the advantages of mirrorless have become more and more apparent and Sony’s cameras have become technically superior, Sony has gained quite a bit of market share over Canon and Nikon in the last few years. In 2019, Sony overtook Nikon as the #2 camera manufacturer. Sony is in an upwards trend here. (they have the ambition to become the world’s #1 camera brand) Sony also has very good marketing for their cameras. (Sony has a lot of YouTubers / influencers / brand ambassadors for their cameras despite being a smaller brand than Canon) (just search on YouTube and/or Google “switching to Sony from Canon” just to give you an idea that they do have amazing brand momentum in the camera space. You won’t get as many hits for the opposite) A huge portion of Sony’s profit comes from image sensors in addition to music and video games. This is in addition to their highly profitable financial holdings division & their more moderately profitable electronics division. Sony’s electronics division, unlike other Japanese brands, has shown great resilience against the very strong competition from China & South Korea. They have been able to maintain their position in the audio space and as of 2020 are still the global market leader in high-end TV’s (a position they have been holding for decades) and it seems they will continue to be able to maintain that. But seriously this company is dirt-cheap compared to any of its peers in any segment and there’s various huge growth prospects for Sony:
CMOS image sensors & Sony’s overall imaging prowess will boom due to increased demand from automotive sector, security & surveillance industry, manufacturing industry, medical sector and finally from the aerospace & defence industry. On the longer term, image sensors will continue to boom due to increased demand for computer vision & AI + robotics. And for consumer electronics demand will remain very high obviously.
Sony is aiming for 60% market share in the CMOS image sensor market by 2026. Biggest threat here is Samsung here who have recently started to aggressively invest in image sensors and are challenging Sony. Sony has technological lead + higher production capacity (and Sony will soon open a new plant in Nagasaki), so Sony should be able to hold off Samsung.
The iPhone 12 Pro has 3 cameras + a lidar sensor. Apple now buys 3 image sensors (from Sony) + LiDAR sensor (from Sony) per iPhone 12 Pro they manufacture. Remember the iPhone X and iPhone XS? That one had “only” 2 rear cameras (with image sensos from Sony of course). Basically, Sony will be selling exponentially more image sensors as more smartphones get equipped with more and more cameras.
Now think about how many image sensors Sony can sell to Apple if the iPhone 13 will have 5 cameras + LiDAR sensor (I mean the number of cameras on smartphones certainly won’t decrease)
Gaming (PS5 hype, PSN game sales are booming, add-on content is booming, PS+ subscribers count is booming and finally PSNow & first-party games sales are trending upwards as well). Very consistent year-on-year profit & revenue growth here. They have a history of beating earnings expectations here. The number of PS+ subscribers went from 4M to 48M in just 6-7 years. Investors love to hype up recurring revenue and subscription services such as Disney+ and Netflix. Let’s apply the same logic to PS+? PS+ already has more subscribers than HBO Max in the USA.
PlayStation (video games in general) has not even scratched the fucking surface. Most people who play video games now are millennials and kids. Do you think those millennials will stop playing video games when they grow older? No, of course not. Boomers today also still watch movies and TV. Those millennials have kids and those kids are now also playing video games. The kids of those kids will also play video games etc. Basically the total addressable audience for video games will by HUGE by the end of the decade (and the decades after that) because video games will have penetrated all age ranges of the population. Gaming is the fastest growing segment of the whole entertainment business. By a large margin. PlayStation is obviously in a great position here as you can guess from the PS5 hype, but more importantly imho, the growth of PS+ subscribers (currently a bit under 50 million) and PSN users (>100 million MAU) over the past 5 years shows that PlayStation is primed to profit from the audience growth.
On top of that you have huge video game growth in the China where Sony & PlayStation is already much better established than Xbox (but still super small compared to mobile games and PC gaming in China). Within the console market, Xbox only competes with PlayStation in North America. In the rest of the world, PlayStation has an enormous lead over Xbox. Xbox is simply a lesser known and lesser desirable brand in the rest of the world
Anime streaming (basically they have a monopoly already + vertical integration, it might still be somewhat niche right now, but it will be big within 5 years. Acquiring Crunchyroll was a very good move)
Music streaming (no, they don’t have a music streaming service, but as music streaming grows, Sony Music also gets a piece of the growing pie through licensing/royalties, and they also still have a little 2.8% stake in Spotify)
Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T and Disney are currently battling it out in the streaming wars. When there’s a war you have little chances of winning, you shouldn’t be the one waging the war. You should be the one selling the ammo. Basically Sony Pictures (tv shows + movies) is in that position. Sony Pictures can negotiate good prices for their content because Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T are thirsty for content and they all want their own exclusive content. Sony Pictures does not need to prop up their own streaming service just like Sony Music doesn’t need their own music streaming service when they can just license out their content and turn a profit. There will always be demand for TV & movies content, so Sony Pictures is well positioned is as an independent content provider. And while Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T and Disney are battling it out on the forefront, Sony is quietly building their anime empire in the background. Genius business move from Sony here, seriously. They now have anime production & distribution.
