I am going to Vegas soon and will be staying on the strip. Have a few questions for anybody who regularly visits, knows the area, or lives there. We will not have a vehicle so all travel will be by uber, shuttles, or on foot. I am aware shows may be closed which sucks but it is what it is for now.
Are there grocery stores in walking distance of the Bellagio area?
Affordable breakfast spots?
Lunch/dinner spots we should check out for sure?
Areas to avoid at night (or during the day for that matter)?
I did my best to research some of this but the strip is so overwhelming with casinos and places to go that it's difficult to sort through, especially having never been. Thanks in advance! Feel free to comment or pm.

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I decided on a last minute whim to play the Venetian 100k this weekend. I planned on entering flight 1C on Friday and to my surprise, I was alternate 180 at around noon. The tournament was around 200 capacity with no rooms for more because the cash games were going and was told to come back an hour later to check if I would be next. 4 o'clock rolls around and the tournament director isn't even close to calling my number. The blinds were 300/600 with 600 BB ante, and I de-registered and got my money back. I asked the cage personnel if I can register for flight 1D, and to my surprise they said no, and to come around at 8 in the morning to wait in line.
After getting my money back, I drove over to the Bellagio and played in a mix game that consisted of stud 8 and super stud 8. Cindy Violet was playing and running bad, and Chau Giang sat down for a brief moment not playing a single hand and leaving quickly. I played in the game for 14 hours and was down $485 and decided to call it a session. Bellagio poker room was not filled to the brim and my game was tucked in the corner closest to the cage.
I drove back to the Venetian at 7 am and got my $300 free play chips from the casino cage, and proceeded to run the free money up to $1000 real money on the blackjack tables. At around 8 am, I colored up and went to line up at the poker room. The line was already 50 deep and registration doesn't open til 9 am. By the time 9 am roll around the line has already stretched around the huge electronic baccarat tables and pass the Asian noodle restaurant. I registered and went back to my hotel room for shower and a 2 hour nap.
I woke up at 10:45 am, and ate a breakfast sandwich I had gotten before going to my room. I got to my seat at 11:05 and the tournament has just started. Room was very packed, you could not lift up your elbows without bumping into someone. Players at my table were filthy casuals who called preflop with 75% ranges, and I was able to double up my stack at level 2. Someone even called my pot size river bet with 95 high because they thought I was bluffing on a board KQ843, I was, but I had A9. At level 6, I lost a few flips, and a cooler spot where I had top 2 vs a turned straight. I went to my room to sleep for the rest of the day.
TLDR:
Venetian : Poker room is cramped, but the competition is very weak. I got a free bottle of white wine and $300 free play chips to stay there.
Bellegio: Poker room had a lot of space. Saw semi famous poker players.
Vegas: Mask were mandatory everywhere, a lot of people wore them incorrectly. No smoking at the blackjack tables. Strip is sketchier than normal, saw homeless lady in the Venetian fountains skimming for change.
Drove home on Sunday.

Just took a trip...here is what I saw/notes. Feel free to ask questions
Major push for sanitation INSIDE casinos/hotels, etc. If you're on the Strip outside you're on your own
Imagine the Strip at night and then eliminate about 85% of it. Not a lot of "sideshows" "performers" etc. Very comfortable walking in terms for crowd size
All the casinos are doing their best when it comes to health (Bellagio has plexi glass), masks at all tables, slots shut off/chairs removed.
10% of the people wear masks that are not employees or working somewhere
I know there is more but ask if you want

