@AP: RT @AP_NFL: AP Pro Football Writer Barry Wilner picks Thursday’s matchup in Vegas between the slumping Raiders and the who-knows-what-they-are Chargers, plus a number of other games with playoff implications. The picks >> https://t.co/Ftz0mvcXpD https://t.co/biW6dgwWG3
I added in projected compensatory picks from OTC and the compensatory picks from the new minority candidate development rule. Not sure how those are supposed to be structured in, so I simply used the OTC ones first in the order, but took off the last 3 estimated compensatory picks to ensure it remained at a simple 32 compensatory picks added. So apologies to the Cowboys, Bears, and Steelers. You might have been robbed of a pick but I don't know the specifics of how all those will be factored in. If someone knows the actual way those will set-up, that'd be useful information. Going to provide commentary on rounds 1-3 then maybe the occasional commentary after that if I really like a fit. Also, there's a chance that I missed someone announcing they were returning to school or not. Just let me know if so.
Pre-Draft Trades
Using the terms suggested from a SB Nation article, so yell at them if you hate it: CAR sends: QB Teddy Bridgewater, 2021, 2022, 2023 first-round picks, 2021, 2022 second-round picks HOU sends: QB Deshaun Watson The Panthers have drafted relatively well the last 2-3 years, as they have several younger pieces they can continue building around. Thus, a major package to land QB Deshaun Watson should be something they explore. For Houston, a king's ransom for a disgruntled star who really wants out. An NFC championship contender adds a big piece to their offense: GB sends: 2021 second-round pick, 2022 fifth-round pick DAL sends: WR Michael Gallup, 2021 seventh-round pick The Packers add some extra firepower on offense by adding Gallup. With Rodgers window coming to a close, the Packers take a chance that an established veteran like Gallup will do more for them than a very late second-round pick. Dallas has Amari Cooper and now CeeDee Lamb at WR, making Gallup expendable if they get a good offer for him. An NFC playoff team makes a splash at the quarterback position: WAS sends: 2021 fourth-round pick, 2022 seventh-round pick JAC sends: QB Gardner Minshew While the Redskins did not land Stafford, they could still find a solid upgrade at the QB position by bringing in Gardner Minshew. I love how he fits in Scott Turner's offense, and think this would be a decent enough price to pay to give them some stability at the position.
First Round
(1) Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson - I'd imagine even though it's the only pick that never changes, Jaguars fans aren't bored of seeing this. Lawrence is a special player and their best bet at turning things around in a hurry. (2) New York Jets - QB Zach Wilson, BYU - There still could be a small chance that the Jets stick with Sam Darnold, but we're going to go ahead and give Darnold a fresh-start somewhere else (trade to be revealed later). I have Fields a smidge higher than Zach Wilson, but could easily see him being the selection here. I think Wilson's a better fit, however, for LaFleur's Shanahan style offense. Either way, a talented QB for the Jets and head coach Robert Saleh (great f***ing hire btw Jets fans). (3) Miami Dolphins (via HOU) - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - With the Panthers giving up a haul for Deshaun Watson, the Dolphins may not have a lot of options to trade out of this spot. Thus, they stick tight and land an elite pass protector for QB Tua Tagovailoa. (4) Atlanta Falcons - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - Personally, I love the idea of Fields coming back home to Georgia to sit behind Matt Ryan for a season. The Falcons, and new head coach Arthur Smith, would be wise to take a QB while they're in a natural position to snag one. Ryan will start 2021 for sure due to his contract, but if things go well, they could make a Mahomes like transition to Fields into 2022. (5) Cincinnati Bengals - OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern - There a lot of buzz that Slater could be above Sewell in the mind of many NFL executives. Either way, it's a strong pick for the Bengals and Joe Burrow to land a top offensive tackle. TRADE! The Patriots send their 2021 1st (1.15) along with a 2021 3rd (3.98) and a 2022 1st to the Eagles to move up to their selection at 6. (6) New England Patriots (via PHI) - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Patriots need to make a significant investment in the QB position, as neither Cam Newton nor Jarrett Sitdham looked like the answer for them in 2020. Here they make a splash trade to move up and grab Lance, a player with immense physical talent. Ideally they'd land a veteran QB like Ryan Fitzpatrick to start in 2021 while they let Lance develop. (7) Detroit Lions - WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - One thing lost in the Stafford-Goff trade is Detroit essentially nuking its cap space by bringing in Goff's $28 million deal. Now $11 million over the estimated cap, the Lions do not seem likely to retain WR Kenny Golladay at this point. They need a replacement for Goff to throw to while they determine if he'll be around longer than 2021. (8) Houston Texans (via CAR) - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - Without a QB available here, the Texans play it patient, letting newly acquired Teddy Bridgewater run the show in 2021. They instead my personal top choice at corner this year, Virginia Tech's Caleb Farley. For a defense that needs to get turned around, he represents an excellent building block for them. TRADE! The Miami Dolphins get aggressive here, sending their second first-round pick (1.18), a 2021 3rd (3.82) and a 2022 2nd round pick, and swap 2nds with Denver to move up here. (9) Miami Dolphins (via DEN) - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Dolphins go land a premier wide receiver target for QB Tua Tagovailoa to throw to. Chase and Smith will be widely debated for the top wide receiver honors in this draft class. Miami would likely be elated to add either one of them. (10) Dallas Cowboys - CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - Surtain may not be my top cornerback, but the Cowboys should have no hesitation adding him here at tenth overall, especially considering the dire state of their defense. (11) New York Giants - EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan - Paye is an exceptional athletic talent. Much like fellow Wolverine Rashan Gary coming out of Ann Arbor, he's still got plenty of room to grow into an elite rusher. He was dominant in the first few games for the Wolverines in an otherwise rough 2020 season for Harbaugh and co. (12) San Francisco 49ers - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina - I have top-15 grades on all three of the corners listed so far, so this remains excellent value in my opinion for the 49ers. They're likely going to lose a handful of cornerbacks to free agency this year, so landing a premier rookie to develop into a stud for DeMeco Ryans defense is a priority. (13) Los Angeles Chargers - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - An excellent group of tackles in this year's draft class is a big benefit for the Chargers, as they're able to land a premier prospect like Darrisaw. He'll fit well in new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's offense in his second-go as a play-caller. (14) Minnesota Vikings - T/G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker has the flexibility to play tackle or move inside to guard. The Vikings have a similar player in Ezra Cleveland, which should give them the ability to move some guys around and find the ideal pairing here. (15) Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - The Eagles probably have some positional needs above this, but it'd be a mistake to go for a worse player at a lesser player, thus the selection of Rousseau. He's an elite athlete and was incredibly disruptive for the Hurricanes in 2019. With Brandon Graham getting up there in age, and Vinny Curry set to hit free agency, this selection goes best player available with the near future in mind. (16) Arizona Cardinals - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida - The Cardinals could use a monsterous pass catcher like Pitts to pair with DeAndre Hopkins. With some strong flashes from QB Kyler Murray in 2020, adding one more weapon could provide the breakthrough the Cardinals need to make it into the playoffs. TRADE! The Steelers make a move up, sending a 1st (1.24), their third (3.88) and a 2022 fifth to move up and make the selection here instead of the Raiders. (17) Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas - Jumping ahead of a couple of OT-needy teams in the WFT and the Bears, Pittsburgh gets its future franchise pass protector. Cosmi's film shows a highly athletic tackle who has gotten better each season in Austin. Put in a strong program under Mike Tomlin, I think Cosmi can thrive as a future All-Pro. (18) Denver Broncos (via MIA) - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - The Broncos land an absolute steal here with Parsons, an elite blend of size and speed at the LB position. Additionally, his versatility should be a weapon for Vic Fangio to deploy, as he's capable of filling multiple roles on any defense. (19) Washington Football Team - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - I think a bigger wide receiver would work a bit better, but Scott Turner's creativity in building an offense around mostly role/gadget players like Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic gives me confidence he can make it work with an elite talent like Waddle. (20) Chicago Bears - G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - The Bears could probably go for a tackle a little bit more than a guard, but beggars cannot be choosers this late into the first-round. They land an elite interior lineman to immediately give a boost to their offensive line. (21) Indianapolis Colts - QB Mac Jones, Alabama - Philip Rivers retired, Jacoby Brissett is a free agent, and Jacob Eason wasn't active for a single game. Add it all together and it looks like the Colts are in need of a QB like Jones. A decisive passer with a good deep ball, he'll be a nice addition for Frank Reich to mentor. (22) Tennessee Titans - EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami - The Titans pass rusher was miserable this past season. Injecting some youth and athleticism into the equation could help Mike Vrabel get his defense back on track. Phillips was excellent for the Hurricanes in 2020. (23) New York Jets (via SEA) - OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama - The Jets add another big body here to pair on the other side of LT Mekhi Becton. With those two in town, new QB Zach Wilson should feel quite comfortable in the pocket. (24) Las Vegas Raiders (via PIT) - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama - The sixth Crimson Tide player selected, Barmore was dominant the second half of the season in Tuscaloosa. He'd fill a big need on Ken Whisenhu...I mean, Gus Bradley's defense here in Vegas. (25) Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - The Jaguars give Trevor Lawrence an explosive weapon to throw to. Toney lit up the SEC this season and was very impressive at the Senior Bowl. He'd join former Florida head coach Urban Meyer a short drive away. (26) Cleveland Browns - DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns drafting this late with their own selection is a sign of how far they've come in recent years. They now have the ability to sit back and take the best player on the board in Nixon, a dominant pass rusher who came on strong in Big Ten play this year. (27) Baltimore Ravens - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - I believe I've had this pick in the last mock I did as well, but it makes way too much sense. The Ravens need a top option at wide receiver and Bateman's a crafty player who fits their offense well. (28) New Orleans Saints - CB Aaron Robinson, UCF - Robinson is a very underrated corner in this draft, and I really think he'll have a shot to land in the first-round. A quick player who always ends up in the right position, he'd be an excellent addition to the Saints defense. (29) Green Bay Packers - LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - The Packers need some fresh blood at the second level, and Bolton's an absolute missile who flies all over the field. Bolton would fit really well in the middle of their defense, especially if the Packers hire a 3-4 zone blitz genius like Jim Leonhard as their new coordinator. (30) Buffalo Bills - EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - A debate here between Ojulari and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, but ultimately think the depth at LB is a bit better in this class then pass rusher. So, Ojulari joins Sean McDermott's defense in Buffalo. (31) Kansas City Chiefs - iOL Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - The Chiefs need to add a starting caliber player to the interior of their offense line, and if Humphrey slides to them in the first-round, that'd be excellent value for them. (32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Congratulations Bucs fans and the Brady bandwagon! Now, don't get too caught up on the position, the best way to maintain your dominance is to continue adding elite pieces, and Harris is a potential star at the RB position. Excellent in-between the tackles as well as in the passing game.
Second Round
(33) Jacksonville Jaguars - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU - I almost thought about Moehrig with their second first-round pick, but ultimately he still lands in Jacksonville. (34) New York Jets - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - The Jets have the cap space to add a veteran WR like Allen Robinson or Kenny Golladay, so use the draft to add a stellar running back. (35) Atlanta Falcons - CB Erik Stokes, Georgia - Another Georgia player sticking around, as Stokes gives them an excellent option to develop alongside Terrell. (36) Denver Broncos (via MIA) - CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A rising star at the cornerback position, Newsome fits well into Fangio's defense. (37) Philadelphia Eagles - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - After adding an edge rusher earlier, the Eagles add a top wideout in the Trojan's star. (38) Cincinnati Bengals - G Deonte Brown, Alabama - The Bengals, after trading for another starting guard earlier, continue to overhaul their line. (39) Houston Texans (via CAR) - EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas - The Texans add some pass rushing help on the edge of their front seven with Ossai. (40) Miami Dolphins (via DEN) - OLB Zaven Collins, Tulsa - Collins is an ideal fit for Brian Flores, as he can lineup in a handful of different spots, similar to some of the linebackers he's worked with in Miami and New England. (41) Detroit Lions - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame - The Lions add a rangy linebacker who can give them some much needed at the position. (42) New York Giants - G Trey Smith, Tennessee - The Giants get an upgrade along the offensive with a powerful guard like Smith. (43) San Francisco 49ers - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington - The 49ers add an elite defensive tackle to pair with Javon Kinlaw on the inside. (44) Dallas Cowboys - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - The Cowboys went defense earlier, but add a talented offensive lineman to restock the trenches here. (45) Jacksonville Jaguars - TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State - If Freiermuth falls to the Jags here that'd be an absolute steal. A high-caliber tight end who can do everything needed at the position. (46) New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU - The Patriots, even if they add a QB, still need more weapons at WR. Marshall is an excellent one. (47) Los Angeles Chargers - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse - The Chargers give new head coach Brandon Staley an elite athlete to mold into a dominant cornerback for them. (48) Las Vegas Raiders - EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - The Raiders bring in another talent piece of Washington 2019 defensive line. He's got a high motor along with immense upside. TRADE! The Colts hop in front of the Dolphins to land their guy. They send a 2022 3rd round pick along with their second (2.54) here to the Cardinals in exchange for this selection and a 2022 7th round pick. (49) Indianapolis Colts (via ARI) - EDGE Carlos Basham, Wake Forest - I think Basham could definitely go higher than this, but if he's available in the second, the Colts should jump up to land him. (50) Miami Dolphins - S Jevon Holland, Oregon - The Dolphins add a playmaking safety to join their defense. Holland was an excellent leader on defense for the Ducks. (51) Washington Football Team - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - Washington has gotten serviceable production from a pair of aging OT's in Moses and Lucas. They add a developmental tackle to replace them soon enough. (52) Chicago Bears - WR Nico Collins, Michigan - The Bears could see star WR Allen Robinson walk in free agency. Adding a deep threat like Collins to pair with Mooney would be fun. (53) Tennessee Titans - OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan - Another Wolverine in the second round here, Mayfield would give the Titans a strong Michigan-based tackle duo with Taylor Lewan's return. (54) Arizona Cardinals (via IND) - iOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama - A tough, hard-nosed player on the interior, Dickerson can play a handful of spots, making him a versatile addition to the Cardinals line. (55) Pittsburgh Steelers - RB Javonte Williams, North Carolina - The Steelers add a stud running back to help revive their run game. (56) Seattle Seahawks - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State - The Seahawks could use some pass rush. Oweh's a bit raw, but can develop into a useful piece for Pete Carroll. (57) Los Angeles Rams - LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - The Rams add an athletic player at the second-level to keep their defense playing elite football. With the addition of QB Matthew Stafford, the Rams could be serious contenders for the NFC title in 2021. (58) Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Adding Roche as a rush end in Martindale's 3-4 defense would be an excellent move as Baltimore seems unlikely to retain both Yannick Ngakoue and Matt Judon. (59) Cleveland Browns - S Richie Grant, UCF - For a school most associate with high-powered offense, the UCF secondary is loaded, and Grant would make a fine addition for the Browns. TRADE! The Saints send 2.60 and a 2022 third to the Jets in exchange for QB Sam Darnold. (60) New York Jets (via NO) - WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss - He seems to be trending higher than this, but either way, the Jets substitute a backup QB for an explosive wide receiver for Zach Wilson. (61) Buffalo Bills - OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa - The Bills run game needs a boost on the offensive line, and Brown's monstrous frame gives a lot of weight to that. (62) Dallas Cowboys (via GB) - DT Jay Tufele, USC - After adding offensive line earlier in the second, the Cowboys go back to restocking their defense with talent. (63) Kansas City Chiefs - WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan - The Chiefs likely lose WR Sammy Watkins, but find an explosive piece here to replace him. (64) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Oregon State - Rashed has a lot of physical traits that bolster his potential. Letting Todd Bowles develop him would be ideal.