Netflix has 200M subscribers and they currently have a 250M market cap. Think about what Sony will have in 5 years? >30M Crunchyroll subscribers (assuming all anime will be consolidated into Crunhyroll) & >100M PS+ & PSNow subscribers? Anime and gaming is growing faster than movies and TV shows. (9% CAGR for anime, 12% CAGR for gaming vs. 5% CAGR for the whole movies & TV show entertainment segment which includes PVOD, SVOD, box office, TV etc etc). And gaming as a whole is MUCH bigger than SVOD streaming. Netflix gets 99% of their revenue & profit through subscriptions. For the whole Sony Group Corporation, their subscription services (games + anime) it’s currently only 4.5% of their total revenue. And somehow Sony currently has a meagre $128B market cap?
PlayStation alone is bigger than Netflix in terms of operating profit. PlayStation has a MUCH higher profit margin than Netflix. For Q3 2020 Netflix posted $790M operating profit and PlayStation posted $988M operating profit. Revenue was was $6.44B for Netflix vs. $4.77B for PlayStation. (and btw Sony’s mobile gaming revenue (~$1B / year) is under Sony Music, it is not even in those PlayStation numbers!!!)
Think about it. PlayStation alone posts bigger operating profit than Netflix (yes revenue is bit smaller, but it’s the operating profit that matters most). And gaming is growing faster than movies. And PlayStation is about 24% of Sony’s total revenue. And yet Netflix has a market cap that is equal to the double of Sony's market cap? Basically If you apply Netflix’ valuation to PlayStation then PlayStation alone should have a bigger market cap than Netflix' market cap.
Sony Vision-S & autonomous driving tech (selling sensors + infotainment system to other car manufacturers). Sony surprised everyone when they revealed their Sony Vision-S electric vehicle last year at CES 2020 (in-house design and made in cooperation with Magna Steyr). And it’s currently being tested on public roads. Over the past year we have seen absurdly big investment hype into anything even remotely related to EV’s (including a few questionable companies). We’ve even seen an EV company with a gravity-powered truck get a $30B market cap in June last year. Meanwhile Sony, out of nowhere, revealed what is arguably (subjectively) one of the best looking EV’s. It got very positive reception at CES 2020. An EV that you can actually drive. But somehow their stock is still dirt-cheap based on their current fundamentals alone? Yet some companies that had pretty much nothing but some EV design concepts got insane valuations purely due to hype?
LTE chips for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Altair Semiconductors)
Cross-media IP (The Last of Us show on HBO, Uncharted movie etc). Huge unrealized potential synergy here (it’s about to change). We have seen that it can turn out super well when you look at The Witcher, Sonic the Hedgehog and Detective Pikachu. When The Witcher released on Netflix, sales of The Witcher 3 significantly increased again. Imagine the same thing, but with Sony IP’s. Sony Pictures is currently working on 7 video game IP based TV shows and 3 movies. We know The Last of Us tv series is currently in production for HBO. And then the Uncharted is currently in post-production and scheduled to be released in July this year currently. If Uncharted turns out to be successful, it will mark a big, new milestone for Sony as an entertainment company imho.
Aniplex (Sony Music Entertainment Japan subsidiary for anime production, distribution & mobile games) had a fantastic year in 2020. (more on this later) There is a lot of room for mobile games growth with Aniplex. Thanks to Aniplex, Sony might beat their earnings forecast.
Drones. DJI just got put on Entity List in USA and Sony started developing drones for prosumer / professional a few years ago. Big opportunity for Sony here to take a bit from DJI’s dominance. It only makes sense for Sony to enter the drone market targeting the professional & prosumer video market, considering Sony’s established position in the professional audio/video/photography space
Currently Sony also has several ventures & investments in AI & robotics
Over the past decade, Sony has also carefully expanded into medical equipment tech & biotechnology. Worth noting that Sony also has an important 33% stake in M3 inc (a medical services through-the-internet company with a market cap of $65.5B) (= just their stake in M3 Inc is worth $22B alone, remember Sony, with their large, diversified revenue streams & assets only has a market cap of $128B?)
Sony Pictures has a great upcoming movie slate (MCU Spider-Man, Uncharted, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Venom 2, Morbius, Spider-Verse sequel, Hotel Transylvania 4, Peter Rabbit 2, Vivo, The Nightingale). They will profit from the theatre reopening and covid recovery. They may even become more favourable among movie theatre chains because they won’t release their movies on the same day on streaming services like Warner (and yeah movie theatres are here to stay, at least for a while imho)
All the above comes on top of established, mature markets (Financial Holdings & Electronic Products)
Oh yeah, btw though TV’s are a cyclical and mature market and are not that important for Sony Group Corporation’s bottomline*, Sony TV’s will continue to do well for the following successive years: o 2020: continued pandemic boost
2020-2021: PS5 / Xbox Series X/S
2021 Summer Olympics (tv sales ALWAYS spike during the olympics) (& the effect is more pronounced for high-end TV’s, = good for Sony because Sony’s market share is concentrated in the high-end range (they are market leader in the high-end range)
2022 FIFA world cup (exact same thing as for the olympics)
You could say it’s already priced in, but the stock is already ridiculously undervalued so idk…
You would think this company somehow has a bad outlook, but that could not be further from the true, let me explain and go over some of the different divisions and explain why they will moon: Sony Entertainment While Netflix, Disney, AT&T, Amazon, and Apple are waging the great streaming war, Sony has been quietly building its anime streaming empire over the past years.