As requested, I will provide DD for NAT, DHT Holdings and MGM based on votes from my previous thread. I'll start with the tankers. (Let me note that I do not expect the general market trend to be positive for the next few weeks)
​
Preface: Positive Virus news is generally bad for Tanker company share prices.
NAT
Current share price: $6.12
EPS Q1 2019: $0.04
EPS Q1 2020 Estimate: $0.26
Earnings: 5/18 (Per NAT website, Thanks u/Nice_Block)
NAT operates Suezmax size tankers, the next step down from VLCC, and daily prices for Suezmax's are considerably less than VLCC. Current spot price is up 141% at $3.92 bpd from March of 2019 to March of 2020. I think that this earnings estimate is roughly accurate, but suezmax vessels have more room for positive price movement as more and more storage is filled to capacity. Suezmax ships allow producers more maneuverability and fluidity to store their oil, as such, turnover rates are higher than VLCC vessels.
Revenues at current prices indicate an earnings estimate closer to $0.36. This is the high end of earnings estimates. Additionally, demand for oil consumption is not likely to improve soon. If anything, a slow reopening of states without ports will not affect tanker company bottom lines and will extend the operating duration of oil producers in the permian. Keep in mind, if oil consumption does not increase, wells will either shut down, or more likely, prices will go negative again. This may have some effect on spot price for tanker transports. That said, spot prices are not likely to diminish significantly in the near future.
As a bonus, NAT recently (like yesterdayish) approved a buyback program to take advantage of increased revenues. This is the best news for NAT holders at this time. Their true intentions will be reflected in the earnings call.
Price Target: $8 in the short term. If quarantine continues through June with no oil production cuts, I would expect at $10+ is possible, but unlikely.
Historical action levels: https://imgur.com/a/dzsAZop
One week chart showing some consolidation for a potential breakout: https://imgur.com/a/10DZWE7
Note - I suggested this as a bullish play last weekend, and as such my $8 price target was hit on Tuesday. This ship may have already sailed. Pun intended. I would find another trade.
Recommendation: If you are dead set on an NAT play, shares at a reduced price through earnings, or options with expiry longer than 45 days out purchased next week.
​
DHT Holdings
Current share price: 7.10
EPS Q1 2019: $0.13
EPS Q1 2020 Estimate: $0.57
Earnings: 5/5
DHT operates operates exclusively VLCC tankers, of which the majority are on spot price rental. Current spot price for VLCC tankers up to 180k/day, up from an average of 19k/day this time last year. This is an over 9x increase. NAT is also currently operating more tankers on spot price rental, increasing volume under spot price contract over last year. They currently have 23 of 27 operating on spot pricing.
Historical action levels: https://imgur.com/a/X3W3kD4
One week chart showing downward channel (Im not sure this trend is completed yet) before potential breakout: https://imgur.com/a/CYCaYcv
Recommendation: I think the resistance levels for DHT are more relevant than those of NAT, and are also more realistic to be beaten. Calls mid week for EOW earnings at least 2 weeks out. General market sentiment is important for this trade.
​
MGM
Current share price: 15.01
Summary of MGM's plans to reopen casinos: https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/04/30/mgm-plans-reopen-las-vegas-bellagio-new-york-new-york/3061417001/
I would expect the mayor of Las Vegas to attempt to reopen the tourism to the city along with President Trump's guidance. If they are able, they will reopen soon. They likely will not have large scale shows or concert events to draw in customers, but gambling will be open to some extent. I do not expect casinos to see a large influx of patrons, and this will end up being a net negative for them in the coming months as their expenses will increase more than revenues. They may even potentially have to re-close if Covid testing reveals an uptick in cases in the Las Vegas area. That said, their saving grace is Macau, where a significantly large portion of their income is generated. China expects tourism to Macau to increase, but I would take that with a grain of salt.
Given MGM's recent meteoric rise to nearly $18 per share, I think they fall into the sentiment of the rest of the market and will suffer in the coming month. I expect the share price will visit mid-april prices of $13, or potentially lower following a general trend with SPY. Luckily, If you see these prices, I consider MGM a very long term and stable play. They have enough cash on hand to last an entire year with no revenue; a situation that is uncommon at this time. In general, event or discretionary based spending, hospitality and travel will be the last to recover, but this is a commonly assessed sentiment.
Historical action levels: MGM was not surprisingly rejected by the historical support level of $17.50 this week https://imgur.com/a/aoRNvk8
5 day chart does not provide any major price movement indication.
Recommendation: Sell shares, do nothing until share prices revisit mid-April levels.
​
As always, feel free to comment and tell me why I'm wrong.
EDIT - I accidentally switched which size tanker each company uses, it has been corrected - Shoutout u/kindlyblacksmith

My friends and I will be going a week from next week (it’s just three of us, we are bringing face masks, plastic face shields, hand sanitizer, and travel size disinfectant, plus we’re planning on going to lake mead and the river for a majority of the trip). I’ve been to Vegas quite a few times and I’m not concerned about they’re not being a ton to do like usual in order to have fun. But, I am curious on a day that we explore the strip, what are free things in certain casinos that are cool to see/look at?
The kinda stuff I’m talking about that I’ve already seen is like the Bellagio conservatory, the worlds largest chocolate fountain, the Caesars statues, the flamingo garden, etc. I’ve been inside most casinos on the side of the strip near MGM and across the street from there all the way down to Caesars/flamingo. Beyond that I haven’t explored much. I also have been to Fremont but have only been in like Golden Nugget and one other one.
I was just wondering if anyone knows of any little known or even well known things that are cool to see and maybe could serve as cool photo ops? Thanks in advance for your suggestions!