Third Round
(65) Jacksonville Jaguars - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Urban Meyer and Jags add a defensive end with a high motor to develop along with Josh Allen and K'Lavon Chaisson. (66) New York Jets - CB Keith Taylor Jr., Washington - A long, versatile defensive back, Taylor reminds me a good deal of 49ers CB Richard Sherman in his playstyle. (67) Houston Texans - S Talanoa Hufanga, USC - The Texans continue to overhaul their defense here, bringing in Hufanga to play a handful of roles in their backfield. (68) Atlanta Falcons - RB Michael Carter, North Carolina - Excellent value for the Falcons here, whether or not they bring back RB Todd Gurley who played on a 1-year deal in 2020. (69) Cincinnati Bengals - CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford - The Bengals give their defense some reinforcements with the selection of an experienced corner like Adebo. (70) Philadelphia Eagles - LB Jabrill Cox, LSU - The Eagles add a great athlete to the second-level of their defense. Cox has shown a lot of potential as a modern backer. (71) Denver Broncos - EDGE Janarius Robinson, Florida State - With Von Miller in a bit of hot water at the moment, Denver make want to add a pass rusher to develop just in case. (72) Detroit Lions - S Andre Cisco, Syracuse - Detroit's safety play was poor last year. Adding a high potential player like Cisco could be a good move for the rebuilding Lions. (73) Carolina Panthers - TE Hunter Long, Boston College - Welcome to the board, Carolina! After making a splash trade for QB Deshaun Watson, the Panthers give him another weapon at tight end. Long impressed during the Senior Bowl. (74) Washington Football Team - LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan - McGrone has some inconsistency to his play, but offers a lot of upside for someone who can straighten him out. (75) Dallas Cowboys - EDGE Victor Dimukeje, Duke - The Cowboys take a chance on Dimukeje here to help get after opposing QB's more frequently. (76) New York Giants - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue - I'd anticipate Golden Tate being a cap cut, and if so, Moore would be an explosive slot weapon to replace him. (77) New England Patriots - PICK FORFEITED (78) Los Angeles Chargers - EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt - A craft, versatile edge rusher, he'd project as an OLB in Staley defense with the Chargers. (79) Minnesota Vikings - DT Alim McNeill, North Carolina State - The Vikings add an explosive 3-technique to help get their defense turned around in a hurry. (80) Arizona Cardinals - CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State - Wade was overhyped early on, but would fit well in the Cardinals defense, developing as a future replacement for Patrick Peterson. (81) Las Vegas Raiders - S Richard Lecounte, Georgia - The Raiders add an experienced safety on the back end who can help them slow down divisional offenses led by Mahomes and Herbert. (82) Denver Broncos - OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame - The Broncos stop a bit of a slide here for Eichenberg. He has the ability to play RT or on the inside for Denver. (83) Washington Football Team - S Joshuah Bledsoe, Missouri - An underrated player at the position, Bledsoe has a ton of versatility and would fit very well reinforcing Washington's already stellar defense. (84) Chicago Bears - QB Kyle Trask, Florida - The Bears don't ignore the QB position entirely, as they take a later-than-expected flier on Trask. He was very good for Florida. (85) Indianapolis Colts - CB Elijah Molden, Washington - Not the biggest need on the Colts roster, but they should have the cap to plug holes in free agency and pick better players, like Molden, here. (86) Tennessee Titans - WR Dyami Brown, North Carolina - The Titans do have a stud WR in A.J. Brown, but with Corey Davis likely landing big money elsewhere, adding another player here is important. (87) New York Jets (via SEA) - EDGE Payton Turner, Houston - A versatile pass rusher who can fit either a 4-3 or 3-4. Whatever system Saleh installs, Turner should find a home quickly. (88) Las Vegas Raiders (via PIT) - LB Dylan Moses, Alabama - Once considered a potential top-10 pick, Moses has fallen off a bit, but the Raiders take a chance on him nonetheless. (89) Detroit Lions (via LAR) - WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State - Detroit should probably consider hitting the wide receiver position multiple times in the draft. The cabinet is empty there. (90) Cleveland Browns - LB Ventrell Miller, Florida - The Browns linebackers are a major weak spot. If Cleveland wants to contend for the division, adding some speed there in Miller would help. (91) Minnesota Vikings (via BAL) - S Paris Ford, Pittsburgh - With S Anthony Harris likely headed elsewhere in free agency, the Vikings take a chance on the hard-hitting ford as a replacement. (92) Cleveland Browns - EDGE Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh - Back-to-back selections of Pitt Panthers here, Rashad is an excellent pass rusher to add into the mix. (93) Green Bay Packers - DT Tommy Togiai, Ohio State - The Packers add some beef to the inside of their defense, hoping to solidify a shaky group outside of DT Kenny Clark. (94) Buffalo Bills - iOL Josh Myers, Ohio State - The Bills grab a starting caliber lineman here in Myers, who should help bolster the interior of their offensive line and give a boost to their run game. (95) Kansas City Chiefs - OT Jackson Carmen, Clemson - The Chiefs need another offensive tackle to throw into the mix, as neither Eric Fisher nor Mitchell Schwartz figure to be around for too much longer. (96) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State - While Wilson didn't dominant as many expected him to in 2020, perhaps slotting him alongside Vita Vea will free up mismatches for him. Compensatory Selections (97) Los Angeles Chargers - G Quinn Meinerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater - Meinrez blew up the Senior Bowl, and could easily land as a top-100 prospect after that showing. LAC is a good fit here. (98) Philadelphia Eagles - TE Brevin Jordan, Miami - With Zach Ertz and Philadelphia likely parting ways soon enough, Jordan gives the Eagles a gadget replacement in the passing game. (99) Dallas Cowboys - CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State - Another corner for Dallas as they really could use two strong selections to help rebuild the position. Samuel excels in the slot. (100) New Orleans Saints - WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson - The Saints add the best player on the board here for me, an exceptional wide out who will pair well with Michael Thomas. (101) Tennessee Titans - DT Marlon Tuipulotu, USC - The Titans add another body to their defensive front, in hopes that Marlon and Simmons can become a dominant duo inside. (102) Los Angeles Rams - WR Josh Imatorbhebhe, Illinois - One of the most underrated wide outs in the class, due to the lack of offensive savvy around him. Imatorbhebhe reminds me of Kenny Golladay, so pairing him with new Rams QB Matthew Stafford out to be fun. (103) Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB - A long, toolsy pass rusher to develop into a sidekick for Danielle Hunter is the pick here for Mike Zimmer and co. (104) San Francisco 49ers - OT Walker Little, Stanford - I'm certain the 49ers will bring back LT Trent Williams, but how much longer does he really have? Meanwhile, Little can play guard before taking over at left tackle soon enough. (105) Los Angeles Rams - EDGE Shaka Toney, Penn State - Toney has good burst off the edge and with OLB Leonard Floyd headed towards the market, the Rams could stand to add some pass rushers. (106) New Orleans Saints - RB Trey Sermon, Ohio State - With a cap crunch, paying $4 million for Latavius Murray may be a luxury the Saints cannot afford. Cutting him and drafting Sermon can offset that.
Fourth Round
Just a reminder, but almost half of all fourth-round selections (46%) are no longer on the roster after two years in their career, so don't take these picks too seriously, as this is also where teams start to diverge from needs a bit more and go best available. The aim is rotational players who might be contributors by their 3rd year with the franchise. If you have a significant need, fill it in free agency, not the day three of the draft. If you're banking on your team to find a starter here at a key position, you're already kind of screwed. Really I'm less focused on needs as opposed to getting good value here. Am trying to avoid doubling up on prospects, but sometimes teams actually do that. (107) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU(108) New York Jets - G David Moore, Grambling State(109) Atlanta Falcons - S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State(110) Houston Texans - QB Jaime Newman, Georgia - The Texans don't draft a QB in the first, but do take a chance on Newman's upside to develop behind Bridgewater. (111) Cleveland Browns - WR Seth Williams, Auburn(112) Cincinnati Bengals - S Jamien Sherwood, Auburn(113) Detroit Lions - EDGE Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma(114) Carolina Panthers - LB Baron Browning, Ohio State(115) Denver Broncos - RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State - With Lindsay hitting the market, maybe the Broncos don't bring him back and Jefferson as a change of pace back behind Gordon instead. (116) Dallas Cowboys - TE Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame(117) New York Giants - RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma - An excellent backup for Saquon Barkley if the Giants don't re-sign Wayne Gallman. (118) San Francisco 49ers - S James Wiggins, Cincinnati(119) Los Angeles Chargers - RB Demetric Falcon, UCLA(120) Minnesota Vikings - WR Dazz Newsome, North Carolina (121) New England Patriots - WR Whop Philyor, Indiana(122) Las Vegas Raiders - G Sadarius Hutcherson, South Carolina(123) Houston Texans - WR Marlon Williams, UCF(124) Miami Dolphins - DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh(125) Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina - The Jags had a good year out of Sidney Jones, but still could use an intriguing developmental option like Mukuamu behind him. (126) Minnesota Vikings - LB Pete Werner, Ohio State(127) Tennessee Titans - G Ben Cleveland, Georgia(128) Indianapolis Colts - WR Jaelon Darden, North Texas(129) Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Kary Vincent Jr., LSU - The Steelers get some excellent value here, as I think Vincent is one of the top slot corners in the draft. Could easily replace Hilton. (130) Seattle Seahawks - CB Shakur Brown, Michigan State (131) Jacksonville Jaguars - LB Monty Rice, Georgia(132) Baltimore Ravens - iOL Trey Hill, Georgia(133) Cleveland Browns - TE Cary Angeline, North Carolina State(134) New Orleans Saints - EDGE Tarron Jackson, Coastal Carolina - With Trey Hendrickson likely departing and Marcus Davenport still yet to hit double-digit sacks, the Saints may look to add another piece to develop here. (135) Minnesota Vikings - RB Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech (136) Green Bay Packers - OT James Hudson, Cincinnati(137) Kansas City Chiefs - LB Anthony Hines III, Texas A&M - A quick linebacker, he'd fit nicely into the Chiefs defense alongside Willie Gay and others. (138) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - QB Davis Mills, Stanford(139) New England Patriots - EDGE Adetokunbo Ogundeji, Notre Dame(140) Dallas Cowboys - S Ar'Darius Washington, TCU (141) Los Angeles Rams - TE Tre McKitty, Georgia(142) Pittsburgh Steelers - DT Darius Stills, West Virginia(143) Green Bay Packers - RB Kylin Hill, Mississippi State - With Aaron Jones hitting the market, the Packers may look for another back to add to their rotation. Hill would be a great addition. (144) Kansas City Chiefs - CB Roger McCreary, Auburn(145) New England Patriots - OT Cordell Volson, North Dakota State
Fifth Round
(146) Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Brady Christensen, BYU(147) New York Jets - DL Brenton Cox, Florida(148) Houston Texans - EDGE Jonathan Cooper, Ohio State(149) Atlanta Falcons - EDGE Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina - PFF actually lists Enagbare as a top-100 player on their latest big board, which, if accurate, would be tremendous value. (150) Cincinnati Bengals - WR Anthony Schwartz, Auburn (151) Philadelphia Eagles - CB Robert Rochell, Central Arkansas - Big fan of Rochell's a potential starter down the road. Would fit well with Marcus Gannon calling the defense. (152) Carolina Panthers - G Kendrick Green, Illinois(153) Denver Broncos - QB Kellen Mond, Texas A&M(154) Detroit Lions - CB Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky(155) New York Jets - S Caden Sterns, Texas (156) San Francisco 49ers - CB Camryn Bynum, California(157) Philadelphia Eagles - OT Adrian Ealy, Oklahoma(158) Minnesota Vikings - CB Rodarius Williams, Oklahoma State(159) New England Patriots - DT Milton Williams, Louisiana Tech(160) Los Angeles Chargers - WR Simi Fehoko, Stanford (161) Arizona Cardinals - RB Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State - He'd be an excellent fit in the Cardinals backfield, especially if Kenyan Drake does not return. (162) Buffalo Bills - CB Tay Gowan, UCF(163) Las Vegas Raiders - QB Feleipe Franks, Arkansas(164) Washington Football Team - WR Jonathan Adams Jr., Arkansas State(165) Chicago Bears - CB D.J. Daniel, Georgia (166) Indianapolis Colts - OT Brendan Jaimes, Nebraska(167) Tennessee Titans - OLB Charles Snowden, Virginia(168) Seattle Seahawks - OT Dan Moore Jr., Texas A&M(169) Baltimore Ravens - QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas - Unless the Ravens are certain that Trace McSorley is their backup QB, they may want to look at adding Ehlinger behind Lamar. (170) Cleveland Browns - LB Tony Fields II, West Virginia (171) Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Tamorrion Terry, Florida State(172) Minnesota Vikings - QB Ian Book, Notre Dame(173) San Francisco 49ers - iOL Drake Jackson, Kentucky(174) Green Bay Packers - CB Ambry Thomas, Michigan(175) Buffalo Bills - S Reed Blankenship, Middle Tennessee State (176) Kansas City Chiefs - EDGE Malcolm Koonce, Buffalo(177) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - LB Garrett Wallow, Texas Christian(178) Green Bay Packers - S Tyree Gillespie, Missouri(179) Atlanta Falcons - C James Empey, BYU - The Falcons find themselves a quality interior lineman who could use a year to develop before getting in the mix to replace Alex Mack down the road. (180) Dallas Cowboys - WR Josh Palmer, Tennessee (181) Baltimore Ravens - S Qwynterrio Cole, Alcorn State(182) San Francisco 49ers - WR Marquez Stevenson, Houston(183) Kansas City Chiefs - RB Pooka Williams, Kansas
Sixth Round
(184) Tennessee Titans - QB Shane Buechele, Texas(185) New York Jets - LB Paddy Fisher, Northwestern(186) Atlanta Falcons - G Aaron Banks, Notre Dame - Love the value here for the Falcons, and if they do have to cut James Carpenter, Banks could be a useful piece. (187) Houston Texans - iOL Jack Anderson, Texas Tech(188) Philadelphia Eagles - S JaCoby Stevens, LSU(189) Cincinnati Bengals - DT Khryis Tonga, BYU(190) Denver Broncos - DT Bobby Brown III, Texas A&M (191) Dallas Cowboys - G Josh Sills, Oklahoma State(192) Carolina Panthers - DT Carlo Kemp, Michigan(193) San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Daelin Hayes - The 49ers showed a good deal of interest in Hayes at the Senior Bowl per reports. He'd be a nice depth option on the edge. (194) New England Patriots - CB Benjamin St.-Juste, Minnesota(195) New York Giants - CB Thomas Graham Jr., Oregon (196) New England Patriots - G Tristen Hoge, BYU(197) Los Angeles Chargers - S Eric Burrell, Wisconsin(198) Minnesota Vikings - OT Alex Himmelman, Illinois State(199) Las Vegas Raiders - PICK FORFEITED(200) New York Giants - LB K.J. Britt, Auburn (201) Houston Texans - DL Cameron Sample, Tulane(202) Las Vegas Raiders - WR Austin Watkins, UAB(203) Chicago Bears - OT Bryce Matthews, Ole Miss(204) Los Angeles Chargers - WR Isaiah McKoy, Kent State(205) Indianapolis Colts - WR Damon Hazelton, Missouri - This stretch of wide receivers looks like solid value, especially Hazelton in Reich's offense. (206) Miami Dolphins - TE Kenny Yeboah, Ole Miss - Yeboah got to work with Miami's coaching staff at the Senior Bowl, so I'd imagine they have a good feel for his use. (207) Seattle Seahawks - DT Mustafa Johnson, Colorado(208) Los Angeles Rams - OT Robert Hainsey, Notre Dame(209) Baltimore Ravens - G Robert Jones, Middle Tennessee State(210) Cleveland Browns - CB Trill Williams, Syracuse (211) Houston Texans - RB Jaret Patterson, Buffalo(212) Buffalo Bills - RB Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana(213) Green Bay Packers - WR Cade Johnson, South Dakota State(214) Pittsburgh Steelers - C Jimmy Morrissey, Pittsburgh(215) Tennessee Titans - S Aashari Crosswell, Arizona State (216) Atlanta Falcons - LB Derrick Barnes, Purdue(217) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TE Quintin Morris, Bowling Green(218) Atlanta Falcons - OT Greg Eiland, Mississippi State(219) Philadelphia Eagles - RB Javian Hawkins, Louisville(220) Chicago Bears - EDGE Chris Rumph Jr., Duke (221) Green Bay Packers - DE William King-Bradley, Baylor(222) Chicago Bears - S Shawn Davis, Florida(223) Minnesota Vikings - G Ben Brown, Ole Miss(224) Philadelphia Eagles - LB Grant Stuard, Houston
Seventh Round
(225) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Malik Herring, Georgia(226) San Francisco 49ers - TE Noah Gray, Duke(227) Houston Texans - CB Tre Brown, Oklahoma(228) Chicago Bears - LB Justin Hilliard, Ohio State(229) Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Elerson Smith, Northern Iowa(230) Philadelphia Eagles - WR Ben Skowronek, Northwestern (231) Cincinnati Bengals - DT TaQuon Graham, Texas(232) Buffalo Bills - S Divine Deablo, Virginia Tech(233) Denver Broncos - S Damar Hamlin, Pittsburgh(234) Green Bay Packers - LB Riley Cole, South Alabama(235) Denver Broncos - WR Cornell Powell, Clemson (236) San Francisco 49ers - WR Frank Darby, Arizona State(237) Los Angeles Chargers - DB Darrin Hall, San Diego State(238) Minnesota Vikings - WR Trevon Grimes, Florida(239) New England Patriots - DE Wyatt Hubert, Kansas State(240) Arizona Cardinals - OT Jaylon Moore, Western Michigan (241) Washington Football Team - G Jake Curhan, California(242) Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Bryan Mills, North Carolina Central(243) Washington Football Team - RB Chris Evans, Michigan(244) Las Vegas Raiders - CB Mark Webb, Georgia(245) Indianapolis Colts - RB Larry Roundtree, Missouri (246) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Forrest Merrill, Arkansas State(247) New York Jets - WR Tre Walker,(248) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Joshua Kaindoh, Florida State(249) Los Angeles Rams - CB Bryce Thompson, Tennessee(250) Cleveland Browns - QB Brady White, Memphis (251) Denver Broncos - EDGE Patrick Johnson, Tulane(252) New Orleans Saints - PICK FORFEITED(253) Green Bay Packers - DT Jack Heflin, Northern Illinois(254) Cleveland Browns - CB Nahshon Wright, Oregon State(255) Kansas City Chiefs - DT Kobie Whiteside, Missouri(256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Desmond Fitzpatrick, Louisville You'll notice there are no special teams listed...mostly because I don't have a clue who needs a K/P/LS. That actually might be something useful to mention if you're team really needs someone. Feel free to comment...I won't really be looking at them until next week, as I've spent too much time putting this together and now I need a break from this website. Just don't be a d*** is all I ask. It's shockingly hard for some people when it comes to internet mock drafts. Did this for fun, hope you had fun reading it.