Sony recently acquired Crunchyroll for $1.175B (it is a great deal for Sony imho and will immediately be more valuable under Sony. Considering the growing appetite for anime I honestly do not even understand why AT&T sold it, they could have integrated it with their other streaming service (HBO Max) but ok)
With Crunchyroll Sony now has the following anime empire:
Aniplex (anime production & distribution, subsidiary of Sony Music Entertainment Japan) F
Funimation
Manga Entertainment UK (production, licensing, and distribution, UK)
Wakanam (licensing and distribution in Europe)
AnimeLab (licensing and distribution in Australia & New Zealand)
Crunchyroll (3 million paying subcribers, 90 million registered users and 50 million social media followers)
* Why anime matters: Anime growth “The global size is expected to reach USD 36.26 billion by 2025, registering a CAGR of 8.8% over the forecast period, according to a study conducted by Grand View Research, Inc. Growing popularity and sales of Japanese anime content across the globe apart from Japan is driving the growth” (tl;dr anime 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀, Sony is all in on anime and they have pretty much no competition) Anime is the fastest growing subsegment of movies/video entertainment worldwide.
Sony also has a partnership with Bilibili for anime distribution in China:
Bilibili already partnered with Sony Music Entertainment Japan to bring Aniplex’s hugely successful Aniplex’s Fate/Grand Order mobile game in China.
Sony acquired a 5% stake in Bilibili for $400M in March 2020 (that 5% stake is now already worth $2.33B at Bilibili’s current share price ($BILI) and imho $BILI still has lots of upside potential considering it is the de facto video creation/sharing/viewing à la YouTube/Twitch for GenZ in China)
Sony Music (mobile games) generated $400M revenue from its mobile games in Q2 FY2020, published through Aniplex (Sony Music Entertainment Japan, “SMEJ”) subsidiary
They are the publisher of Fate/Grand Order, one of the most profitable mobile video games of the past 5 years (has generated $4B in revenue (!!) by the end of 2019 and is still as popular as ever). Fate/Grand order is the 7th most profitable mobile game in revenue worldwide as of 2020 (!)
Aniplex launched Disney: Twisted Wonderland in March this year. In Q3, it was the #10 most downloaded mobile game in Japan. (Aniplex now has two top ten games in Japan)
Fate/Grand Order was the #2 most tweeted game in 2020 and #3 was Disney: Twisted Wonderland. You can see that Aniplex has two hugely successful mobile games. (we are talking close to $1B of revenue a year here). It is the #2 game in Japan by total revenue from Q1 2016 to Q3 2020 and the #9 game in worldwide revenue from Q1 2020 to Q3 2020.
SMEJ earns about > $1B from mobile games in revenue from mobile games and there is still a lot of future growth potential here considering Japan’s mobile game market grew a whopping 32% yoy from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020.
Aniplex recently co-distrubuted the movie Demon Slayer: Mugen Train in Japan in October 2020. It became the highest grossing film of all time in Japan with a total gross box office revenue of $380M. In the middle of a pandemic. It still needs to release in South Korea, China and USA where it will most likely do great as well.
Sony Interactive Entertainment (SIE) (Game & Netwerk Services business unit):
We all know 2020 was a huge year for video games with the stay-at-home pandemic boost. The whole video game sector brought in $180B of revenue in 2020, a whopping 20% increase yoy.
But 2020 will not be just a one-off temporary exceptional year for video games. The video game market has a CAGR of 13% which means it will be worth $291B in 2027. Video games is by far the segment with the highest growth rate in the whole entertainment industry.
PlayStation obviously has a huge piece of this pie and over the past years has seen consistent yoy revenue and profit growth. Think about it, for every FIFA/Call of Duty/Assassin’s Creed sold on PS4/PS5, Sony gets a 30% cut. There have been sold a billion PS4 games so far.
5 years ago 20 to 30% of PS4 games were purchased digitally. Flashforward to 2020 and it’s 60-75% and the digital ratio looks set to still increase a bit. This means higher profit margin for game publishers and for Sony at the expense of retailers
SIE has seen huge success in its first-party games over the past 5 years. Spider-Man, God of War, Horizon: Zero Dawn, The Last of Us Part 2, Uncharted 4, Ghost of Tsushima, Days Gone, Ratchet & Clank have all been huge successes. This is really big and represents a big change compared to the previous generations where Sony never really hit it big as a games publisher even though most of their games were considered quality games.