It's in the news and I've received emails from MGM and Caesars:
June 4th opening:

• MGM properties: Bellagio, New York-New York and MGM Grand. The Bellagio gardens have been updated from the Year of the Rat, to a "Japanese Spring" theme.
• Caesars properties: Caesars and Flamingo
• Boyd Properties: California, Fremont, Jokers Wild, Gold Coast, The Orleans
• Wynn/Encore Other properties opening June 4:
  
• Treasure Island
  
• Venetian
  
• The D/Golden Gate They are currently offering some free flights to get there. Most of the flights are already booked.
  
• Station casinos (except for Fiesta Rancho, Palms and Texas station, confirmed via website).
  
• El Cortez
  
• The Cosmopolitan
  
• Sahara
  
• The Strat
  

Golden Nugget will open 6/3 @ 3PM for hotel guest. Casino will open at 12:01AM on June 4. .
The Linq Promenade and restaurants in that area will also be open shortly.
OYO (formally Hooters) opening 7/1.

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
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Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
​
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
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Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
​
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
​
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
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6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
​
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
​
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
​
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
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Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
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2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
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But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
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Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
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The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
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But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
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1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
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2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
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And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
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Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.

Hi! I'm a 32f and I'm going to be in Vegas from Saturday to Thursday for work. This is the first time I've ever been to Vegas and I want to get a taste of Vegas without going too crazy, since I'm there for work. Not huge into clubbing, but I like blackjack and good food. I have free time Sunday afternoon and in the evenings. I'll probably be doing most of my exploring on my own. What can you recommend for me to check out as a girl traveling by herself? Staying at the Westgate. Thanks!

This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet
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Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.

Nobody has asked in awhile, so I'll give an update:
Recently stayed here with family because we wanted to try a hotel "off strip" and casino-free. Tossed a $20 during check-in and was upgraded from a studio parlor to a city corner suite facing Aria. Was beautiful. First thing we noticed was how clean and elegant the hotel was and NO smoke smell cus it doesn't have a casino. You can literally step outside, look left, and walk one minute to Aria OR you can stay in the hotel and use the walkway that connects to Bellagio when you wanna gamble. Vdara to Bellagio casino floor is maybe five minutes at a casual pace. People that complain about this make me giggle. It's a trivial price to pay for a chill and modern hotel.
Speaking of chill, that's another thing we loved about Vdara. Because it doesn't have a casino, it doesn't have the hustle and bustle of other strip hotels directly on the strip. Vdara is behind Cosmo and in between Bellagio and Aria so that's why I call it "off strip" in quotes. There always seems to be an employee nearby to greet you too, which is nice. Our room was immaculate. Had a Bosch washer and dryer (looked barely used), a gigantic refrigerator, an electric stove, dishwasher, and nice deep soaking tub in the bathroom, and all the other stuff you'd expect in a Vegas hotel (overpriced minibar, flatscreen tvs, etc). The staff was excellent from the valet, bellhops, front desk, and cafe, you name it. Our tv remote wasn't working and a game came to fix it (was a problem with the concealed cable box) in less than 5 minutes.
The pool was open, but we didn't use it cus it was too cold out (December). Good to know you also have access to Aria's pool as well. As Vdara is an MGM property you have access to self-parking or valet at any MGM property which brings me to my only real gripe. Behind Vdara is a huge parking garage but it's only for valet. Wish they had self-parking.
Overall, I would recommend Vdara to anyone who wants to enjoy a night on the strip but end it in a comparatively quiet and chill place. This place is also great for families or business because of the in-room amenities they offer. Coming back from business/vacation with clean clothes is super underrated! Don't be scared off by folks hating that it's not directly on the strip, it's totally fine and I'm out of shape as hell. You walk outside and take an elevator down, cross a small intersection and you're in Cosmo's parking garage.

Day 1: Lands in LV at 11AM, pick up the SUV and drive towards South Rim through Hoover Dam. I will be spending a night in Flagstaff.
Day 2: Wake up early and drive toward Sedona (optional), sightsee for a bit and make my way from Sedona to GC South Rim. I will be staying in Bright Angel Lodge for the next two nights. Hoping to catch the sunset by the South Rim.
Day 3: No specific plans. Hoping for the good weather at the South Rim.
Day 4: Enjoy the South Rim until the afternoon, and drive towards Zion National Park. Will be staying at the Bumbleberry Inn.
Day 5: Wake up early and enjoy Zion national park. Leave before the sun set towards LV. Will be staying in the Strip area. Maybe gamble a bit? Haha
Day 6: Catch the flight at 11AM!