Game Matchups Preview AFC Championship: Bills @ Chiefs
Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills’ roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 19th iteration of this analysis for the Bills’ upcoming AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in Kansas City. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage). NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long then you are well aware that these playoff posts are significantly longer. The increased length is intended to provide more details on the Bills’ opponent, including basic breakdowns of their offensive and defensive philosophies. If this is your first time reading this post and/or you are a Chiefs’ fan, feedback is always welcome! Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Defense In 2020 the Buffalo Bills have gone from “Lovable Losers” to one of the most feared franchises in the NFL. A team which just last season was considered one built on a foundation of a fearsome defense and a mobile Quarterback has undergone a shift in perception rarely seen in the NFL. Yes, that defense is still scary (More on that later) and yes, the man under Center can still run (Also more on that later) but the evolution of two players in particular have altered the way that opposing teams, and their fans, view the Buffalo Bills. The first some may consider the Bills’ 2020 1st round pick and since arriving in Buffalo has done nothing less than stake his claim as one of, if not the, best WRs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has beaten anyone and everyone in front of him collecting 6+ catches in 17 out of his 18 games totaling 141 catches for 1770 yards and 10 TDs. These gaudy statistics are just the tangible portion of what Diggs has brought to the Bills while the intangible is derived from his mere presence, which has ignited a swagger not seen in Buffalo since, well, ever. Throwing him the ball is a man that has been analyzed and critiqued ad nauseum, the newest member of the Fraternity of Franchise QBs, Joshua Patrick Allen. At 5,564 yards and 50 TDs Allen has entrenched himself in the top tier of QBs, a set of players that defensive coordinators look to contain as opposed to stopping entirely and though few achieve this level of NFL success note that doing so does not preclude them from the occasional rough stretch. And that is exactly what happened to Josh Allen during the 4-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8. In that span Allen, who would finish the regular season with a Passer Rating (PR) of 107.2, had a PR of just 79.2. This included a game against the Bills’ AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, where Allen had his worst Completion % of the season (51.9%) and his second lowest PR (73.4). Many have pondered what the root cause(s) of these struggles were for a QB who now will likely finish Top-3 in MVP voting, and two causes tend to be consistently repeated. The first of these, the weather, can easily be debunked. Against the Chiefs Josh Allen’s adjusted completion % (Less Drops) was 56.0% while Patrick Mahomes who, played in the same weather, had an adjusted completion % of 91.3%. It’s hard to fathom that the weather was such a detriment to only one QB that it resulted in him being 35.3% less “accurate” than the other. The second is a bit harder to debunk and is actually backed by some “expert” testimony. Just 15 days earlier in a game against Las Vegas, Allen would be hit awkwardly while attempting to extend a play and suffer an injury to his non-dominant (left) shoulder resulting in what many believe to have been a grade 1 AC Joint sprain. An injury which takes between 4-6 weeks to heal fits the timeline of Allen’s 4 weeks of below average QB play and is even propped up by 3-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselback agreeing that such an injury makes it more difficult for a Quarterback to deliver a pass to his target accurately. Out of these two I find the injury much more plausible but after going back and watching the Chiefs @ Bills’ game I find it hard to believe either of these were the primary reason for the Chiefs domination of the Bills’ passing attack. With that in mind the best explanation, and what I believe to be the most likely, is that Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo simply had a brilliant game plan which the Chiefs executed perfectly ultimately slowing down the air attack of the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs plan was simple yet concise, blitz from all different angles while disguising coverage pre-snap. They would finish the game with 14 blitzes sending a total of 26 blitzers, 12 from LBs (Hitchens, Wilson, & Niemann), 3 from CBs (Fenton & Breeland), and 11 from Safeties (Mathieu & Sorensen). This constant shift in the level extra pass rushers were coming from often left the Bills’ OL scrambling to recover resulting in their QB being pressured on a season high 35.5% of dropbacks (His season average is 20.7%). Simultaneously the Chiefs were mixing Man and Zone coverage schemes which often included a deep spy that was keying off Josh Allen’s eyes. Allowing the Chiefs to accomplish this was a secondary stacked with “Jack-Of-All-Trades” CBs and one of the better safety trios, yes trios, in the NFL championed by a possible future HOF. Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Sneed are all capable of covering the X, Y, or Z allowing the Chiefs to conceal their coverages and trade off assignments at will. Breeland the most notorious and proficient of the three works with hands on his assignment in order to control their movement and was flagged a total of 9 times this season, 3 of which came against the Bills. Behind them is a trio of Safeties that make the entire defense click; Daniel Sorensen, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill, who is primarily used in Nickel sets which the Chiefs run north of 60% of the time. Sorensen is as close as you can get to a modern-day John Lynch, a hard-hitting safety with ball skills that allow him to effectively play Center Field on deep passes. Mathieu is the afore mentioned HOF hopeful and can play anywhere from the LOS to a deep prevent position. One of the most feared defenders in all of football expect the Honey Badger to spy Josh Allen more than any other player on the Chiefs and make a few highlight reel plays at Arrowhead Sunday night. Ultimately this matchup comes down to two things, can the Bills OL recognize the blitz pre-snap and can the Bills’ receivers find holes in the defense. From the perspective of the OL they are vastly improved since their last matchup with the Chiefs with Ike Boettger replacing Brian Winters at LG and Jon Feliciano returning from injury to man the RG position. These two bring a physicality to the OL which was surely lacking prior to their arrival. At the receiver position there is a bit more concern with Gabe Davis a DNP and both Cole Beasley & Stefon Diggs limited as of Thursday night’s injury report. It is a near certainty that both Beasley and Diggs will see the field Sunday night, but the possible loss of Gabe Davis looms large. The good news for Bills’ fans is that this is the exact reason the Bills went out and got Kenny Stills so if Gabe Davis is truly a no go expect to see Stills for the first time in a Bills’ uniform. There are two more dark horse candidates for a big game through the air, WR Isaiah McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox. McKenzie has played just 12 snaps so far throughout the playoffs but is due for a push pass or two especially against a blitz heavy team like the Chiefs. As for Dawson Knox his size and athleticism may be too much for the Chiefs LBs to handle which would then require Daniel Sorensen to come down into coverage. This would keep Sorensen out of the box and free up more underneath routes for the Bills. As with every week it comes down to individual matchups and whoever wins theirs will win this one. P.S. Don’t forget about John “Smoke” Brown. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Defense While the Passing Game for the Bills has evolved into one of the best in the NFL the running game has regressed to the bottom tier of the league. This ineptitude has reached new depths with the Bills’ Running Backs combining for just 71 rushing yards (Josh Allen has 57) over the first two games of the playoffs. For context, all Non-Bills’ Playoff games have featured at least one player with 75+ rushing yards. Bills Mafia has been aware of these struggles since early in the season and exorcised their demons by lighting into OC Brian Daboll after he “excessively” ran the ball against the Colts. The following week, against the Ravens, Daboll flipped the script handing the ball off just 1 time in the first half and 9 times total to RBs who combined for a Y/A of just 3.2. It is abundantly clear to not just the Buffalo Bills but every other team in the NFL that this Bills’ team is a pass first team however, some semblance of balance will be needed if they are to reach the full potential necessary to chase down the Lombardi trophy. Dependent on the gameplan which the Chiefs employ, running the ball could be an important part of the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. If the Chiefs do force the issue the Bills will be contending with the 19th ranked team in Y/A that just gave up over 5.0 Y/A against the Browns in the Divisional round. Of course that’s a Browns’ team that has both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who were running behind one of the best run blocking OLs (#6 Adjusted Line Yards) in the NFL however, the Browns success against the Chiefs does not necessitate similar results for the Bills’ Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon who are running behind an inferior run blocking OL (#15 Adjusted Line Yards). Making it even more unlikely that the Bills could find success with a similar style of play is that most of the Browns’ success came when running the ball between the tackles. On 19 RB carries the Browns had 7 that went for 5+ yards 5 of which came when attacking this area. This relied heavily on the Browns interior line controlling the opposing DTs allowing the runners to get to the second level. There is a further problem with this plan of attack though and he goes by the name of Chirs Jones. The massive 5-year vet drafted in the 2nd round out of Mississippi St. is a rare talent in the NFL, a game wrecker that can alter the outcome of any week. When talking about the best DTs in the NFL you will often hear names like Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Cameron Heyward but outside of Donald, there may be no one better at the position than Chris Jones. For his massive frame, 6’6” 310lb, Jones possesses incredible quickness that provides him with a tool bag of moves that range from outright bull rushes to tight swim moves. Jones is a pass rush expert that often finds his way into the lap of opposing QBs but his consistency in disrupting the run is what makes him one of the best all-around defenders in football. A disruptive bowling ball next to him comes in the form of NT Derrick Nnadi who I would doubt exceeds 50% of the defensive snaps this week with the Chiefs likely electing to go lighter in an effort to further disrupt the Bills’ passing attack. This means you should expect to see significantly more of the Chiefs primary 3-man DE rotation in Tershawn Wharton, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Like their comrades in the secondary each of these 3 players can play multiple positions provided by their quickness to set the edge and the size and strength to stuff the middle making them nightmare matchups for contending offensive linemen. This all leads to the consensus that whether it be Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, Devonta Freeman, or even Reggie Gilliam the Bills will struggle to move the ball on the ground consistently, but they do have one X-Factor. That man is their rumbling bumbling 6’5” 240lb buffalo of a man, quarterback Josh Allen. In the last game against Kansas City Allen was able to account for 42 rushing yards on 8 carries often finding a corner to run to and beating the Chiefs LBs to the spot. The Chiefs have 3 good ones in Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, and Ben Niemann who are all talented football players with large frames that allow them to handle extra blockers but that comes with a limitation to speed and quickness over the middle. The Bills will need to occasionally find success on the ground if they want to win the Time of Possession battle and all signs point to any success in the matter only available via one avenue, the legs of #17. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Offense The Buffalo Bills play one of the most difficult defensive schemes to master in all of football, the Palms Defense. At a very high level this Zone scheme is built on the coverage units’ ability to communicate and trade off players as they get deeper into their routes. Its effectiveness begins with its pre-snap deceit which some Quarterbacks will find difficult to identify but culminates post-snap where it is nearly impossible to determine where the reads and tradeoffs will occur. It is the defensive equivalent of the Zone-Read offense and flips the advantage to favor the defense. This scheme has been utilized since Sean McDermott became the head coach of the Bills in 2017 and has resulted in them finishing no lower in Passer Rating (PR) against than 6th since that point in time. Even the 2020 Buffalo Bills would finish the season 5th overall with a PR against of 86.9 which early in the season seemed like an impossible feat. Up until the Chiefs’ game the Bills were being torched through the air with a PR against of 103.6. If that were to have continued for the entire 2020 campaign the Bills would have finished 29th in the NFL in this statistic. This reached its crescendo against the Chiefs where despite bailing out to stop the pass, and then getting gashed on the ground, the Bills still managed to give up a PR of 128.4. There was clearly something wrong with a passing defense that by all measures had regressed as much or more so than the Bills’ QB had progressed, so I sought out to determine what the issue was. After a quick re-watch of the Chiefs’ game I came to find that the Palms defense was breaking down repeatedly with no clearer example than Travis Kelce’s second touchdown reception. I won’t rehash the entire analysis (If interested read the beginning of Bills’ Passing Defensehere) but the tradeoffs necessitated by Palms were failing at nearly every turn. Something happened after the Chiefs game though, and the Bills began to find a rhythm. In fact, they found such a rhythm that through the remainder of the season they would hold opposing teams to a PR of just 72.6 and have continued that dominance in the playoffs allowing one of just 78.9. This Bills’ team that spent the early part of the 2020 season struggling to stop inferior opponents from moving the ball through the air and is now the best remaining team at stopping it which could come in handy with the remaining playoff QBs being Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and… Patrick Mahomes. For the sake of this post I’m ignoring the “Will He, Won’t He” on whether or not he will play because I am fairly confident “He Will”. So, what is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes? Over the first few seasons of his career he owns just about every record a QB can own as well as an MVP award, a Lombardi Trophy, and a Super Bowl MVP. My definition of a “Gunslinger” Mahomes is willing to attempt any throw on the football field and can make any of those throws. As much as, if not more so than, Josh Allen, Mahomes’ excels when he breaks the pocket and the play falls apart leaving him to ad-lib with a slew of weapons and a well-coached offense that is able to take advantage of recovering defenders. Always the best player on the field, when Mahomes is on there is almost no stopping him and frankly, when he is off it’s still nearly impossible. The recipe for beating him is simply stated, and difficult to execute, the 1 or 2 throws a game where he misses his target, must be converted into turnovers. This is in no way meant as a slight to Mahomes however, he has the perfect players around him that allow him to execute his game as he desires. On the one hand is Travis Kelce who may go down in history as the greatest TE to ever play the position and is, in my opinion, the best receiving threat to ever do it. In 2020 Kelce played just 15 games but broke the record for receiving yards by a TE with 1416 while raking in 105 catches and 11 TDs. The Bills attempt to limit him by alternating their LBs and Safeties onto him which results in the Bills spending more time in Big Nickel pushing players like Siran Neal onto the field more often. Next up is the man known as “Cheetah”, Tyreek Hill. Hill is one of the more disrespected on field talents in the NFL and statistically is right there with players like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Better yet, Hill fits Mahomes in the same way Diggs fits Allen except as more of a home run threat that is going to consistently test Micah Hyde’s prowess as one of the best prevent safeties in the NFL. Outside of Hill and Kelce there are a ton of other weapons for this passing game to utilize. The speedy Mecole Hardman, the “Real Deal” Demarcus Robinson, and the Bills’ previous #4 overall pick Sammy Watkins. Pick your poison against this team but regardless the Bills’ CBs and especially their Safeties will have their hands full Sunday night. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Offense The Bills’ rushing defense is coming off a game in which they may not have shut down the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack, but they surely contained it. This was a Ravens’ team that led the NFL in Rushing Y/G at 191.2 and Y/A at 5.5 and managed just 150 yards at 4.7 Y/A against the Bills. How was Buffalo able to do this? Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier challenged the Ravens to beat them through the air by running 3 LB sets on 41% of snaps and bringing down one of Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde to stack the box with 7 or 8 players on nearly every play. This, often, left the Bills’ DBs matched up in a rare version of single coverage which the Bills won on a consistent basis. An eye-opening game for the Bills and one that they won because of scheme, a scheme they can’t afford to run against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are more than competent of moving the ball on the ground, when at full health. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) burst onto the scene early in 2020 and was on pace to finish with just around 1000 rushing yards before suffering a substantial high-ankle sprain against the Saints on December 20th. Sidelined now for just over 1 month CEH is bordering on healthy enough to play with the average recovery time between 4-6 weeks. If CEH cannot suit up the likely replacement for him is not Le’Veon Bell (Who is now dealing with a knee injury) but instead 3rd year back Darrel Williams. In the Chiefs’ 1st playoff game against the Browns Williams would finish with 13 carries to Bells’ 2. Primarily a deep depth player Williams is getting more work now than he has at any other point in his professional career. Dynamic enough a player in his Senior season at LSU, with 1151 yards and 9 TDs on 168 touches, the Chiefs took a flyer on him picking him up as an undrafted rookie in 2018. A 1-cut back that finishes downhill Williams who is listed at 5’11” 224lb looks much smaller but plays like a bruiser. As for the previously mentioned Le’Veon Bell, he has exceeded 35% of offensive snaps just once since joining the Chiefs and saw a season low of 16% in the first round of the playoffs. I postured it when it happened but with the Bills in the mix for Bell earlier in the season is it possible the Chiefs were keeping him away from a team they could see in the AFC Championship game? Something to think about. In front of whoever is running the ball is an offensive line, that like the Bills, looks a little different from the last time these two teams faced off. At Center the Chiefs elected to start veteran Daniel Kilgore over presumptive starter Austin Reiter. Reiter would eventually regain his starting role in Week 9 and will get the start against the Bills on Sunday. At RT Mitchell Schwartz started the game against Buffalo but after suffering a back injury early in that game has now been replaced by ex-Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, and Giants tackle Mike Remmers. The other 3 positions are held by men that Bills saw in their last matchup. Andre Wylie (RG), an undrafted free agent from 2018, and Nick Allegretti (LG), a 7th round pick in 2019, man the guard positions where they combine to be roughly 630 pounds and are capable of pushing the DTs in front of them back into opposing LBs. The OL is topped off by its headliner, Left Tackle, Eric Fisher who earned his second Pro Bowl nod this season and has been one of the more consistent linemen in the NFL over his 8-year career which started with him being the #1 overall pick in 2013. Fisher has incredibly quick feet and long arms which will provide him an advantage over whichever pass rusher lines up over him. I would not be surprised in the least if the Bills employ the same defensive scheme they did against the Chiefs in their first matchup during the AFC Championship game. Forcing the Chiefs to run the ball at a defense which now includes the most underrated player in all the NFL, Matt Milano, should play right into Buffalo’s hands. If the Chiefs take the bait and elect to go this route it should surprise everyone if they exceed their 221 rushing yards from the previous matchup. The Bills’ Front 7 has vastly improved since that matchup and should see new faces, including Harrison Phillips, making plays up front. Expect a light lineup at times during the game meaning more Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson as the Bills’ attempt to pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to run up the middle. This puts heavy reliance on the Bills’ LBs to clean up the scraps which via dramatic improvement, Tremaine Edmunds looks more capable of now than at any other point in the season. One player that goes un-talked about way more than he should is Safety Jordan Poyer. A massive Pro Bowl snub, Poyer is playing with a chip on his shoulder and under the bright lights with a chance to prove why he is not just one of the best in the AFC but the entire NFL, expect a big game from him and keep your eyes peeled for his use of the “Peanut Punch”. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chiefs’ Special Teams Coming into the playoffs the Buffalo Bills were widely considered to have one of the best ST units in the entire NFL, which has been tested through 2 weeks. In the Wildcard round the Buffalo Bills played the Indianapolis Colts whose Special Teams consisted of above average return groups, excellent coverage units, a similar kicker to the Bills, and one of the more efficient punters in the NFL. The Bills may have lost the field position battle here but when calling upon their punter and kicker they answered the bell every time while a Colts’ missed kick ultimately decided the game. Against the Ravens the Bills would play one of, if not, the greatest kickers of all time in Justin Tucker, a punter that had barely given up any return yards, and solid return and coverage teams. As the game ended the Bills and Ravens’ Punters paced each other, as did the Bills rookie Kicker to Justin Tucker, while Andre Roberts was the only return man able to pick up yards in the return game (34 in total). Were these decisive victories for the Bills against opposing Special Teams? No. But when going against the best and at a minimum finishing neck and neck with them the Bills’ Special Teams have clearly announced themselves as a weapon in the playoffs. As we roll on in the playoffs I would not be surprised if, though I would advise against, this is the last time we see Andre Roberts in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform. Still, the 2020 2nd Team All-Pro is a weapon for Buffalo and while he still is yet to score a TD for the Bills don’t be surprised if he has a splash play or two left in him. Heck, there is even a chance he could be the deciding factor between the Chiefs and Bills. At Punter is Corey Bojorquez who has had a Renaissance of a season and is undoubtedly in the upper echelon of Punters in the NFL. Last is Bills’ Kicker Tyler Bass who against the Ravens missed his first FG kick(s) since his 61-yard miss against Seattle back in early November. Bass quietly put together a rookie season for the ages and looks to be on the trajectory to emerge as one of the better kickers in the NFL. For the Chiefs they trot out 2019 Pro Bowl return man Mecole Hardman who is one of the scarier return men in the NFL. In 2020 his stats have dropped off drastically as he has fallen to 7.0 Y/PR (9.3 in 2019) and 20.4 Y/KR (26.1 in 2020). Still Hardman did bring a punt back for a TD this season and has 4.33 40yd speed making him a dangerous return man to contend with on Sunday. This means for the 3rd straight game Bills’ fans can expect Buffalo to bypass their short kick strategy and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. At Punter is Tommy Townsend the rookie out of Florida who had a solid campaign as a Punter in his first season. Townsend would finish the season with a Punt Avg of 45.0 and a Net Punt Avg of 40.4 right around the middle of the NFL in both categories. At kicker is Harrison Butker who at times is in contention for best kicker in the NFL and at others misses kicks that even Sam Ficken could hit. On the regular season Butker went 25 of 27 on Field Goals with misses from 42 and 48 but just 48 of 54 (88.9%) from XP. In his first playoff game against the Browns Butker would go on to miss 1 of 2 FGs (33yd) and 1 XP. This is without a doubt something to monitor during the AFC Championship. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 Why We Will Lose All season long these posts have been filled with a recurring statement, “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team”. Sure, I could argue that to be true this week, but I could just as easily argue that the Chiefs are more talented. It all starts on offense where a large amount of the credit is owed to…Andy Reid? Yes, Andy Reid the coach who had turned Donovan McNabb into a household name, Michael Vick into an MVP contender, and Alex Smith into a perennial winner as a starting QB has now been handed the keys to a QB who may just be better than all of them combined. Reid will find the weak points in the Bills’ defense and he will attack them over and over until the Chiefs put up enough points to win the game. Kelce is a mismatch, Hill is a zone breaker, they will run the ball effectively, and Mahomes will make big play after big play. And then there’s their unheralded defense that has quietly been improving as the season went on and at points was the key to them winning football games. They have the two dynamos in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones who have been described in detail above while the other 9 players on the field with them complement each other well. The Chiefs will send complex blitzes at Allen, stuff the run, blow up the Bills’ receivers and force multiple turnovers turning what should be a close game into a blowout. All those statements are feasible outcomes of this game and if even a portion of them were to occur expect the Chiefs to head to their second straight Super Bowl. Why We Will Win This is not the same Bills’ team that the Chiefs played on October 19th. This isn’t the same Bills’ team that people have known for the past quarter century. Instead this is a Bills’ team that has showed an affinity for showing up when the whole world is watching. Led by one of the toughest coaches in the NFL the Bills will arrive in Kansas City prepared and their OC, Brian Daboll, will have a gameplan ready to attack a Chiefs’ defense which does not match up well with the Bills’ offense. Yes, they have a competent secondary but if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were unable to shutdown Stefon Diggs who on the Chiefs will be able to? Factor that in with the other weapons the Bills have in the passing game and a Quarterback that will surely exceed what he did the last time these two teams met, and the Bills are on the precipice of a 30+ point outing. Is this the same defense that the Chiefs saw in the early part of the 2020 season? No. Back then the Bills’ Palms defense was struggling, and they were without the player that makes their defense hum, OLB Matt Milano. Still, the defense came inches away from turning the tide of the game in October when Justin Zimmer tackled CEH for a 4-yard loss and what looked to be a fumble but was later overturned. By mere inches the Chiefs avoided giving the ball to the Bills on the 35-yard line up 6 with 5:23 left to play. But close only counts in horseshoes in hand grenades and on Sunday night this Bills’ defense isn’t looking for close enough, they are looking to dominate. Turnovers are the key for the Bills and if Buffalo can limit them on their side and force 2+ by KC then the Buffalo Bills who are STARVING to get to a Super Bowl will punch their ticket to Tampa Bay. Prediction:Bills 31 – Chiefs 28 Coming into writing this post I was confident I was going to choose the Chiefs to win this game. They already beat the Bills this season, the game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are experienced in the AFC Championship. Then I started looking at the matchups and I noticed that most of the downfalls of their previous game resembled more aberrations than dominations. Don’t get me wrong the Chiefs could easily win this game but something just feels right about picking Buffalo this week. I expect this game to go down as one of those instant classics we talk about years from now and possibly start a new rivalry in the NFL. At the end of the day I think there will be one big play that decides this game. It could be a Honey Badger strip sack, could be a tip drill between Hyde and Poyer, could be a last second scramble by Patty Mahomes, or could be a rocket thrown by Josh Allen hitting Diggs deep. But I’ll take the Bills making that play. So, Mount Up Mafia, it’s almost game time.
Lawrence is a generational prospect and will be the first overall pick unless a crash happens. He’s the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck and may flip the fortunes for the Jaguars franchise.
Fields is still QB2 on my Big Board. He is the embodiment of the next generation of stars coming into the NFL, bolstering serious running capability and tremendous arm talent.
Imagine trading an elite tackle only to find the replacement in the draft a year later and then also get an additional pick out of it. While tackle isn’t the biggest need, it improves two spots of the offensive line. The Dolphins can move Robert Hunt into right guard, where he’ll get more help in pass protection and have Sewell at right tackle. Overall, Sewell has a chance to be one of the best tackles in the game.
The Falcons will have a new General Manager and Head Coach, meaning this pick could go one of two ways. 1. The pick is safe and high ceiling (maybe a defender), which would allow the Falcons to improve right away. 2. Or the pick is geared for the future in finding replacements for Matt Ryan. Wilson is worthy of the first overall pick if Lawrence and Fields weren’t in this draft class. He’s got mobility, arm talent, and a great ability to read the field. You can read our scouting report on Wilson here.
5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The objective of the Bengals offseason has to be increasing the support for Joe Burrow. So through free agency, they can pick up a guard (Andrew Wylie), and finding more defensive pieces. Overall, this pick puts the Bengals in an extremely difficult position as there is no other tackle worth a top ten pick unless you take Christian Darrisaw. However, Ja’Marr Chase is in a different category of playmakers and instantly increases the firepower of this offense. To put it in perspective, Chase was better than Justin Jefferson on the field and statistically. He isn’t the same profile of receiver but has a similar upside – a dynamic receiver capable of taking an offense to the next level. You can read our scouting report on Chase here.
6. Philadelphia Eagles – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
It is evident from past drafts that Howie Roseman does not value linebackers similar to other teams even though the team needs to get better at that position. With that said, the cornerback class has some talent at the top, in Caleb Farley and Patrick Surtain. Farley’s profile might align better for the Eagles than Surtain, but with Jim Schwartz not coaching the defense in 2021 they could look for a different profile. All in all, Farley’s traits and athleticism give him a higher ceiling than Surtain.
This is also a concerning position for the Lions as the cap situation is not good. They do not have the capital to re-sign Kenny Golladay, yet their defense struggled all year. Similar to the Falcons they could opt to pick the next quarterback of the future if they want, but the drop-off from Wilson to Trey Lance/others is significant. Thus, the team goes with a dynamic player in Parsons. Parsons is a run and chase linebacker who is the next breed of speed linebackers who can cover and get sideline to sideline quickly. Ideally, he’s still getting better at play recognition and would benefit from a year of playing at outside linebacker – run and chase and then move to middle linebacker.