SIE is now not only a powerful platform holdeprovider, but also a very successful games publisher with popular IP’s (Uncharted, God of War, The Last of Us, Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima, Ratchet & Clank). This is an enormous asset, because firstly it increases the chances of success for cross-media opportunities (Sony Pictures can make TV shows and movies out of it to expand the popularity of those IP’s even more). And secondly, it is an obvious selling point for PS5. The more popular and bigger their exclusive content, the more they can draw people to their platform/service. This should increases PS5 total marketshare over its competitor.
The hype for God of War: Ragnarok will be absolutely through the roof. Hype for Horizon: Forbidden West is also very good already (10 million yt views, 273K likes which is very good). Gran Turismo 7 and Ratchet & Clank will also do very well in 2021. (I suspect that GoW oand Horizon might be delayed to 2022)
PS5 reception has been extremely good. Demand is through the roof as well all know. The only problem is that they cannot quite capitalize on the demand due to lack of supply, but overall, it is a very good thing that demand is very high, and that reception has been very positive. The challenge will primarily supply and production-related for the following 6 months and to be able to maintain brand momentum. Hopefully, they won’t push disappointed/inpatient customers to competitors.
Considering there’s backwards compatibility from PS4 to PS5, users will want all their PSN content to transition with them as well, so I expect them to lose very little marketshare to Xbox. Also, I do not know if Americans realize it, but Xbox is not nearly as big as PlayStation in the rest of the world as it is in the USA. PlayStation just has global brand power that Xbox just doesn’t have, so Xbox isn’t much of threat at all I’d say. Where I live, in Belgium, In Europe everyone is talking about the PS5, nobody really seems to care about Xbox Series S/X that much. Comparing PlayStation to Xbox in terms of mindshare is like comparing Apple to Motorola (not meant to be a diss to Motorola, I have a Motorola phone myself, just saying that Xbox has significantly less mindshare / brand power in Europe).
SIE is likely working on PSVR 2, this could be big.
Sony has a small stake in Epic Games (1.4%) and they have a good business relationship with them, so this might also make them open to release first-party games on Epic Games Store after exclusivity period on PS5.
Remember the Travis Scott concert in Fortnite? I believe that was one of the reasons why Sony invested in Epic Games. It serves as an example how music can sometimes converge with video games, and this can play to Sony’s strengths.
PlayStation also has way superior presence in Asia compared to Xbox. Have been expanding into China as well. Another great opportunity for revenue growth.
PS+ subscribers grew from 5.7 million by the end of 2013 to 46 million by October 30th, 2020. This is an average growth rate of 28% over the past 5 years. Considering most of the growth was early on, it will slow down, but I predict that they will have about 70 million PS+ subscribers by the end of 2023. This is huge and represents a stable, recurring source of income. Investors who keep hyping Netflix/Disney+ will love this, but it seems they have yet to discover $SNE.
There is a reason why Amazon, Google, Nvidia have been aggressively investing in video games & games streaming. They know the business is huge and is about to get even bigger. But considering the established, loyal PlayStation userbase, the established global brand of PlayStation and the exclusive games, PlayStation should be able to easily standoff competition from Amazon, Google and Nvidia (GeForce Now) in the next few years. So far, Amazon’s venture into game development, publishing & streaming has completely failed. Stadia and GeForceNow seem to have a bit more success, but still relatively niche. Therefore, I think PlayStation is well-positioned to remain one of the leaders in the industry for the following decade.
I'll get to the other divisions later, I figured this is a good first step. But so far the tl;dr Image sensors: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 IoT/Industry 4.0 chipsets: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 PS5/PSN/PS+: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Online medical services (M3 inc.): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Anime: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Fate/Grand Order: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Demon Slayer: Mugen Train 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Sony Music / music streaming (the performance of Sony Music’s in Sony’s business is seriously understated. The numbers speak for themselves): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Sony Electronics 🚀 Sony Financial Holdings (very stable & profitable business, even managed to grow slightly during pandemic when most insurance companies performed more poorly): 🚀🚀🚀 Still have to cover Sony Pictures, but their upcoming movie slate looks pretty good honestly (Spider-Man sequel, Venom: Let There Be Darkness, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Uncharted, Morbius, Hotel Transylvania 4 so that's worth one rocket as well imho 🚀 tl;dr of tl;dr: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I am an idiot that's trying to understand why $SNE stock is so cheap. Positions: SNE 105C 21st January 22
Hello There! My name is u/houseofcards32 and welcome to airsoft! This thread was created to help beginners and newer players out there. I hope you will get something out of this post, as it contains almost every bit of information you need to get started. This thread gets updated every year with new information and sections, so assume the 2019/2020 guides are out of date. This thread will be automatically updated on January 1st, 2022. At the bottom of this thread will include all of the guides I have created so far, if you are looking for something that is not in here, I would look there first. This thread also has a video for each section created by me. Don't want to read the massive wall of text that follows? No worries! Sit back and watch the short 1-3 minute videos on the topic. Consider liking and subscribing to my youtube channel,cards32 , as I don't make money off of these, but I do make it for beginners/newcomers benefit. Under each section will be a video for that specific section. How to start airsoft in 2020 Battery Guide (LiPo vs nImh) Stick with an M4/AK if you are an airsoft beginner Lancer Tactical is bad 2021 Beginner Thread video playlist (in order) Are you looking to start airsoft? Do you need information about the basics? Well look no further! This guide will have 15 sections:
Basic Information
How much does airsoft cost?