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
This section is a bit erratic as I had to jump around a lot and it may not flow well. I almost didnt post it and instead did a short version, but it did the story no justice imo. The tail off in these posts are going to end with a lot of self reflection and things I have learned through all of this. I hope to keep the remainder to less than 3-4 parts but could genuinely make it 30-40 if I wanted to. This part (the bulk of it) is going to cover the least amount of actual time but its a pretty important juncture in my life.
I am about 3-4 weeks clean of opiates but I am still withdrawing badly, though no where near as bad as I was early on it was still bad. Could not sleep was always sore and achey sneezy runny nose etc etc. They say a month is what it takes to cold turkey but I was taking so much that it wasnt pacing well. One thing I realize in my current day and I will probably elaborate on it more later but taking oxy or opiates was only about the high for a month or two in the beginning. If you know anyone who struggles with it they arent taking it to get high, they are taking it to not hurt, taking it just to feel normal. Opiates are so unbelievably addicting its mind boggling to me. They are the most evil thing I have ever encountered.
I am driving to go play as I am trying to start playing live for income and I reach into my center console to grab some aspirin (it kinda helped the joint pain and physical pain of the withdraw) and I dump a few aspirin out and a little blue/green pill falls into my hand. As it turns out there were three 30s in that bottle. I remember this so vividly. I havent had an ounce of opiates since WSOP. Im 2-3 weeks from being clean of withdrawal and the worst is behind me, and I stumble onto these. I clench them in my hands for the rest of the drive to the casino. I even call my dad to tell him to try and get motivation to rid of them. He told me to throw them out the window obviously. Its why they were clenched in my hand. I rolled down the window and just hang my hand unable to open it. I cant bring myself to get rid of them. I remember laughing at it. A weird thing about being on oxy/heroin then getting clean is the emotions, despite being in pain from withdrawal I was laughing again, I hadnt laughed in a while. Emotions are strong when you havent felt them in a long time, whether it be anger or joy or sadness it is overwhelming. Anyhow I convince myself that I can handle doing 3 more and be fine. So I crush one up and blow it. I go into the casino to play, and within an hour I am getting the other two crushed up. My tolerance was still sky high even after a month roughly. I blow all 3 in an hour and play for a couple hours and leave once they wear off, withdrawals end up increasing a bit and now I am just wanting some hydrocodone to make the withdrawal go away.
So now I break my 3-4 weeks clean (immediately following WSOP) and buy some loritabs. These just took the pain away. There was no high from them but it took a lot to make the pain go away, was taking 3 10s at a time 5-6 times I day. Ashamedly I was actually snorting these too :/ which is a lot of powder and aspirin.
My body has been waking up from not having oxy. What I mean is oxy numbs you physically and mentally. You could jerk off for 3 hours and make your dick bleed but you wont get off. Youre emotionally and physically numb. So my sex drive is coming back. I have about 6k to my name. I am playing cards one day and I just snap. I lose it. I cant handle the monotonous live game. Not to mention I was playing 1-2nl as thats what was available in Tulsa outside of weekend nights and a scheduled big game.
So I text a girl I messed around with before oxy. I havent talked to her in 18 months she had no clue I was even doing oxy but I still remember the text I sent (for the most part)
I sent her a text asking her if she wanted to go on a mini road trip. (Im absurdly blunt and overly analytical and it hurts me with women) She asked to where and I responded by jokingly saying theres a good satanic cult meet up in Kansas. A few messages exchange and I tell her to just pack a bag and I will be there in an hour. She agrees. I run home and pack myself a bag. I go to pick her up and shes having second thoughts and I convince her once again. We go to the airport (yea its changed to flying somewhere) with intention of taking the next flight out to anywhere really. Well Tulsa has few options so we have to go to Dallas and we will assess from there. I only have cash mind you and they rape you for buying cash. We get to Dallas and its either Vegas or Orlando. Vegas it is. We get to Vegas and I we have no reservation so we go to Caesars (decent rooms much cheaper than Bellagio etc) and all they have are Junior Suites. Fuck it give me two nights (its a Friday and were going back Sunday because she works Monday) at 650 a night. Then we eat a couple nice meals and money already running thin.