Parsons was the best fit for Carolina as no other linebacker has the ceiling he does. As well, there is no quarterback worth picking here. Pitts is the best remaining player and the last of the top-tiered players. He is the kind of tight end that changes an offense, as he’ll draw double teams, mismatches, and make ridiculous plays.
The Broncos desperately need help at corner and Surtain is best available. He’s a sure tackler and is someone who could be very successful in a scheme with good safety play. Overall, Surtain is the ideal corner, with great length, technique, and physicality. However, he lacks deep speed and may give up big plays at an inopportune time.
10. Dallas Cowboys – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The Cowboys’ biggest need is corner help to pair with Trevon Diggs. Horn is a nice fit in the Cowboys defense, as he can lock up and play press. The only thing he lacks is being a threat to generate turnovers, which is something the Cowboys typically look for in their cornerbacks.
Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, and Sterling Shepard are not enough to help Daniel Jones make the jump to a franchise quarterback, the team must give him more weapons. Enter Bateman, a clone of Allen Robinson who excels in all levels of the field. He’s a chain mover and has a legitimate chance to be the best wide receiver on the team by the end of the season. Bateman is the pick over Davonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle for his profile. He’s a larger target and one of the best contested-catch receivers in the class. You can read our scouting report on Bateman here.
12. San Francisco 49ers – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota
Lance is a very raw prospect who needs multiple years before he’s ready to take over. However, his pocket mobility, rushing threat, and his ability to make specular plays is something Kyle Shanahan can make into a franchise quarterback. Lance fits the mold for the Niners’ scheme, as he’s comfortable throwing the ball on the move and capable of extending plays.
Darrisaw has put up quality performances all year, to the point where he should be considered in the top 20. Darrisaw has the agility and mobility to become a franchise tackle. As well, his pass blocking technique is notability advanced and should allow him to take on edge defenders one on one.
Vikings were really good on paper at edge rusher at the beginning of the season. Yet the departure of Yannick Ngakoue and injury to Danielle Hunter severely hampered the defense and its ability to get to the passer. While the offensive line might be considered a greater priority, Kwity Paye could allow the Minnesota defense to return to its elite form. Paye’s ascension this year was significant as he showed multiple pass-rushing moves, the ability to bend the end and flatten, rush with power, and use his hands, all of which makes him a candidate to be the first edge off the board.
15. New England Patriots – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Patriots need any sort of weapon, anybody that can catch a football. Smith is a very reliable receiver – showing great form and concentration while catching the ball. Yet, he gets his value from his ability to separate, manipulate defenders, and his nuanced route-running ability is top-notch in this year’s draft.
Etienne might be the only running back worth a top 40 selection, largely due to the home run threat ability and pass-catching ability. With his speed and contact balance, nobody is better suited for this offense. This is mainly because the offense is predicated on side-to-side movement with lots of run-pass-options – thus allowing more home-run opportunities from the bigger holes.
17. Las Vegas Raiders – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Slater has positional value, making him a great fit for the Raiders who always have injuries on the line as well as underperforming pieces. On the interior, Denzelle Good has been an average guard and Richie Incognito is 37, where Trent Brown needs a solid back up due to the injuries. You can read our scouting report on Slater here.
Dolphins get a receiver that has a rapport with Tua Tagovailoa. Waddle is going to dominate at the combine with his speed and quickness. What sets him apart is his run after catch ability and short-area quickness. He consistently makes defenders miss and should command a large target share in this offense.
19. Washington Football Team – Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
Arguably, Cosmi is the offensive tackle with the highest upside (aside from Sewell), largely due to his mobility skills. Cosmi could be the next franchise tackle for the team.
With Allen Robinson hitting free agency and few tackles remaining worth a first-round pick, the Bears go with Marshall. Marshall’s floor is a speed guy similar to Darnell Mooney, however, his ceiling is a dominant receiver for any team. His size, speed, and ability make him similar to D.J. Chark.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams) – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Multiple options here for the Jaguars, they could go with tackle, but it is a tier below. Yet, the run of three receivers in the last five picks forces them to get the last receiver worth a first-round pick. His ability to separate, run nuanced routes, and be a reliable pass-catcher will drive him to be a first-round pick. Additionally, getting a third good receiver will allow the passing offense to support Lawrence.
Colts love to have guys who can play multiple positions on the defensive line. Rousseau has versatility and gets pressure from all positions on the line. He’s typically seen going before the 20s, however, he’s very raw and not NFL ready at all. It might take a year or two before we see him get consistent pressure.
This pick isn’t new, but it is by far the biggest need the Browns have. The Browns are still missing the dynamic linebacker who can get side to side. Owusu-Koramoah has been a huge riser throughout the draft process and can improve this defense significantly. You can read our scouting report on Owusu-Koramoah here.
Tennessee needs to generate more pressure from the edge and Ojulari fits the profile for them. He’s a 3-4 pass rusher who can rush from a two-point stance and with his hand in the dirt. The most impressive thing is his ability to rush with a plan and utilize his wide array of pass-rushing moves. You can read our scouting report on Ojulari here.
The Buccaneers need another defensive tackle as Ndamukong Suh will most likely be departing in free agency. This is a project pick, as Barmore has shown flashes, but just needs to put it all together. Vita Vea and Barmore would make an unstoppable pairing and would provide more opportunities to the edge rushers by generating interior pressure.
Ossai fits the Matt Judon mold of someone who can set the edge on runs, and also who bolsters pass rush potential. Ossai has significant upside and has the chance to be a dominant force on this defensive line with his strength and bevy of pass-rushing moves.
27. New York Jets (Seattle Seahawks) – Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
Ideally, there is a receiver here that could pair with Denzel Mims and provide Justin Fields another option. Yet with the run on receivers, it isn’t worth it to go to the next tier when there is still a premier tight end available. Freiermuth’s draft stock may suffer due to the poor performance of the team, yet he’s excellent in all aspects of the position. He’s an excellent blocker, has great body control and catching ability, but he also has great run after catch ability, making him a weapon for the offense.
Vera-Tucker has positional versatility, where he could easily slot into left tackle or guard. The Steelers need to have more depth and a player with the potential to slot in almost anywhere.
Marshon Lattimore is set to depart in free agency after the 2021 season, and the Saints salary cap is currently among the worst in the league. Additionally, the team has to get better across from Lattimore for this season and improve the 32-year-old Janoris Jenkins spot. Campbell is raw compared to his teammate Eric Stokes but has more upside.
Smith is a people mover and would fit nicely on the right side to pair with Cody Ford. He has a high ceiling, as we’ve seen extremely dominant play from him, but injuries have plagued his college career.
Bolton makes sense over Zaven Collins for a few reasons, better in pass coverage and more instinctive. Arguably he’s going to be better in zone coverage, however, he might not be as good as Colins rushing the passer. Overall, Bolton is a well-rounded player who has the potential to be a star of a defense. He’s also an explosive athlete who is a sure tackler.
Colins could end up being the best linebacker in the class with his tools and athleticism. He has work to do in coverage though, as this is his biggest barrier to him becoming an elite linebacker.
Round 2
33. Jacksonville Jaguars – Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
Jaguars need someone who can hold their own against bigger receivers. Stokes isn’t a great scheme fit, but the Jaguars desperately need to get better at the cornerback spot. 34. New York Jets –Alex Leatherwood, OT/G, Alabama Leatherwood fits in nicely here, he can play guard or tackle in year one and make the full-time transition to right tackle in year two. 35. Atlanta Falcons –Jayson Oweh, EDGE Penn State Marlon Davidson was a difficult scheme fit for the team last year, moreover, Dante Fowler has not had success. While the ideal pick would be finding a successor to Julio Jones, there is a lack of receivers here. Oweh is all upside at this point but could be dominant if he develops some consistency. 36. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans) –Carlos Basham Jr.EDGE, Wake Forest Basham is a decent scheme fit, he’s strong enough to rush from the interior, and can play wide nine or seven tech with his quickness. He would go a long way to make this one of the most dominant fronts in the NFL. 37. Philadelphia Eagles –Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami Jordan is a freakish athlete for his size. With Ertz likely headed to free agency, the Eagles need a replacement, as they run lots of two tight end sets. Jordan isn’t going to be a high volume catch guy like Ertz, but he can make explosive plays and has high upside. 38. Cincinnati Bengals –Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan It worked out for the Bengals who risked not going offensive tackle in the first round. They are able to get Mayfield who will slide in nicely at right tackle. Mayfield is inconsistent, but with NFL experience and coaching could be a solid right tackle. 39. Carolina Panthers –Mac Jones, QB, Alabama The Panthers are the right team to take on Desmond Ridder, however, he has officially opted to return to school. The next best option is going with Jones who can compete with Teddy Bridgewater for the starting spot. Jones has played extremely well, showing he can extend plays and be accurate. His best trait is his intelligence and ability to go through his progression, a good skill with this receiving core. 40. Denver Broncos –Myjai Sanders, EDGE, Cincinnati Sanders has a lot of upside and would stand to learn a great deal from Von Miller. This pick is made with the belief that Miller is back, as Sanders needs to develop his run defending and polish his pass-rushing skill set before he becomes a full-time starter. 41. Detroit Lions –Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue Moore has the highest upside remaining in this crop of receivers. He’s an explosive player with significant run after catch skills. However, his route running is unpolished and overall he will require some development before reaching his high ceiling. You can read our scouting report on Moore here. 42. New York Giants –Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma Tough pick as an edge rusher is the top need for the Giants, but there aren’t any that fit the scheme. The best remaining player is Humphrey who could significantly improve the interior offensive line. Humphrey is the top center in this draft and is a well-rounded player. 43. San Francisco 49ers –Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford Adebo could be the successor to Sherman with his good ball skills and strong zone coverage skills. Niners have needs on the offensive line, but the remaining tackles lack mobility and athleticism to fit the Shannahan scheme. 44. Dallas Cowboys – Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State Radunz wouldn’t need to start right away and can develop behind the current offensive line. Cowboys need to start thinking long term successor to Tyron Smith. Radunz has the potential to be great. The level of competition has been the only concern. 45. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Minnesota Vikings) –Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse Cisco goes over Trevon Moehrig-Woodard due to the ball skills. Cisco also has more range on tape. If Cisco didn’t suffer a season-ending lower leg injury he would be a fringe first-rounder. Moreover, Cisco stock will be dependent on the combine and how healthy he is. 46. New England Patriots –Kyle Trask, QB, Florida The Patriots need to have a replacement for Cam Newton if he can’t play better. Trask had a great year till his final game. The consensus is wide on what Trask will be in the NFL. However, he is worth taking the shot on in the second round. You can read our scouting report on Trask here. 47. Los Angeles Chargers –Wyatt Davis, IOL, Ohio State Davis falls due to somewhat of a disappointing season, as some analysts (including me) hyped him up to be a top 20 player. He has a chance to improve his stock during the National Championship. 48. Las Vegas Raiders –Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State The irony here is that the Raiders took Damon Arnette in the first round last year, and he has played incredibly poorly. Wade could be the replacement. 49. Arizona Cardinals –Asante SamuelJr. CB, Florida State The Cardinals need to retool the secondary and think about life after Patrick Peterson who may depart in free agency. 50. Miami Dolphins –Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina Surratt has range and can get side to side quickly. He would pair nicely with Jerome Baker. 51. Washington Football Team –Hunter Long, TE, Boston College Washington needs to find someone to play quarterback however, with Ridder going back to school, Washington will look to free agency or trade. The pick is then looking for a weapon and Long fits the bill. Long has been overshadowed by the top three tight ends but has played extremely well. Pairing him with Logan Thomaswould give the team two versatile tight ends. 52. Chicago Bears –Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame No quarterbacks left leaves the Bears going offensive line. Bears have the option to cut Charles Leno and save 6 Million, thus they will likely need to address the line. Eichenberg is pro-ready, however, there are some athleticism concerns that could limit his ceiling. 53. Los Angeles Rams –Hamilcar Rashed Jr., EDGE, Oregon State Rashed could be a great pass rusher if he develops properly. He’s got the tools to be good but is inconsistent. 54. Cleveland Browns –Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami Philips has lots of concerns – injury mainly. However, his play on the field is undeniable and he has a lot of upside if he can stay healthy. 55. Tennessee Titans –Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa Nixon is a late riser in the draft process, but his pass-rushing upside is undeniable. He rushes with a plan and can win with quickness. 56. Indianapolis Colts –Brady Christensen, OT, BYU Anthony Castonzo has been injured more often than not. Christensen has played very well this year and can be a good pass blocker going forward. 57. Baltimore Ravens –Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC St. Brown is a separator and can be the chain mover the Ravens are missing. You can read our scouting report on St. Brown here. 58. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida Chris Godwin and Shaquil Barrett are both free agents. The team will likely have to choose between them. The depth at wide receiver makes sense to go with Barrett as Godwin will cost a fortune. Toney is a raw technician, but has the athleticism and run after the catch ability. You can read our scouting report on Toney here. 59. New York Jets (Via Pittsburgh Steelers) –Josh Myers, IOL/C, Ohio State The Jets tradeSam Darnoldto the Steelers for the 59th overall pick. This is a win-win for both teams as the Steelers get to see if Darnold can be the future, while the Jets accumulate more picks. While the Jets get Leatherwood at the beginning of the round, they could use a left guard. Myers is a well-rounded player and could be just what the Jets need to protect Fields. 60. Seattle Seahawks –Jay Tufele, IDL, Southern California Tufele is a high energy player who would fit nicely in this defensive front. 61. New Orleans Saints –Dazz Newsome, WR, North Carolina Newsome is a good route runner and can replace Emmanuel Sanders after the 2021 season. 62. Buffalo Bills –Derion Kendrick, CB, Clemson Kendrick has shown high-level play but against lesser competition. 63. Green Bay Packers –Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson Rodgers doesn’t get enough credit for his route running and separating ability. He’s crafty and is also dynamic after the catch. 64. Kansas City Chiefs –Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State FAST