The best beginner rifles (AK/M4 variants) for $100-250
Things to generally avoid when playing
What should you bring to your first airsoft game
What weight bb should I be using?
Can I start airsoft as a sniper?
What eyepro/lower face projection should I invest in?
What is a "MED"?
What is a GBBR?
The Search bar
Orange tips and their legality
Airsoft youtubers
MSW (MilSim West)
What are some cheap gear brands to get as a beginner?
Lancer Tactical
What airsoft shops should I buy from?
Don't go out and spend $1000 before playing
Comparing paintball and airsoft is like comparing apples to oranges
What are the most common gearboxes?
Other guides that may be useful
Section 1: Basic Information Video link Your first airsoft guns is one of the most important purchases you will make while playing airsoft. As your first gun, it should be reliable, affordable, versatile, easy to work on (V2/V3), high performance, and compatible with as many upgrades and accessories as possible. This means buying and AEG, or Automatic electric gun or Sub-Machine gun (also known as an SMG). Forget about buying sniper rifles, pistols, gas guns, and other exotic airsoft guns until you have more experience, money, and at least one backup weapon. To play airsoft it is HIGHLY recommended that you have the following items:
An AEG (NOT A LPAEG)
Magazines (high capacity magazines are recommended, which holds around 300+ bb's)
Some batteries
A charger
All airsoft AEG's come with a magazine out of the box (sometimes a mid cap), but is highly recommended that you have 2-3 of these while you are playing. Eye protection is the most important thing in airsoft. All airsoft fields/sites require you to wear goggles/masks while playing. For more information check section 8. Section 2: How much does airsoft cost? Video link Although airsoft is markedly cheaper than other shooting sports, it's still an expensive hobby. Site fees vary greatly but will typically exceed $25 for a day's play. It is reasonably common to spend in excess of $400 buying, upgrading and accessorizing a single airsoft gun. Gear and clothing can be similarly expensive. It is possible to play airsoft very successfully with just basic equipment, but even the cheapest possible equipment required to play airsoft safely will still cost you a minimum of $100. If you want a competitive advantage, or to play more advanced simulation games, you should expect significant additional expenditure. It is common for users to approach airsoft with unrealistically low budgets. If you have less than $100-150 to spend, you are not realistically in a position to play airsoft. We will not compromise your safety by recommending you skimp on personal protective equipment. We refuse to recommend Low Power Electric Guns ('LPAEGs'), spring pistols and other ultra-low-budget airsoft guns because their performance is so poor, and their life expectancy so short, that they represent a false economy. You may still be able to afford to rent gear at an organized airsoft site, but not for more than a handful of games at most. FAQs: 1. I think I can afford to play. What's the next step? If you haven't already,read the rest of this guide. 2. Why are you lying to me? I can easily find airsoft guns that cost less than $100. In airsoft, as in most aspects of life, there is a minimum price below which a product cannot be made fit for purpose. It is possible to buy something approximately gun-shaped for less than $100. Do not confuse this with the ability to buy a gun that will be sufficiently powerful, reliable and long-lived enough to play airsoft with. LPEGs, spring pistols and ultra-low-budget airsoft guns are utterly inadequate for airsoft play and will break rapidly, at which point you will be back to having no gun and will also have lost whatever you spent. In addition, you still need to buy suitable Personal Protective Equipment ('PPE'), which is an absolute prerequisite of play and not free. THE ONLY EXCEPTION to this rule is spring shotguns. The tri-Shot ones. They shoot anywhere from 3-6 bb’s at a time and most shells hold about 30 rounds. These shotguns are only optimal for CQB arenas and highly urban fields. They have extremely limited range so keep that in mind. 3. The best beginner rifles (AK/M4 variants) for $100-250 Video link To get into the hobby of airsoft, you will need to have a decent budget. Most beginneintermediate guns cost anywhere from $100-250, but that cost does not include bb's, magazines, batteries, and a charger. Some guns come with a wall charger and a battery, but most users (including myself) recommend throwing the wall chargers away. This is simply because the wall chargers are normally very low quality. Most players recommend starting airsoft with an M4 or AK style variant AEG. Please note that Lancer Tactical rifles are NOT included in this guide, please check section 16 for more information on this topic. Note that the current Covid-19 pandemic is still ongoing, so things might read out of stock on the websites listed. I would check other websites if the items listed are not shown. Commonly recommended choices are:
CYMA AK Series -$130 - CM028, CMO40, CM045, CM048, and CMO28S) are clones of the original TM AK-47’s and AKS-47’s , and they include a high cap magazine (500-600 rounds). These are the cheapest AEG we recommend, and are generally considered reliable, upgradeable, and reasonably versatile. However, their all-Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene ('ABS') plastic construction makes them relatively fragile. For improved robustness we strongly recommend spending slightly more to purchase a Glass-Filled Nylon Polymer ('GFP') AR-15 or a steel AK.