Now, I am supposed to be having fun on this trip. I like this girl actually, shes a great girl. However what I have yet to mention is when I ran home and packed my bag I left my bottle of hydrocodones... every passing hour after flying to Dallas I am further into withdrawal. I end up drinking most of the trip. I have the shits. Im sneezing. Im paranoid and over analytical and it just made an awful trip.
At one point on that Saturday night she gets frustrated and cries and tells me “I like love you _, but this _” the first __ is my name, the second I dont remember. I basically just got hit with the first part and I actually cry, standing in front of the Bellagio fountains. It was a combination of frustration with life having gone broke, opiate withdrawals, was drunk trying to mask withdrawals and that aided it and lastly hearing her say that just hurt me because I had clearly hurt her. I had messed with her 18+ months ago but was always playing cards never really made any efforts, essentially unavailable emotionally. Then I take her to Vegas and I am drinking and so fucking paranoid to fool around with her cause I am withdrawing and will blow a load in seconds or wtf ever else. Those words hit me hard though. I am too dumb to know that she felt that way. That is pretty much my assessment of that and a common theme with women for me. I do not pick up on subtle cues very well, and I am so analytical that any cues I do pick up I find a way to chalk it up to something else.
She was angry the rest of the trip and I never once talked to her again. I tried once but its irrelevant. I am in my early 30s and have never had a serious relationship in my life, thanks to poker and drugs. Honestly I think poker is the biggest reason. At the end of the day when you first start playing poker it is an addiction. I at one time in my life was a poker addict (spoiler alert I still play) and it consumed me. Time away from poker was spent altering my mind. I never was available to anyone. Before I played poker I had normal encounters with women. The longer I played the worse I became.
Ok I will try to rev this up a bit, those two or three months I reflect on a lot though. I think about her occasionally and had even meant to tell her this stuff at one time but never did (shes still unaware of everything outside of the shutdown breaking me, and that was more me than the shutdown).
So part 6 ended with me selling my truck. This actually happens now. I get home from Vegas with her and have relief with hydrocodones. I shatter my relationship with her, and actually one with a good friend who had owed me money and I had him run his card for my flights from Dallas to Vegas to save like 2000$ and made the mistake of saying I will write his debt off which was 3x what the flights cost. In fairness he used a company card, I agreed to terms and failed them. He was a very good friend to me and I have never talked to him since either. Partly because he is kind of a psycho (I say this kindly, hes just good friend or a bad enemy, not much in between) and told me if I ever see him I should turn around and run (to this day if I see him I would be tempted to do so, the guys a brute, hits harder than anyone I know, and I could write several pages of stories about him, I have seen him shatter the front window of a brand new corvette with a punch, not joking, shattered not cracked, be it a fluke or not I saw it, was in 2010 sometime, he went to jail obviously, quite the ramble on this but am tempted to share the story as its something out of a movie)
Fuck it. Short version.
At a bar 2010 with him his roommate and one of my friends in Dallas where he lived and we were visiting. His roommate walks over to a table of girls to hit on them and comes back saying her brother is mad. His roommates back turned to the table, my friend Joey is facing that table. The brother starts walking towards us angrily as Joey watches. This guy has 40lbs on Joey, but Joey is a freak of nature.
Once in range Joey swings and lays this guy out cold. Bar fight ensues. Joey breaks another guys jaw and has the original guy knocked out and the first guy in torn up. Theres a pile of security and shit with Joey on the bottom. It gets split up (Joey never got hit somehow, or had no bruises) and the bouncers are taking him outside. On the way outside with bouncers routing him by pushing him in front he bumps a table. Asshat hero at the table with two guys two gals says “hey buddy watch the table”. Joey breaks his right arm free and swings around his body (guys on his left) and literally knocks this guy on his back while still in his chair. Basically got a wind up and a 180 degree turn for that punch.