Here is the much awaited 3.0 Mock! Though some QB movement is inevitable, I didn't mock and player trades, just draft capital trades. My analysis for each team is at the bottom. Round 1 1.01) Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson 1.02) Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU 1.03) Dolphins - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU 1.04) Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State 1.05) Bengals - Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon 1.06) Eagles - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama 1.07) 49ers (Trade with Lions)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second 1.08) Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern 1.09) Broncos - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech 1.10) Cowboys - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan 1.11) Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama 1.12) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second 1.13) Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida 1.14) Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC 1.15) Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State 1.16) Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina 1.17) Raiders - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami 1.18) Dolphins - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame 1.19) Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama 1.20) Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech 1.21) Colts - Samuel Cosmi, OL, Texas 1.22) Titans - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami 1.23) Jets - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia 1.24) Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OL, Notre Dame 1.25) Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama 1.26) Browns - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa 1.27) Ravens - Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma 1.28) Chargers (Trade with Saints) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28 1.29) Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia 1.30) Bills - Jalen Mayfield, OL, Michigan 1.31) Chiefs - Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State 1.32) Buccaneers - Joesph Ossai, DE, Texas Round 2 2.33) Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU 2.34) Jets - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama 2.35) Falcons - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama 2.36) Dolphins - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson 2.37) Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota 2.38) Bengals - Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest 2.39) Panthers - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri 2.40) Broncos - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa 2.41) Lions - Jay Tufele, DT, USC 2.42) Giants - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State 2.43) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second 2.44) Cowboys - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern 2.45) Jaguars - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State 2.46) Patriots - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue 2.47) Saints - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28 2.48) Raiders - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon 2.49) Cardinals - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida 2.50) Dolphins - Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama 2.51) Washington - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU 2.52) Bears - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC 2.53) Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss 2.54) Colts - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida 2.55) Steelers - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pitt 2.56) Seahawks - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee 2.57) Rams - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC 2.58) Ravens - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington 2.59) Browns - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State 2.60) Saints - Richie Grant, S, UCF 2.61) Packers - Alim Mcneill, DT, NC State 2.62) Bills - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State 2.63) Chiefs - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami 2.64) Buccaneers - Dillion Radunz, OL, NDSU AFC Baltimore Ravens 1.27) Ravens - Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma 2.58) Ravens - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington The Ravens have multiple needs this season, but none are as important as DE and Center. Center Matt Skura is still recovering from a significant knee injury where he tore his ACL, MCL and PCL in late November along with a disclosated kneecap and his future is unknown. While the franchise-tagged Matthew Judon registered 9.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits — both team high, Jaylon Ferguson, a rookie, only finished with with 2.5 sacks and nine quarterback hits. Cincinnati Bengals 1.05) Bengals - Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon 2.38) Bengals - Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest The most important thing in Cincinnati this season is one thing and one thing alone, collect as many assets to protect and assist Joe Burrow this offseason. To make matters worse, Carl Lawson, AJ Green, and John Ross are free agents and most likely to be somewhere else in 2021. Cincinnati posted the second least sacks in 2020 and desperately needs to add playmakers on the edge. Cleveland Browns 1.26 CLE - Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa 2.59) Browns - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State On defense, all three levels need to get better. But at the very least, Myles Garrett is locked in long-term as focal point of the defense and Denzel Ward seem likely to join him when he’s extended. I see the browns hammering the defensive side of the ball in the draft this year with a WR in the mix in the later rounds. Pittsburgh Steelers 1.24) Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OL, Notre Dame 2.55) Steelers - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pitt With the retirement of Pouncey looming along with free agency of Villanueva, Steelers desperately need to find cheap options on the OL. Eichenburg provides and elite, cheap fill and can be a franchise player. The question mark for RB is also a big one. Do they resign Connor, find another option like Kenyan Drake, Jerrick Mckinnon, or Chris Carson or draft one. Buffalo Bills 1.30) Bills - Jalen Mayfield, OL, Michigan 2.62) Bills - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State The Bills are a complete team that doesn’t have many sports for an instant starter. However, they will need to get better in the trenches if they want to compete with the likes of Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Mayfield only played 1 season at Michigan, but the need on the right side of the line in evident. Look for the Bills to also look at DE, LB, CB, or even trade down to a team trying to grab a late first rounder. Miami Dolphins 1.03) Dolphins - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU 1.18) Dolphins - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame 2.36) Dolphins - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson 2.50) Dolphins - Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama In Tua year two, the Dolphins need to fill out their roster if they want to compete with the Bills. There are multiple needs Miami has, but filling out their OL and giving Tua elite options are the priority. New England Patriots 1.15) Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State 2.46) Patriots - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue Offense, Offense, Offense. Patriots need to hammer a rebuild on the offensive side of the draft if they even want to dream about the playoffs again. The Bills and Dolphins are a major threat in the AFC and Newton at QB wasn’t a longterm fix. Moore provides Belichick with an elite pass catcher who can line up all over the field. New York Jets 1.02) Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU 1.23) Jets - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia 2.34) Jets - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama If the Jets want to compete next year, they need to address almost every position. Drafting basically BPA at every spot this year, they select a QB replacement, a long athletic edge, and some more depth in the OL. Houston Texans #fireeasterby Indianapolis Colts 1.21) Colts - Samuel Cosmi, OL, Texas 2.54) Colts - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida Indianapolis has an elite defense and if they can fix the holes on offense they will be a threat in the AFC for years to come. With the retirements of Phillip Rivers and Anthony Constanzo, LT and QB becoming immediate early draft picks or free agent acquisitions and I believe drafting Trask and Sam Cosmi will be good replacements. Jacksonville Jaguars 1.01) Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson 1.25) Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama 2.33) Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU 2.45) Jaguars - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently in the process of completing their regime change under new head coach Urban Meyer. Once that happens, it will be all about making improvements to the roster this offseason. With Lawrence as a lock, Urban Meyer has to surround his franchise QB with a roster that’ll be competitive. Tennessee Titans 1.22) Titans - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami 2.53) Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss By far, Tennessee’s biggest problem right now is a lack of consistent pass rush, which should have them targeting an edge defender early in this draft. Jaelen Philips fills the need and provides a high-upside EDGE to assist whatever they bring in in free agency. Denver Broncos 1.09) Broncos - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech 2.40) Broncos - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa With the 9th pick, the Broncos should be targeting one of the several talented cornerbacks in this 2021 NFL Draft class. The Broncos brought in former Pro Bowler A.J. Bouye via trade with the Jaguars and he has been on and off the field due to injuries this season. I think Farley is incredibly talented and he fills a need for Vic Fangio's defense. Defensive line can’t be ignored as a potential concern. They have five free agents-to-be up front, including Shelby Harris, Jurrell Casey and DeMarcus Walker. Not all of them will come back, we suspect. Even with Dre’Mont Jones, DeShawn Williams, McTelvin Agim and maybe Mike Purcell, some depth and insurance would be nice. Kansas City Chiefs 1.31) Chiefs - Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State 2.63) Chiefs - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami One thing the Chiefs will need in 2021 is help at the edge rusher position. Right now, Frank Clark and Mike Danna are the only two players currently under contract. They’ll need to find a few more in the draft and undrafted free agency if they don’t re-sign any of their pending free agents. Las Vegas Raiders 1.17) Raiders - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami 2.48) Raiders - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon When it comes to the draft, the Raiders still have plenty of holes to fill, particularly when it comes to the team’s defensive side. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have spent plenty of picks on the defense but have yet to draft a player who looks like he can be All-Pro, or even pro bowl material on defense. Los Angeles Chargers 1.13) Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida 1.28) Chargers (Trade with Saints) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28 Now, the Chargers going after Pitts is a decision that has to be made after they figure out what they’re going to do with Hunter Henry. Henry is currently playing on the franchise tag for an AAV of $10.6 million. Before both Travis Kelce and George Kittle signed their huge extensions, Henry was the highest paid tight end based on AAV. The Chargers are looking a having to chose between Henry and defensive end Melvin Ingram to bring back. A cheaper, possibly better option at tight end could be for the taking in the first round of the NFL Draft in Kyle Pitts. NFC Chicago Bears 1.20) Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech 2.52) Bears - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC Matt Nagy desperately needs to overhaul their offense if they want to compete with the Packers in the upcoming years. To start, I believe the biggest needs the Bears must address this offseason is the offensive line and Receiver. If the Bears want to find an adequate replacement for the expected departure of Allen Robinson, they’ll have to strongly consider using their first pick, however in this mock draft I have them assessing OT first. Detroit Lions 1.12) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second 2.41) Lions - Jay Tufele, DT, USC 2.43) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia With the departure of Stafford announced, Lions have a new QB coming to town. Over the next few weeks, the debate will be had regarding whether or not Detroit should trade down, especially since the team only possesses five total picks this year. Dan Campbell is in year 1, and as long as Rodgers is in GB, odds are they will not make the playoffs. Lions have many holes and the logical thing to do is to trade down and gather as much draft capital as possible. Look for WFT, NE, MIA, or IND as other potential trade partners. The trade I mocked was the exact same as the Buf-Tampa trade that resulted in Josh Allen in Buffalo. Yes, you don’t need to trade 3 firsts to move up in the first round. Green Bay Packers 1.29) Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia 2.61) Packers - Alim Mcneill, DT, NC State Like the other 3 teams that made the Championship Weekend, the Packers have minimal needs. Kevin King was exposed versus the Bucs and I wouldn’t be surprised if they draft a CB with the first round pick. If the Packers can add another monster upfront, it would help them in so many areas. For starters, it would make life easier on their inside linebackers and open up more gaps for the backer to fill in the running game. A player who can get after the quarterback by pushing the pocket would also alleviate some stress on the secondary and free up blockers for the Packers’ edge rushers. Minnesota Vikings 1.14) Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC With the 14th pick, the Vikings can go many routes, address the OL, draft an edge rusher, or fix the back end of the defense. With Spielman as GM, it is very unlikely that the Vikings will never draft an EDGE rusher in the first round. At 6-4, 315 pounds, he could play either position at the next level. The Vikings must solidify their offensive line around Kirk Cousins, even after spending second-round picks on Ezra Cleveland (2020) and Brian O'Neill (2018) in recent years, and Vera-Tucker could be the long-term answer on the left side of the line. Cousins plays best when his running game is humming, and Vera-Tucker is a great run-blocker. Dallas Cowboys 1.10) Cowboys - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan 2.44) Cowboys - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern Going into the 2021 draft, the Cowboys have multiple holes they need to address. To start they desperately need to address their secondary. With Slater, Sewell, Surtain, and Farley all gone, this is the worst possible scenario for the boys. Aldon Smith has played well for the Cowboys this season and may have set himself up for a nice payday over the offseason. With Dallas in a less than ideal cap situation, they may choose to let Smith walk and try to replace him in the draft. In this scenario, Paye would make a ton of sense for the team if they end up picking towards the end of the top 10. New York Giants 1.11) Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama 2.42) Giants - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State I think that the Giants are an ascending football team, but they need to be more explosive offensively. Waddle e might be the number one WR in the Class and has the size and speed to be the main target for Daniel Jones. One of the more bizarre stats to come out of the 2020 regular season was that the Giants’ top four pressure marks all came from interior defensive linemen. Leonard Williams (62 pressures), Dexter Lawrence (29), Dalvin Tomlinson (28) and B.J. Hill (22) all produced more quarterback pressures than New York’s top mark from an edge defender — Kyler Fackrell with just 19. By drafting an EDGE in the second round, they bring in a dire need. Philadelphia Eagles 1.06) Eagles - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama 2.37) Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota The Eagles have massive holes to fill and might have multiple key players from their SB team leaving this offseason. There’s no question that the Eagles need help at cornerback. They came into this season with Darius Slay as their top corner and even though he hasn’t been elite, he’s been the best CB1 they’ve had since Asante Samuel. The problem is that they lined up Avonte Maddox on the other side and Maddox just simply isn’t a good enough starting outside corner. The Eagles have struggled to draft cornerbacks — think back to Sidney Jones and Rasul Douglas in 2017 — so it’s scary to think about them getting this wrong. But Surtain has an NFL pedigree and at 6-1, isn’t the type of undersized corner we’ve seen the Eagles trot out there during the Jim Schwartz era. Surtain is a true first-round pick and one of the best corners in this draft. Washington Football Team 1.19) Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama 2.51) Washington - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU It's no surprise that the Football Team needs a QB, but they most likely need to give up an unbelievable amount of draft capitol if they want a taste at the top 4 QBs in the draft. With the abundance of QB’s in the market this offseason, it won’t be a surprise if they make a run at Matt Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jimmy G, or Matt Ryan if they become available. Washington could bring in one of the elite Receivers in Free Agency, but Marshall at 51 is hard to pass up. Atlanta Falcons 1.04) Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State 2.35) Falcons - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama Atlanta comes into the 2021 Draft in a unique position. They have plenty of talent, but a team full of aging superstars and an abysmal defense brought them to the number 4 pick. Most likely the top 6 will be Lawrence, Sewell and a run on QBs and WRs bringing the Falcons in a unique position. If they decide to draft a QB, they are in perfect position to pick one but I believe they can do many things. With Matt Ryan on the backend of his career and Julio Jones turning 33, ATL will need to do turn the page soon to be relevant again. Carolina Panthers 1.08) Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern 2.39) Panthers - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri If Trey Lance falls to 8, Carolina would be happy to pick Lance with the eighth pick. Drafting a quarterback is almost a certainty at this point but if the Panthers take the "aggressive" approach that new general manager Scott Fitterer has talked about, they will likely trade up for either BYU's Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields. Instead of a QB, they take Slater. Tackle in particular is a priority with the Panthers likely to move on from left tackle Russell Okung 32, and right tackle Taylor Moton likely to draw interest in free agency that could make him too costly. The Carolina Panthers are going to need a long-term solution to their middle linebacker spot sooner rather than later and Nick Bolton fills the void left by Luke Kuechly. Nick Bolton is a physical hitter who has the right sort of speed to become a sideline-to-sideline force at the next level. New Orleans Saints 2.47) Saints - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington *Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28* 2.60) Saints - Richie Grant, S, UCF The Saints have many decisions this offseason regarding their elite defensive that puts them in a tough spot. It’s currently uncertain what the New Orleans secondary will look like next season as Janoris Jenkins, PJ Williams, Justin Hardee, and Ken Crawley are all set to be free agents, and adding a top tier talent like Onwuzurike and Grant could help the team for years. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.32) Buccaneers - Joesph Ossai, DE, Texas 2.64) Buccaneers - Dillion Radunz, OL, NDSU With it a possibility that Shaq Barrett opts to leave in free agency, the Buccaneers could find themselves looking for a quarterback hunter. Ossai could fit right in with what they like to do on defense and create havoc for that defense. Should he slide to No. 25, Ossai should be ripe for the picking by the Tampa Bay front office. LT Donovan Smith has been reliable in terms of his durability and availability, but his performance over the last five years has been inconsistent at best. He’s also scheduled to make more than $14 million next season, though none of that money is guaranteed. That means the Bucs could move on from him without any dead money, and considering how tight the team in terms of salary cap space, they could save a ton of money with a younger, cheaper option like Radunz. Arizona Cardinals 1.16) Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina 2.49) Cardinals - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida With the gaping void left in the Arizona Cardinals secondary following the inevitable loss of franchise-cornerback Patrick Peterson, the 2021 NFL Draft offers an opportunity for Arizona to directly replace their isolation-corner with a prospect built in a similar mold. All-Pro safety Budda Baker looks to be one of the few returning members of the Arizona secondary and is in need of a complimenting talent on the opposite side of the hashes. Los Angeles Rams 2.57) Rams - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC Going into the 2021 offseason, the Rams have quite a few question marks among the OL. Whitworth is old and the rest of the OL might be gone this offseason. They violently need to address the OL in the draft and this offseason. The Rams may have their most questions right now at the linebacker position and several key names could be gone by next year. Cory Littleton and Dante Fowler were lost this offseason, Samsom Ebukam will be a free agent next year, and Leonard Floyd was only signed to a one-year contract. Chazz Surratt is a must for the elite Rams D and provides Sean Mcvay with an athletic playmaker. San Francisco 49ers 1.07) 49ers (Trade with Lions)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State *Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second* San Francisco has an important offseason in front of them if they want to continue being atop the NFC West. Injuries battered the 49ers this year and it was a disappointing season all around. The 49ers are in salary cap hell next season and needs to do something if they want to resign Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Soloman Thomas, and Jason Verrett among others. Seattle Seahawks 2.56) Seahawks - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee Russell Wilson did not look comfortable at quarterback as his ecosystem became increasingly fragile this season. The success of the #LetRussCook movement, more or less, died as protection slowly got worse and worse. In the Wild Card game, Seattle's offensive line struggled mightily, allowing its worst pressure rate of the year - a 67 percent clip on all dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
Hi, I've decided to steal u/NH-INDY-99's format for a 3-round mock draft. Though a Watson and Stafford trade are inevitable I decided against mocking it. **Round One** 1.01 JAX **Trevor Lawrence (QB) - Clemson** 1.02 NYJ ** Penei Sewell (OT) - Oregon** 1.03 MIA (via HOU) **Devonta Smith (WR) - Alabama* 1.04 DET **Justin Fields (QB) - Ohio State (TRADE)** *Atl trades to 1.04 to DET for 1.07, 3.72, 2022 Third* 1.05 SF **Zach Wilson (QB)- BYU (TRADE)** *SF trade 1.12, 2.43, 4.114, 2022 First, 2022 third to CIN for 1.05* 1.06 PHI **Micah Parsons (LB) - Penn State** 1.07 ATL **Kwity Paye (DE) -Michigan ** (TRADE) *Atl trades to 1.04 to DET for 1.07, 3.72, 2022 fifth* 1.08 CAR **Trey Lance (QB) - NDSU** 1.09 DEN **Caleb Farley (CB) - Virginia Tech** 1.10 DAL **Patrick Surtain II (CB) - Alabama** 1.11 NYG **Ja’marr Chase (WR)- LSU** 1.12 CIN ** Rashawn Slater (OT) - Northwestern** (TRADE) *SF trade 1.12, 2.43, 4.114, 2022 First, 2022 third to CIN for 1.12* 1.13 LAC ** Christian Darrisaw(OT) - Virginia Tech** 1.14 MIN **Jaycee Horn (CB) - South Carolina** 1.15 NE **Kyle Pitts (TE) - Florida** 1.16 ARI **Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL) - USC** 1.17 LV **Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) - Norte Dame** 1.18 MIA **Sam Cosmi (OT) - Texas** 1.19 WSH **Jaylen Waddle (WR) - Alabama** 1.20 CHI **Alex Leatherwood (OT) - Alabama** 1.21 IND **Mac Jones (QB) -Alabama** 1.22 TEN **Greg Rousseau (DE) - Miami(FL)** 1.23 NYJ (via SEA) **Eric Stokes (CB) - Georgia** 1.24 PIT **Liam Eichenberg (OT) - Norte Dame** 1.25 JAX (via LAR) **Jaelan Phillips (DE) - Miami (FL)** 1.26 CLE **Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa** 1.27 BAL **Patrick Jones II (DE) - Pitt** 1.28 NO **Tyson Campbell (CB) - Georgia** 1.29 GB **Daviyon Nixon (DT) - Iowa** 1.30 BUF **Wyatt Davis (OL) - Ohio State** 1.31 TB **Christian Barmore (DT) - Alabama** 1.32 KC **Azeez Ojulari (DE) - Georgia** **Round Two** 2.33 JAX **Jalen Mayfield (OT) - Michigan** 2.34 NYJ **Najee Harris (RB) - Alabama** 2.35 ATL **Aaron Robinson (CB) - UCF** 2.36 MIA (via HOU) **Joseph Ossai (DE/LB) - Texas** 2.37 PHI **Rashod Bateman (WR) - Minnesota** 2.38 CIN **Jayson Oweh (DE) - Penn State** 2.39 CAR **Nick Bolton (LB) - Missouri** 2.40 DEN **Carlos Basham Jr (DE) - Wake Forest** 2.41 DET **Jay Tufele (DT) - USC** 2.42 NYG **Quincy Roche (DE) - Miami ** 2.43 CIN **Deonte Brown (OG) - Alabama** (TRADE) *SF trade 1.12, 2.43, 4.114, 2022 First, 2022 third to CIN for 1.12* 2.44 DAL **Trevon Moehrig(S) - TCU** 2.45 JAX (via MIN) **Pat Freiermuth (TE) - Penn State ** 2.46 NE **Kyle Trask (QB) - Florida ** 2.47 LAC **Landon Dickerson (IOL) - Alabama** 2.48 LV **Levi Onwuzurike (DT) Washington** 2.49 ARI **Rondale Moore (WR) - Purdue** 2.50 MIA **Travis Etienne (RB) - Clemson** 2.51 WSH **Walker Little (OT) - Stanford** 2.52 CHI **Terrace Marshal (WR) - LSU** 2.53 TEN **Kadarius Toney (WR) - Florida** 2.54 IND **Teven Jenkins (OT) - Oklahoma State** 2.55 PIT **Josh Myers (C) - Ohio State** 2.56 SEA **Shaun Wade (CB) - Ohio State** 2.57 LAR **Trey Smith (OL) - Tennessee** 2.58 BAL **Creed Humphrey (C) - Oklahoma ** 2.59 CLE **Joe Tryon (DE) - Washington** 2.60 NO **Jevon Holland (S) - Oregon** 2.61 GB **Asante Samuel Jr. (CB) - Florida State** 2.62 BUF **Greg Newsome II (CB) - Northwestern** 2.63 TB **Trey Sermon (RB) - Ohio State** 2.64 KC **Ben Cleveland (OG) - Georgia **Round Three** 3.65 JAX **Bubba Bolden (S) - Miami** 3.66 NYJ **Nico Collins (WR) - Michigan** 3.67 HOU **Hamilar Rashed (DE) -Oregon State** 3.68 ATL **Dylan Moses (LB) - Alabama** 3.69 CIN **Seth Williams (WR) - Auburn** 3.70 PHI **Paulson Adebo (CB) -Stanford** 3.71 DEN **Jabril Cox (LB) - LSU** 3.72 ATL **Kenneth Gainwell (RB) - Memphis** (Trade) 3.73 CAR **Dillon Radunz (OT) North Dakota State** 3.74 WSH (via SF) **Andre Cisco (S) - Syracuse** 3.75 DAL **Chazz Surratt (LB) - North Carolina** 3.76 NYG **Jackson Carmen (OT) - Clemson** 3.77 NE ---**FORFEITED**\--- 3.78 LAC **Rodarius Williams (CB) - OK State) 3.79 MIN **Marvin Wilson (DT) - Florida State** 3.80 ARI **Elijah Molden (CB) - Washington** 3.81 LV **Aaron Banks (OG) - Notre Dame** 3.82 MIA **Drake Jackson (IOL) - Kentucky** 3.83 WSH **Cameron Mcgrone (LB) - Michigan** 3.84 CHI **Hamsah Nasirildeen(S) - Florida State** 3.85 IND **Tylan Wallace (WR) - Ok State** 3.86 TEN **Darius Stills (DT) - West Virginia** 3.87 NYJ (via SEA) **Chris Rumph II (DE) - Duke** 3.88 PIT **Javonte Williams (RB) - North Carolina ** 3.89 LAR *Baron Browning (LB) - Ohio State** 3.90 CLE **Paris Ford (S) - Pittsburgh** 3.91 MIN (via BAL) **Rashad Weaver (DE) - Pitt** 3.92 CLE (via NO) **Alim Mcniel (DT) - NC State** 3.93 GB **Elijah Moore (WR) - Ole Miss** 3.94 BUF **Brevin Jordan (TE) - Miami** 3.95 TB **Jamie Newman (QB) - Georgia Tech** 3.96 KC ** Tutu Atwell (WR) - Louisville** **AFC** **Baltimore Ravens** 1.27 BAL - Patrick Jones II (DE) - Pitt 2.58 BAL - Creed Humphrey (C) - Oklahoma The Ravens have multiple needs this season, but none are as important as DE and Center. Center Matt Skura is still recovering from a significant knee injury where he tore his ACL, MCL and PCL in late November along with a disclosated kneecap and his future is unknown. While the franchise-tagged Matthew Judon registered 9.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits — both team high, Jaylon Ferguson, a rookie, only finished with with 2.5 sacks and nine quarterback hits. **Cincinnati Bengals** 1.12 CIN - Christian Darrisaw(OT) - Virginia Tech(Trade) 2.38 CIN - Jayson Oweh (DE) - Penn State 2.43 CIN - Deonte Brown (OG) - Alabama(TRADE) 3.69 CIN - Seth Williams (WR) - Auburn The most important thing in Cincinnati this season is one thing and one thing alone, collect as many assets to protect and assist Joe Burrow this offseason. To make matters worse, Carl Lawson, AJ Green, and John Ross are free agents and most likely to be somewhere else in 2021. Cincinnati posted the second least sacks in 2020 and desperately needs to add playmakers on the edge. **Cleveland Browns** 1.26 CLE - Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa 2.59 CLE - Joe Tryon (DE) - Washington 3.90 CLE - Paris Ford (S) - Pittsburgh 3.92 CLE (via NO) - Alim Mcniel (DT) - NC State On defense, all three levels need to get better. But at the very least, Myles Garrett is locked in long-term as focal point of the defense and Denzel Ward seem likely to join him when he’s extended. I see the browns hammering the defensive side of the ball in the draft this year with a WR in the mix in the later rounds. **Pittsburgh Steelers** 1.24 PIT - Liam Eichenberg (OT) - Norte Dame 2.55 PIT - Josh Myers (C) - Ohio State 3.88 PIT - Javonte Williams (RB) - North Carolina With the retirement of Pouncey looming along with free agency of Villanueva, Steelers desperately need to find cheap options on the OL. Eichenburg and Myers provide elite, cheap fills and can be franchise players. The question mark for RB is also a big one. Do they resign Connor, find another option like Kenyan Drake, Jerrick Mckinnon, or Chris Carson or draft one. I think Javonte is great value at 88 and can be a huge boost to the backfield. **Buffalo Bills** 1.30 BUF - Wyatt Davis (OL) - Ohio State 2.62 BUF - Greg Newsome II (CB) - Northwestern 3.94 BUF - Brevin Jordan (TE) - Miami The Bills are a complete deep that doesn’t have many sports for an instant starter. Wyatt Davis is an ideal fit for filling one of the holes in the G position that struggled mightily on running. While Dawson Knox ended up filling an important TE spot late in the year, Brevin Jordan provides Josh Allen with an elite NFL prospect that has the potential to be a star. **Miami Dolphins** 1.03 MIA (via HOU) - Devonta Smith (WR) - Alabama 1.18 MIA - Sam Cosmi (OT) - Texas 2.36 MIA (via HOU) - Joseph Ossai (LB) - Texas 2.50 MIA - Travis Etienne (RB) - Clemson 3.82 MIA - Drake Jackson (IOL) - Kentucky In Tua year two, the Dolphins need to fill out their roster if they want to compete with the Bills. There are multiple needs Miami has, but filling out their OL and giving Tua elite options are the priority. Drafting Cosmi gives the Dolphins much needed OL depth though they drafted a OT in the first round last year. There is some belief that Cosmi can be placed at guard and will be a help wherever. Finally, Ossai is a perfect fit in the Dolphins D. The do-it-all Edge Rushing OLB will provide the Dolphins D with yet another playmaker. **New England Patriots** 1.15 NE - Kyle Pitts (TE) - Florida 2.46 NE - Kyle Trask (QB) - Florida Offense, Offense, Offense. Patriots need to hammer a rebuild on the offensive side of the draft if they even want to dream about the playoffs again. The Bills and Dolphins are a major threat in the AFC and Newton at QB wasn’t a longterm fix. Pitts provides Belichick with an elite pass catcher who can line up all over the field. The Patriots have been blessed with Brady long enough and they finally draft his replacement, Kyle Trask. **New York Jets** 1.02 NYJ - Penei Sewell (OT) - Oregon 1.23 NYJ (via SEA) - Eric Stokes (CB) - Georgia 2.34 NYJ - Najee Harris (RB) - Alabama 3.66 NYJ - Nico Collins (WR) - Michigan 3.87 NYJ (via SEA) - Chris Rumph II (DE) - Duke If the Jets want to compete next year, they need to address almost every position. If Robert Saleh decides to stick with his 23-year old QB, Sam Darnold, drafting Sewell and moving either him or Becton to RT might save years on Darnold’s life. While trading down or trading for Watson might be the move the Jets likely do if they decide not to draft a QB, passing on a so-called All-pro level OT is tough decision. Stokes is an elite outside corner fills a much needed hole. **Houston Texans** 3.67 HOU - Hamilcar Rashed (DE) -Oregon State Houston we have a problem. Who knows what’s going to happen in Houston, heck, the don’t have a head coach yet. The only thing we do know is that (as a Houstonian myself) they need to make impactful decisions this offseason on Deshaun Watson, JJ Watt, and quite frankly almost the entire roster. I mocked Houston a DE to provide depth on the DL but if they get a blockbuster trade involving Deshaun, we might see them in the top-5. **Indianapolis Colts** 1.21 IND - Mac Jones (QB) -Alabama 2.54 IND - Teven Jenkins (OT) - Oklahoma State 3.85 IND - Tylan Wallace (WR) - Ok State Indianapolis has an elite defense and if they can fix the holes on offense they will be a threat in the AFC for years to come. With the retirements of Phillip Rivers and Anthony Constanzo, LT and QB becoming immediate early draft picks or free agent acquisitions and I believe drafting Mac Jones and Teven Jenkins will be good replacements. Lastly, Tylan Wallace fills depth at WR and is one of the smoothest WR in the class. **Jacksonville Jaguars** 1.01 JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson 1.25 JAX (via LAR) - Jaelan Phillips (DE) - Miami (FL) 2.33 JAX - Jalen Mayfield (OT) - Michigan 2.45 JAX (via MIN) - Pat Freiermuth (TE) - Penn State 3.65 JAX - Bubba Bolden (S) - Miami The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently in the process of completing their regime change under new head coach Urban Meyer. Once that happens, it will be all about making improvements to the roster this offseason. With Lawrence as a lock, Urban Meyer has to surround his franchise QB with a roster that’ll be competitive. Jaelen Phillips brings an elite edge threat to a team that registered the least amount of sacks last year and Mayfield (Had to draft a Michigan Grad and 2 Miami grads to Urban) will fill a much needed hole on the OL. **Tennessee Titans** 1.22 TEN - Greg Rousseau (DE) - Miami(FL) 2.53 TEN - Kadarius Toney (WR) - Florida 3.86 TEN - Darius Stills (DT) - West Virginia By far, Tennessee’s biggest problem right now is a lack of consistent pass rush, which should have them targeting an edge defender early in this