CYMA Platinum M4 Series -$250 - CYMA's newest addition to the intermediate M4 world, with these being one of the most recommended beginner guns of 2020. With updated internals, great trigger response, and a strong gearbox shell being the highlights of this rifle. Note that these go on sale quite often and the price drops around $240-250.
CYMA Sport M4 Series -$185 - CYMA's solution to "budget" airsoft guns that have good internals and can be had for a decent price. Not as many features as the plat's, but have completely over hauled internals, as shown in Negative Airsoft's video.
ICS Sportline -$180-200 - ICS' Sportline AR-15s are effectively a re-shell of their excellent regular guns in a GFP receiver. They retain the convenient split gearbox system of the regular guns. Note that most of ICS's rifles are slightly proprietary in their gearboxes, so keep this in mind.
Maple Armories Marauder -$180 - Made from high density polymer but has an excellent set of internals which has been proven to be better than the Guay Guay lineup. This weapon series is on the more expensive side but has comparible internals to the VFC Avalon series.
E and C MK18 Series -$162 - These are not really common in the US, but are popular in places like Canada and the EU. The internals on these have been quite good and QC has been almost top notch for something that is under 200. There are other models available in the US, but are way more expensive.
Arcturus M4 Series -$161 -Arcturus is a relatively new brand in the airsoft market, but has come out the gate strong with their M4 series. This series has a microswtich installed, which is uncommon for other models in this price range excluding Classic Army. It also comes with 2 magazines which is great for beginners.
APEX Skirmish Series -$95-100 - OEM'd by Classic Army, Apex's Fast Attack AR-15s are a relatively new entry to the market, and are equivalent to Guay Guay's CM16s. Versions with GFP and metal receivers are available. An intermediate equivalent of these would be a GP or ICS AR-15.
Guay Guay G2 Combat Machines -$207 - Guay Guay has recently come out with a more updated version of their "Golden standard" AEGS. These are still relatively new and have had reports of poor quality mosfets. But other than that, the Gen2's are a superior upgrade to their Gen1 counterparts. Gen1's have been removed from this guide simply due to more updated rifles being out. Upgraded internals, and a better exterior allow for a better quality AEG. An intermediate/high end equivalent of these would be a VFC or a Krytac. These are not as outdated as the gen 1’s, but they still are classified as outdated when it comes to performance.
Classic Army Skirmish Series -$180-200 - Classic Army's AR-15s are a relatively new entry to the market, and are equivalent to a slightly upmarket version of Guay Guay's CM16s. An intermediate equivalent of these would be a G P or ICS AR-15. These feature a mosfet that allows you to switch to 3 round burst or 5 rebound burst.
Specna Arms Core Series -$120 -Specna Arms's CORE series of AEG's were removed from last year's guide due to QC issues, but with the issues mostly being fixed in the later end of 2020, they are being readded for their great price, and overall decent internals. Note that all the CORE series of AEG's have the same internals, just different externals, which are polymer to keep cost down.
Specna Arms EDGE Series -$220 -Another Specna model, with this being similar to the CORE series, but having a GATE X-ASR mosfet, the newer orion gearbox, and an aluminum receiver instead of polymer. Also features a quick change spring system for easier fps changes.
EMG Helios CORE/EDGE Series -$220-280 -Features the same specna internals, with the EDGE having the mosfet, and an aluminum body, whilst the core has a polymer.
4. Things to generally avoid when playing Video link Airsoft is an honor sport, when you get hit, raise your hand high and display your dead rag. Also yell “HIT” as loud as you can so the other player who is shooting you knows that you are dead. Not displaying your dead rag can lead to being shot more than you want to. Calling someone else’s hits are normally frowned upon as you’re going to cause problems on the field and airsoft drama is not worth it. If someone is suspected of cheating, call a ref/marshal over to observe the player. When you are in the field/game area, DO NOT TAKE OFF YOUR EYEPRO!! EYEPRO is the #1 important thing in airsoft. If a bb hits your eye, you more than likely will be blind. Keep your EYEPRO on at all times while in the field. If you are fogging up, walk off the field. Avoid overshooting other players, once you see a dead rag or a red rag come up, or hear “HIT” stop shooting them. Dead men tell no tales! If you are dead, and a teammate asks where you got shot from, simply say: “dead men don’t talk” and walk back to your respawn. 5. What should you bring to your first airsoft game Video link So you’ve finally bought your gun and gear and you’re heading out to your first game. As mentioned previously, you want to make sure you come prepared. As well as your AEG, you want to make sure your batteries are charged and you brought an extra magazine or two. You also want to bring WATER! Staying hydrated is one of the most important things you need to do in airsoft. Being dehydrated will ruin your day and cause problems for you. Also make sure to have a good amount of bb’s for the day. it is highly advised that you wear boots while playing, running shoes can get dirty easily and there will be mud somewhere on the field that you will end up stepping on and getting wet. An extra pair of socks is also a good idea!