Outside they push him off and tell him to get the fuck out of here (cops are called already, I am not sure why they didnt try to detain him tbh, he fucked 3 guys up at this point) so Joey being Joey he kicks a potted plant over walks out towards his car to drive off and on the way to his car hes walking between two cars, one of which is this brand new 2011 Camaro and he just shatters the window... hits it dead center and fucking shatters it. Cops arrive pretty quickly and scoop him up.
One of the guys had his jaw wired shut and one needed reconstructive surgery on his nose if I remember right. The third guy got out good I guess. There was a fuck load of blood though.
Ok back to my shit. Had to tell that though, its a nuts story that doesnt even sound real. I wouldnt believe it from an anonymous source either, its ok.
As 2011 wears on I am losing control further. I end up having to move out of the house I dump like 40k into (while my sister refuses to show me any of the note progress and its now her house again, though she loses it eventually)
I have nowhere to go basically. My parents wont let me come if I am doing opiates. So I end up staying with a friend in Joplin MO. I am unable to stay afloat on pills and poker. I go busto a few times. Random money would arrive to me from old carbon checks to Stars paying out to running ok on TruePoker (kept a 10-15k roll alive long enough to do opiates for a couple months) but I am bouncing from hydros to oxycontin back and forth, running out quite often.
I end up in a methadone clinic early 2012 and eventually quit doing the pills. I am beyond depressed, barely leaving the room I had at my friends house. I am sure I laid in bed for 7 days straight a time or two. I pay him no rent and have to borrow money for my clinic trips. He had the house for free via a mutual friend though. Once my True account ran out I go on poker hiatus.
From 2012 to 2014ish I play essentially no poker aside from a few hands on Intertops from left over cake money. Which I bust eventually.
One isolated poker story from this stretch goes as such. I am staying at a hotel my grandfather (poker one) owns in a small town in NE Oklahoma. Hes letting me stay in one of the cabins on the property. I drive 45 minutes 3-4 days a week to get methadone here. I am depressed have no job and hustle money somehow. I dont even know where it came from but I would stumble onto a thousand here and there.
Tulsa is having tourneys one weekend. So I go play this 350$ two day. I forget the guarantee (it wasnt wsop or wpt it was local) but I think its 100k. It is one of the two or three times I enter a casino over these two years but I bag day one and day two goes well and we end up chopping it 3-4 ways with me and another guy taking two best spots at 15-16k. I remember zero hands from this tourney.
I go back to the cabin I was staying in. I have 15-16k now. I remember being alleviated about having money. I hadnt held 10,000$ in 12-18 months. I dont play a single hand of poker with it. It was so calming to have this money, I was content and didnt want to lose a dime of it. I did buy some oxy with it despite being on methadone and it doing nothing basically. This actually all happened before moving to Joplin, so it is chronologically wrong here. I slowly bleed this money off over a couple months. I just remember the contention I had for having it.
I get accustomed to methadone eventually and move back to Tulsa with another friend. I get a normal job slinging Pizzas at Papa Johns and fucking hate it. What an awful company, they make good pizza (for chain) but they are a joke to work for. Tip those drivers well, they make shit and get (at the time) 50 cents a delivery. PJs charges people 3$ and gives 50 cents to the driver...
Later on I have a buddy who deals circuit events and I get him to help me get hired. He gets me on under the assumption I have dealt before, I have not. I have dealt at my home games back in the day a time or two, I ended up being fine. I deal an event in St Louis then am trying to get set up for Tunica, buuuut I have a felony from when I was 18 (pre poker, never told story but long story short I got B&E charges for getting into a bunch of unlocked cars) and that ends my dealing career. So I move back home as the friend I was sharing a place with in Tulsa was on methadone and genuinely the dumbest guy I know. He was a highschool friend who I partied with a long time, but he ended up fucking me out of rent and didnt pay (just kept my money) and we get evicted.
Side note to the dealing job I had. I did play some poker in St Louis because the stop was so slow. I ended up making like 800$ dealing and 2k playing 1-2nlh while there. I play no poker when returning though, once again content to have any money at all.
I am still on methadone which my parents hate me being on it for obvious reasons. I get a job near them at a mushroom farm doing manual labor. I needed the exercise. Then get hired on to work in a warehouse driving a forklift for dick money. I do this for 6~ months or so.
I will do the next part picking up here. I make an unusual style return to poker. It is a great story imo and things get more positive.