draft. Greg Rousseau fills the need and provides a high-upside EDGE to assist whatever they bring in in free agency.. Toney has a special combination of speed and quickness that makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field. He shakes defenders with ease when facing man-to-man coverage and has shown the ability to find soft spots against zone. Once the ball is in his hands, Toney kicks it into high gear and often leaves the defense in his dust. **Denver Broncos** 1.09 DEN - Caleb Farley (CB) - Virginia Tech 2.40 DEN - Carlos Basham Jr (DE) - Wake Forest 3.71 DEN - Jabril Cox (LB) - LSU With the 9th pick, the Broncos should be targeting one of the several talented cornerbacks in this 2021 NFL Draft class. The Broncos brought in former Pro Bowler A.J. Bouye via trade with the Jaguars and he has been on and off the field due to injuries this season. I think Farley is incredibly talented and he fills a need for Vic Fangio's defense. On the other side of Fangio’s scheme, his defense is one that allows edge rushers to thrive. Look at the work he’s done specifically in Chicago with Khalil Mack. With Von Miller battling injuries and getting older, the need for a possible future edge rusher has become more apparent for the Broncos. By selecting Basham and Cox, Fangio gets elite depth and pieces that he maneuver all over the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if Broncos all try to go after Teven Jenkins or Jalen Mayfield in the second round if they are available. Though they have JuWuan James returning, they struggled with OL depth last year and need to get more consistent if they are going to compete. **Kansas City Chiefs** 1.32 KC - Azeez Ojulari (LB) - Georgia 2.64 KC - Ben Cleveland (OG) - Georgia 3.96 KC - Tutu Atwell (WR) - Louisville One thing the Chiefs will need in 2021 is help at the edge rusher position. Right now, Frank Clark and Mike Danna are the only two players currently under contract. They’ll need to find a few more in the draft and undrafted free agency if they don’t re-sign any of their pending free agents. At 6-3, 240 pounds, Ojulari might be a better fit for a 3-4 defense, but he can get after quarterbacks with the best of them in this class. A smart defensive coordinator will move him around on defense and let him loose. Cleveland is in his third season at Georgia, playing right guard, and he has not allowed a sack or even a quarterback hit at Georgia. There are also questions about Cleveland's athleticism, but he is looked at as a strong, intelligent player for the Bulldogs at right guard and that could be a nice addition to the Chiefs' interior offensive line, which still has its fair share of struggles. Lastly, by adding Tutu Atwell to the chiefs, you give Mahomes another Tyreek Hill. Atwell (5'9/165) was one of Louisville's most prolific playmakers on the offensive side of the football in 2019. He established a new school record in receiving yards (1,276) and tied the school record in touchdown receptions (12). **Las Vegas Raiders** 1.17 LV - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) - Norte Dame 2.48 LV - Levi Onwuzurike (DT) Washington 3.81 LV - Aaron Banks (OG) - Notre Dame When it comes to the draft, the Raiders still have plenty of holes to fill, particularly when it comes to the team’s defensive side. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have spent plenty of picks on the defense but have yet to draft a player who looks like he can be All-Pro, or even pro bowl material on defense. JOK is a bit undersized at only 220 pounds, but he is incredibly athletic and quick twitch. On top of that, he is a very smart player and would provide many of the coverage traits that the Raiders thought Littleton would provide. With the Raiders possibly letting go Richie Incognito, Aaron Banks slides in as an instant starter on the OL. **Los Angeles Chargers** 1.13 LAC - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech 2.47 LAC - Landon Dickerson (IOL) - Alabama 3.78 LAC - Rodarius Williams (CB) - OK State The most important thing this summer, similar to the Bengals, is to protect Burrow at all costs. A big, dominant athlete at the position, Darrisaw is a blast. His footwork is some of the smoothest in the class. In the open field, Darrisaw moves and climbs to the second level with ease and efficiency. Darrisaw immediately slides in at left tackle as a long-term upgrade over Trey Pipkins. Just from a purely schematic standpoint, Darrisaw fits better into a zone-run scheme. His movement ability and experience with the Hokies lends itself to that. It is exciting when you realize that Darrisaw still has room to grow in his frame. In the 47th pick, I selected Landon Dickerson. Center Dan Feeney is not the number one priority to be upgraded upon, but Landon Dickerson is excellent value at this spot. A steady, polished prospect, Dickerson is the definition of a plug-and-play starter. This is a young man that gets push and sets a tone. Lastly, they select Rodarius Williams. It is sad seeing Casey Hayward fall a bit off the proverbial cliff. The man is 31 years old, and now that is the age where many cornerbacks meet their demise. On the positive side of things, Michael Davis is emerging as a real gamer. Chris Harris is still solid inside at the nickel, too. However, cornerback is emerging as a massive need for the Chargers to address. **NFC** **Chicago Bears** 1.20 CHI - Alex Leatherwood (OT) - Alabama 2.52 CHI - Terrace Marshal (WR) - LSU 3.84 CHI - Hamsah Nasirildeen(S) - Florida State Matt Nagy desperately needs to overhaul their offense if they want to compete with the Packers in the upcoming years. To start, I believe the biggest needs the Bears must address this offseason is the offensive line and Receiver. If the Bears want to find an adequate replacement for the expected departure of Allen Robinson, they’ll have to strongly consider using their first pick, however in this mock draft I have them assessing OT first. **Detroit Lions** 1.04 DET - Justin Fields (QB) - Ohio State (TRADE) *Atl trades to 1.04 to DET for 1.07, 3.72, 2022 fifth* 2.41 DET - Jay Tufele (DT) - USC With the departure of Stafford announced, Lions have a new QB coming to town. While they will most likely receive draft compensation in return, I decided against mocking a trade in this draft. With the Jets deciding to select Sewell, Miami, ATL, and Cinn will all be interested in trading down. Justin Fields comes in as an immediate started and DET gets to keep their second round pick. **Green Bay Packers** 1.29 GB - Daviyon Nixon (DT) - Iowa 2.61 GB - Asante Samuel Jr. (CB) - Florida State 3.93 GB - Elijah Moore (WR) - Ole Miss Like the other 3 teams that made the Championship Weekend, the Packers have minimal needs. Kevin King was exposed versus the Bucs and I wouldn’t be surprised if they draft a CB with the first round pick. If the Packers can add another monster upfront, it would help them in so many areas. For starters, it would make life easier on their inside linebackers and open up more gaps for the backer to fill in the running game. A player who can get after the quarterback by pushing the pocket would also alleviate some stress on the secondary and free up blockers for the Packers’ edge rushers. **Minnesota Vikings** 1.14 MIN - Jaycee Horn (CB) - South Carolina 3.79 MIN - Marvin Wilson (DT) - Florida State 3.91 MIN (via BAL) - Rashad Weaver (DE) - Pitt With the 14th pick, the Vikings can go many routes, address the OL, draft an edge rusher, or fix the back end of the defense. With Spielman as GM, it is very unlikely that the Vikings will never draft an EDGE rusher in the first round. The Vikings gave up the second-most passes of 20 or more yards (63), and they lack any sort of elite talent at cornerback. Jaycee Horn would be an immediate upgrade and one of the most impactful picks of my 2021 NFL mock draft. Head Coach Mike Zimmer said that “this years defense was the worst defense he’s ever had”, and I believe they do all they can to reinvigorate their squad. **Dallas Cowboys** 1.10 DAL - Patrick Surtain II (CB) - Alabama 2.44 DAL - Trevon Moehrig (S) - TCU 3.75 DAL - Chazz Surratt (LB) - North Carolina Going into the 2021 draft, the Cowboys have multiple holes they need to address. To start they desperately need to address their secondary. If the Cowboys do not keep Chidobe Awuzie they could be in the market for at least two corners. Along with that, the Dallas Cowboys have not drafted a safety in the first round since 2002 when the team selected Roy Williams with the eighth overall pick. While linebacker has some talent and depth, being a less premier position, does not hold the value to spend a first-round pick. **New York Giants** 1.11 NYG - Ja’marr Chase (WR)- LSU 2.42 NYG - Quincy Roche (DE) - Miami 3.76 NYG - Jackson Carmen (OT) - Clemson I think that the Giants are an ascending football team, but they need to be more explosive offensively. Ja’Marr Chase might be the number one WR in the Class and has the size and speed to be the main target for Daniel Jones. One of the more bizarre stats to come out of the 2020 regular season was that the Giants’ top four pressure marks all came from interior defensive linemen. Leonard Williams (62 pressures), Dexter Lawrence (29), Dalvin Tomlinson (28) and B.J. Hill (22) all produced more quarterback pressures than New York’s top mark from an edge defender — Kyler Fackrell with just 19. By drafting an EDGE in the second round, they bring in a dire need. **Philadelphia Eagles** 1.06 PHI - Micah Parsons (LB) - Penn State 2.37 PHI - Rashod Bateman (WR) - Minnesota 3.70 PHI - Paulson Adebo (CB) -Stanford The Eagles have massive holes to fill and might have multiple key players from their SB team leaving this offseason. The Eagles haven’t drafted an off-the-ball linebacker in the first two rounds since 2012 when they took Mychal Kendricks at No. 46 overall. But wow, is Parsons special. He can drop in coverage, wrap up in run defense or get to the QB when turned loose on a blitz. They happen to get unbelievable value at 37th pick with Rashod Bateman. Last year, they took the speedster when they snagged Jalen Reagor at No. 21. In this mock draft, the Eagles find a more complete receiver in Rashod Bateman. **Washington Football Team** 1.19 WSH - Jaylen Waddle (WR) - Alabama 2.51 WSH - Walker Little (OT) - Stanford 3.74 WSH (via SF) - Andre Cisco (S) - Syracuse 3.83 WSH - Cameron Mcgrone (LB) - Michigan It's no surprise that the Football Team needs a QB, but they most likely need to give up an unbelievable amount of draft capitol if they want a taste at the top 4 QBs in the draft. With the abundance of QB’s in the market this offseason, it won’t be a surprise if they make a run at Matt Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jimmy G, or Matt Ryan if they become available. Washington could bring in one of the elite Receivers in Free Agency, but Waddle at 19 is hard to pass up. Walker Little provides much need OL depth and very well could start at RT this upcoming season. Finally, Andre Cisco and Cameron Mcgrone add playmaking abilities to their defense and make their defense an elite force for the 2021 season. **Atlanta Falcons** 1.07 ATL - Kwity Paye (DE) -Michigan (TRADE) *Atl trades to 1.04 to DET for 1.07, 3.72, 2022 fifth* 2.35 ATL - Aaron Robinson (CB) - UCF 3.68 ATL - Dylan Moses (LB) - Alabama 3.72 ATL - Kenneth Gainwell (RB) - Memphis (Trade) Atlanta comes into the 2021 Draft in a unique position. They have plenty of talent, but a team full of aging superstars and an abysmal defense brought them to the number 4 pick. Most likely the top 6 will be Lawrence, Sewell and a run on QBs and WRs bringing the Falcons in a unique position. If they decide to draft a QB, they are in perfect position to pick one but I believe the best idea is to trade down. With Detroit, Carolina, Denver, NE, SF, WFT, and Indy all possibly lining up with a new QB in 2021, ATL can get good value if they want to trade down. **Carolina Panthers** 1.08 CAR - Trey Lance (QB) - NDSU 2.39 CAR - Nick Bolton (LB) - Missouri 3.73 CAR - Dillon Radunz (OT) North Dakota State If Trey Lance falls to 8, Carolina would be happy to pick Lance with the eighth pick. Drafting a quarterback is almost a certainty at this point but if the Panthers take the "aggressive" approach that new general manager Scott Fitterer has talked about, they will likely trade up for either BYU's Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields. The Carolina Panthers are going to need a long-term solution to their middle linebacker spot sooner rather than later and Nick Bolton fills the void left by Luke Kuechly. Nick Bolton is a physical hitter who has the right sort of speed to become a sideline-to-sideline force at the next level. Finally, Tackle in particular is a priority with the Panthers likely to move on from left tackle Russell Okung 32, and right tackle Taylor Moton likely to draw interest in free agency that could make him too costly. Offensive line is one of the hardest positions to evaluate unless that player is dominating, and it's highly unlikely Sewell will fall to No. 8. There aren't many after him who are guaranteed a first-round grade, so Carolina likely will have to build that area with lower picks. **New Orleans Saints** 1.28 NO - Tyson Campbell (CB) - Georgia 2.60 NO - Jevon Holland (S) - Oregon The Saints have many decisions this offseason regarding their elite defensive that puts them in a tough spot. It’s currently uncertain what the New Orleans secondary will look like next season as Janoris Jenkins, PJ Williams, Justin Hardee, and Ken Crawley are all set to be free agents, and adding a top tier talent like Campbell and Holland could help the team for years. **Tampa Bay Buccaneers** 1.31 TB - Christian Barmore (DT) - Alabama 2.63 TB - Trey Sermon (RB) - Ohio State 3.95 TB -Jamie Newman (QB) - Georgia Tech The Bucs have a really solid roster. Suh is already 34, so they should look to beef up their defensive line. Christian Barmore is an elite DT prospect with a massive frame that will complement Vita Vea and Such greatly. By adding Sermon, the Bucs gain an elite, powerful back that can be an elite blocker and difference maker. Finally, Jamie Newman at 95 provides Tampa with a solid back-up that can be a quality starter in a few years once Tom Brady is retired. **Arizona Cardinals** 1.16 ARI - Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL) - USC 2.49 ARI - Rondale Moore (WR) - Purdue 3.80 ARI - Elijah Molden (CB) - Washington There’s a good chance they go defense here with 14, but we know Arizona is an offensive team first, and that’s where the priority is. Alijah Vera-Tucker will hold the middle, protect Kyler Murray, and solidify the base. With Horn, Surtain, and Farley, all selected before their choice, look for the Cardinals to select a player to help solidify their OL. At the 49th pick, Arizona takes an elite WR that very could be taken in round 1. **Los Angeles Rams** 2.57 LAR - Trey Smith (OL) - Tennessee 3.89 LAR - Baron Browning (LB) - Ohio State Going into the 2021 offseason, the Rams have quite a few question marks among the OL. Whitworth is old and the rest of the OL might be gone this offseason. They violently need to address the OL in the draft and this offseason. Trey Smith is an elite run blocking guard and though he played mostly inside, he can be flexed on the outside if needed. The Rams may have their most questions right now at the linebacker position and several key names could be gone by next year. Cory Littleton and Dante Fowler were lost this offseason, Samsom Ebukam will be a free agent next year, and Leonard Floyd was only signed to a one-year contract. Baron Browning is a must for the elite Rams D and provides Sean Mcvay with an athletic playmaker. **San Francisco 49ers** 1.05 SF - Zach Wilson (QB)- BYU (TRADE) *SF trade 1.12, 2.43, 4.114, 2022 First, 2022 third to CIN for 1.12* San Francisco has an important offseason in front of them if they want to continue being atop the NFC West. Injuries battered the 49ers this year and it was a disappointing season all around. The 49ers are in salary cap hell next season and needs to do something if they want to resign Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Soloman Thomas, and Jason Verrett among others. If I was the 49ers GM, you have many options but none more complimented than the QB. Garoppolo has a $26.9 million salary-cap hit next season, and it only costs $2.8 million to cut him. At this point, it's far from a guarantee Jimmy G plays quarterback for the 49ers in 2021. **Seattle Seahawks** 2.56 SEA - Shaun Wade (CB) - Ohio State Seattle only has one pick in the first 3 rounds and they drastically need to improve their secondary. Ohio State defensive back Shaun Wade will be a hotly contested prospect after seeing his fair share of successes and failures with the Buckeyes program. Wade burst onto the scene as a dynamic freshman and starred in a nickel corner role for a Buckeyes secondary that was loaded with talent throughout the course of his first two seasons in Columbus. But Wade’s junior season saw a transition to the perimeter and a fair share of struggles with life on the outside, calling into question whether or not Wade can play on the boundary and whether or not he’s destined for a role as a nickel or safety. Based on Wade’s 2020 play, a transition to strong safety feels like a safe bet to maximize his athletic skills, length, and hitting power without tasking him to cover too much ground or play on an island in coverage. Wade’s ceiling really shines when he’s able to be protected vertically, so even if he went into the pros as a cornerback, he’d be best suited to play in a two-deep variation. In all, Wade has plenty of potential; but after three seasons in Columbus, he feels no closer to reaching it and a position change may be his best ticket to getting there.
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