What weight bb should I be using?
Video link This question is very common with a lot of newer players. LPAEG’s (Löw powered Airsoft guns) and Walmart airsoft guns use .12 gram bb’s. DO NOT RUN THESE IN AN AEG! This bb’s are cheap and will break the internals of your rifle. You don’t want to throw your money away do you? I didn’t think so. The lowest weight you can use in your replica is .20 gram bb’s. There are a lot of brands out there for bb’s: Elite Force, BLS,, HPA, KWA and so on. All of them are good brands to buy from. If you are planning on playing indoor, most users will recommend .2-.28 bb’s for the best range and efficiency. If you are planning on playing outdoor, using .28’s and higher is optimal for the best range. Just keep this in mind: the heavier weight, the slower the bb travels.
Can I start airsoft as a sniper?
Video link It's not recommended no. You can do whatever you want, but sniping is not beginner friendly. Sniping is an expensive virtue and will take a lot of money and time for you to get a rifle that shoots far. Buying a stock sniper will mean you have to put money and parts into it, as the only “good” stock sniper rifle is the SSG24, and the Silverback SRS. The popular airsoft youtuber, Novritsch, has made sniping extremely popular with noobs as he shows a lot of action and gameplay with his guns. Keep in mind that being a sniper is not all action and takes patience and time. His videos are short for a reason. You do the math.
What eyepro/lower face projection should I invest in?
Video link Eyepro is the most important thing in airsoft. Airsoft is a sport that requires you to have eye protection on at all times while on the field. Lower face protection is required for most players under the age of 18 in most American fields. Anyone over the age of 18 can normally just get away with goggles, but you don't want to have to go to the dentist do you? Didn't think so. There are different types of eye protection for airsoft, ranging from basic shooting goggles, to face masks that protect your face. There are a lot of different goggles and masks out there, but here are some of the most populamost recommended items. Any eye protection you use MUST BE ANSI 787.1+, otherwise you cannot use them! DO NOT USE MESK EYE PROTECTION UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES! They are not anzi rated, and their have been hundreds of cases where someone will shoot someone with mesk eye pro, and the bb will explore on the outside of the google, allowing the bb fragments to get inside an eye.
Pyramex I-Forces (Slim) -20$ - These goggles are one of the most common eye protection recommended because they are really hard to fog. They are also the cheapest eye protection that this list will have, but these are really amazing goggles. These are full seal but these are not as big and bulky as some others.
Revison Desert Locusts -$30 - These are another amazing choice when it comes to eye protection. A little more pricer than the I Forces, but provides more protection around the face. Has fine lens curvature and the lenses adjust automatically to shifting or variable light conditions. Please note you can buy these new on their website/evike, but they cost 50-60$ new.
ESS Land Ops -$85 - Issued by the U.S Army, these goggles are another excellent choice. Features exceptional fog resistance, particle filtration, and comfort. These can also be found on eBay and military surplus stores for cheaper, but keep in mind of scratching.
Smith Optics OTW -$180 -These no doubt are the most expensive goggle on this list, but these goggles feature a fan inside of the goggle, which allows for no fog at all. The low profile housing of the fan does not interfere with the brim of a helmet. If you want something really good, \*buy once, cry once.\*
Dye i4/i5 -$100-250 - These are the best option when it comes to full face protection. This was originally designed for paintball, but has been adopted by airsofters as well. The special venting and google coating allows for zero fog. I have had one for 8 months and I have yet to deal with any problems. The prices vary depending on color, but you can find one used for roughly 60-70$. There is an updated mask, the Dye i5, which has an updated back strap and different colors.
Oakley M-Frames -$120-130 - These are often used by milsimmers as these offer great eye protection in a minimalist setup. Often used by the US military, these offer great non-fogging and are super lightweight.
ESS Crossbows -$40-80 - The ESS Crossbow Suppressor is the first spectacle frame designed for use with ear cup hearing protection and communications devices. Featuring Z-Bend Geometry, the frame's ultra-thin temple arms help keep noise out by minimizing the effect on the padded seal of ear cups. The slim temples eliminate the hot spots and pressure points that commonly occur when normal eyewear is worn under ear cups.
OneTigris Mesh Mask -$15-20 - The most common mesh mask in the market, and the most affordable one also. Made out of steel and nylon, this mask allows for maximum comfort as it is has nylon fabric cheek sides.