Part 8 (has access to parts 1-7 in it)
For some reason it would not post the last day or so.
It is early 2017. I have been carrying on my usual playing 10-20 hours a week to survive. Still lethargic is best term I suppose. I just dont get excited to play anymore. I consider getting a job to remind me how shitty working is so it gives me a kick in the teeth to play poker. Then it dawns on me, I hate playing poker now.
Poker has been tainted. Everything bad that happened to me I can associate with poker. The rise and fall was poker (the fall part). The oxycontin started as a performance enhancer to log more hours. Everything I consider to be wrong in my life I trace back to poker essentially, even if just a butterfly affect reason that had I done something else I wouldnt be here.
Hating poker is not the greatest realization considering its my only means to income outside of grunt labor. I seek a job in a couple places to no avail which was fine, I didnt wanna do that either.
Several months earlier I had started playing on SWC (bitcoin site) and became familiarized with bitcoin. Thought nothing of it, it was just the currency I was winning or losing. I dont read a thing about it, I learn nothing of it. I wasnt playing a ton or even big stakes, my intention for playing online was to just stay sharp in case it ever comes back full fledge. I have 5-6 btc on this site at the most (2-3k) and I flush it playing plo and big o not thinking much of it.
Back to 2017. Its March/April~ of 2017. I am playing cards one night dicking around probably had a couple drinks and was needling the usuals etc. A guy I do not know is in the game. Looks Russian. I bet he interfered in our election... fucking commies. I dont remember how I got to talking to him but crypto had been brought up. I talk about SWC. Tell him I had a few btc but not anymore. The only other thing I remember well from the conversation was bitching about going from an iphone4 (yes I had an iphone4 from 2010-17, the same one. It barely worked. Many oxycontins snorted off the back of that phone, texts dating back to when I got it in 2010) to the 6 or 7 or wtfever I have now, which is bigger and its harder to text and drive. He just responds by saying “first world problems are the worst”. Amen brother, those Africans and Venezuelans have no clue of our struggle.
I end up talking to him a bit and it turns out he mines crypto. Has a website that sells mining equipment. He has a hell of a back story too. I tell him I am interested in mining. I have about 20k to my name at this time and I realized recently that I dont like playing poker so why not? He eventually tells me not to do it. Regardless we become friends and he is ultimately the most important friend I have ever made. I have made more positive strides mentally since meeting him (mostly work ethic, realizations, reality checks and aspirations) As silly as it sounds, when he told me “first world problems are the worst” it stuck with me. He was saying it as a joke but jokes are funniest when true. He is genuinely the smartest guy I have ever associated with also. If you run into him at a poker table youd think he was a high functioning autist. Then you talk to him and go “ohhh hes just one of those Einstein type geniuses”. His hair is usually a mess, he cuts his own hair for or has his girlfriend do it. He wears cheap clothing usually since it all covers your ass or nipples I suppose. He virtually never instigates conversation with people he doesnt know. He is really deliberate with his actions. Talks really calmly and knows exactly what he is saying. He is just on the same level at all times it seems.
Meeting him has definitely changed my life for the better. We become friends pretty quickly. I know I went on a downer after meeting him because I couldnt afford to buy mining stuff and remember wanting to (again, he told me not to do it eventually anyways).
Which will lead me to another good friend to have. Between 2015 and this point in 2017 I have shot myself in the foot not logging hours a couple times. A friend has bailed me out with a loan or short term stake a few times. He is a well off restaurant owner who loves poker more than just about anything not related to him. Every time I see him we talk about hands he played and he just eats it up, has photographic memory and never butchers a hand history which is nice. He is as good hearted of a guy as I have ever met. (Sorry if this is getting long winded giving praise to people close to me, I intend on sharing with a few people and would like them to know what they mean to me as corny as that is because I suck at doing it in real life. Plus it is kinda gay to get mushy sounding in real life, but I digress. Theyve heard virtually none of the content of this whole thread either, a ton of this stuff I have never shared) In fact he is too kind hearted. He has helped people who wouldnt piss on him if he was on fire, and people have burned him on many occasions. My only complaint about this person is he never kicked my ass and told me to log more hours or fuck off. I needed it. If I just logged hours I wouldnt need the help. Its as simple as that. I have no leaks other than the unwillingness to play (leaks as in drugs/pit games/strippers/wtf ever else) and it has hindered me immensely over the these last couple years. (Ok I do have one embarrassing leak that has been fixed for a year and change, mobile games... I have spent like 30,000$ on mobile games between late 2016 and late 2018, Lords Mobile specifically clocked me for 20k. This definitely hindered my ability to build a roll and got me into a few jams. When youre not logging hours playing youre sitting around gaming and these games arent cheap obviously)
It is around May now and my friend who messes with crypto tells me that Bitcoin is going to 10,000$. Its like 800$ at the time iirc. I own a couple from Ignition cashouts. I kind of trust him. I cant argue him on it as I have literally no mental fortitude on the subject, but I essentially shrug it off. I start watching the price on poloniex and am watching prices jump like crazy. Light bulb in head! I can buy the dips sell the peaks and have more BTC! Lets load the 2.5btc I have onto poloniex! Sell peak but it keeps climbing... “FUCK! gotta get it back before it goes to 10k! Whew. Still have 2.45 BTC. FUCK! Its dropping! Get it out before it goes to zero!”
Yea I turned that 2.5 BTC into .4 BTC. No joke. I think I ended up throwing it onto SWC and losing it once it was almost gone. I honestly forget. I had nothing when it finally hit 20k other than some shit alts worth about 800$ at most (worth 35$ now but they still reside in my locked poloniex account, maybe I will give poloniex my ID if they ever become worth more than 1k)