9. What is a "MED"? Video link If you’ve played airsoft before or are just hearing about this for the first time, a “MED” or minimum engagement distance is utilized in airsoft. Most airsoft guns have semi, and fully automatic. Most fields in the US, do NOT allow full auto within 40-50 feet. Imagine coming around a corner and getting shot with 10 bb’s because the person around the corner didn’t switch to semi. This isn’t Call of Duty, spraying your bb’s all over the place will achieve very little, if not anything. When you get closer than 40-50 feet, switch your AEG to semi. Airsoft, for the most part doesn’t hurt, but getting shot 10-20 times in a row certainly will. Don’t be that guy who full autos people from 10 feet away! It’s being an asshat, and will probably get you kicked out!
What is a GBBR?
Video link GBBR(Gas Blow-Back Rifles) are the hyper-realistic guns. If you have a larger budget and would like a more realistic experience these are the guns for you. Not usually recommended as starter guns because of the cost of gas and accessories, but not to be entirely ruled out for a select group of people. These guns require maintenance, but most would consider the work to be put to the background in the face of the utter satisfaction of using one of these guns. Check out GasBlowBack for more information on this topic. 11. The Search Bar Video link The search bar is a tool that is at the top of this sub that is used to search for a post or topic. This feature is not used by any beginners as they will probably ignore this guide and ask the question anyways. Most questions have been asked before and you will find your answer. To use the search bar: A. Open reddit B. Click on airsoft C. Using your eyeballs, look at the top of your screen D. Using your fingers, type in whatever you are looking for (I.E BEST BEGINNER SETUP) E. Using your eyeballs, look at the results F. Realize that most people will just ignore this guide and continue asking the same questions every single day. G. Profit!
Orange tips and their legality
Video link Orange tips are required for retailers, but you are more than welcome to take them off after you receive your airsoft gun. Just note by doing so you will void your warranty. Also please do not take your airsoft gun out in public and follow basic gun safety. Please check your local state/county rules before doing this though. Note that random strangers on the internet will NOT know your local rules, so I cannot empathize this enough.
Airsoft youtubers
Video link A lot of users will watch certain youtubers and get a impression of the hobby that does not exist. Remember: Their job is to get views and entertain you, they cut out the parts that are boring. Clickbait content is what most beginners watch and please note that cheaters in airsoft are not as common at they make them to be. If you are interesting in learning more about clickbait, I made a video breaking down airsoft clickbait on youtube. There is of course great content creators out there that don't just make clickbait and I implore you to go look for them. 14.MSW (MilSim West) Video link MSW is considered the only "true" Milsim in the US. Interesting in going? Read the Tacsop.
What are some cheap gear brands to get as a beginner?
Video link It is also pretty common for airsofters to think they need to spend a bunch of money on super expensive gear to get started. This couldn't be farther from the truth. Good gear does not equal skill (BY ITSELF), and while having good gear CAN help you play, it won't make you a special operator by itself. Most users are on a budget anyways, and investing in cheap chest rigs is a great option to stay within your budget. Note that most of these recommendations will be chest rigs, simply because of the price and functionally of them. Condor is one of the most budget friendly airsoft gear brands out there, as they will be on this list a bunch. NOTE: THE CHEAP CROSS DRAW VESTS ARE NOT INCLUDED ON THIS LIST SIMPLY BECAUSE FOR THE MOST PART, THEY SUCK. Some good budget options ($0-100) would be:
Video link It is also very common for users to approach airsoft with spending a bunch of money. Please don't do this. It is always recommended to rent before playing. After renting, don't go out and buy a shit ton of geaguns. Stay cheap, and don't go all out. Regardless of what you have seen on youtube, having the best gear does not make you the best player. How stupid would you look if you went out and bought a brand new Umbrella Armory and full Crye's if you don't like the hobby? Simply put, don't go out and buy expensive gear, like said above, stay cheap and go out to have fun.
Comparing paintball and airsoft is like comparing apples to oranges
Video link Comparing paintball to airsoft would be like comparing apples to oranges. They are two completely different hobbies that are very different. Paintball uses balls of paint that cannot go farther than normally 50-60 feet, whilst airsoft uses more realistic looking markers that can go much farther. If you are a paintballer, no problem, just don't come in here and try to compare the two :)
Changelog: 5/30/19-Fixed Formatting and added suggested eyepro section 6/1/19-small typos fixed and section about MED’s added 12/7/19- reposted for Christmas influx of new gun posts 12/7/19- added section on GBBGBB’s. 12/9/19- added section on searchbar and typos 12/27/19- added how the older guay guay are outdated 1/1/2020- post was unpinned so new thread is made. 1/1/2020- updated part about specna 1/19/2020 - orange tip section added 5/16/2020- removed specna cores from the Recommended list of guns due to bad QC 7/22/2020- reposting thread with more updated links as well as adding E and C to the recommended section 7/22/2020- added sections 13 and 14 7/22/2020- Videos added for each section 7/22/2020 - Added more options for eyepro 7/22/2020 -Fixed AMP AMP AMP issue 12/25/2020 - Added 5 new sections 12/28/2020 - Removed G1 CM"s from the recommended M4's. 12/29/2020 - Added new beginner guns to recommended section 12/30/2020 -Fixed spelling errors and guide overhaul 1/1/2020 - Guide re-published
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