So I am now annoyed I didnt turn every free dollar I had into BTC. I didnt trust the guy enough and to be fair I would have been using the money I play with. Had I met the guy a year earlier (know what I know of him now) I would probably have just locked it all up and sat around waiting.
I never really get my act together in 2017. I continuously log just enough hours to get by. I just dont care. I just want a way out of this. I catch myself saying “I hate playing poker” and sometime around the end of 17 or early 2018 I start trying to censor myself and quit saying that. Saying it will only make it fester deeper. I have to retrain myself to love poker. I remember the days of playing 18-24 hours straight because I love playing. I love watching for everything I can find to get an edge. I love a situation to present itself where I can step out of line. But now I just sit down and count the minutes before I can tell myself “way to go! You put in an 8 hour shift lets pack it in!” I leave good games often times. I celebrate when games break. This is where I am mentally while I play. I cant break out of it.
Late in 2017 a close friend of mine passes away. Will call him J. He was the guy who gave me a place to stay after the shutdown in Joplin. I was still doing oxy and he never once touched the stuff knowing what has happened to me. He doesnt judge me, he is somewhat of an enabler I suppose. He just drinks does shitty coke sometimes and has a script of adderol and xanax. Literally never once does he do any with me (ive warned him xanax and opiates will kill you if you mix, which is likely part of the reason he never did it) He was a marginal poker player (relative to modern game, he was just good enough to beat the rake live but he had too many pit leaks) and took great pride in being my friend (I was the slayer in the area for years leading up to this, anyone considered the best in their area can relate, you just have the respect of the local poker community). One of my earlier live poker memories involved him. I am like 18 or 19 playing a 1-2 game at a small casino and he was there with a friend. They were the good players in the game at the time. They were having a few drinks eating nice food and laughing having a good time. I remember thinking that I want this lifestyle. Care free gambling fast paced lifestyle. I had told him this story years later and he just ate it up, constantly tried to get me to rebound, but as I have stated many many times in the last few of these I have basically waved my white flag and accepted the result of my fall.
Anyhow after living with him we always talk every few months at minimal and have something to eat when we see each other at the casino. He was somewhat disingenuous sounding he was so nice and honestly it got to a point it started rubbing me the wrong way. I still talk to him of course but less frequently. In December of 2017 I get a phone call from my friend who owns the restaurant and he is distraught. He has been at the hospital and J has passed away. The back story on this is he had gotten a phone call from old friend who was getting out of prison in Arizona with no where to go (a female). J being as nice a guy as he is drives the 20+ hours to get her and gives her a place to stay. Well shes a junky and actually convinces J to do opiates/heroin. He overdoses and dies. I hadnt talked to him in a few months. I regret it. Had I known I would have beaten him senseless and got him to quit before things actually get bad.
Going to his funeral hit me up side the head too. The way I started feeling he was disingenuous just got destroyed. I cant fathom as many people showing up to my funeral with as nice of things to say. I wrote something to say but opt out after a few people say everything I had written (except better). I regret not saying them anyways. I think I still have what I wrote tucked away with the card and his money clip that made its way to me. I stumbled across his casino players card in a box one day and it resides in my wallet ever since. This was the first close friend that has passed away in my life, knock on wood. It woke me up a bit and caused a lot of self reflection because I felt I had let him down. I lived a few miles from him and didnt drop in to see him, didnt stay in contact as well as I should have. All because I felt he was disingenuously nice when he was actually just nice, which is actually because I am a cynical hermit who hates social life these days. That was the real reason I didnt stay closer. Him being too nice was just my excuse to blow him off essentially.
Only other thing I can add is that chick he helped out didnt even go to his funeral and on top of that had tried to take his truck and clean his house out. Junkies are the worst. I was a junky but I proudly say I never robbed anyone or cost anyone anything other than emotional distress, which isnt much of a brag obviously.
2018 starts and I have been decreasing my methadone every week for about 3-4 months now. I am on a low dose. Makes sleeping at night hard (get restless legs and sneezy). So I am having a few drinks any time I am at the casino playing (still just two days a week for the most part) to help get through those late night sessions when its worn off and I feel crummy. I get down to 15mg then 10mg and in March of 2018 I get asked if I wanna work for a week with my crypto friend. His friend is setting up a farm with 500 miners and needs help. I agree. The pay is in excess of the work (in my opinion) at 3k and I have no expenses, but I dont argue obviously. Before we leave town I have to pick up my week of methadone (at 4mg now) and so I do that. I never take any of them, I have the box still. Never opened it. They remain at my apartment as a reminder, the box carrying the 6 doses and a stack of receipts for every 75$ week that I kept in the box, several years worth, at least 9-10k worth of receipts, and that shits CHEAP compared to oxy. So I am finally off of opiates. I take kratom still but its essentially non addictive in comparison. Ill cede that I am reliant on kratom but if it disappeared tomorrow I wouldnt panic, I would be fine.
So I fly to Denver with my friend and meet his friends half brother who was instructed to rent a box truck and the three of us were to drive from Denver to Washington carrying like half a million dollars worth of hardware. Its early March, the roads arent exactly great. Half brother of his friend rents a truck with no middle seat though. Its absolutely miserable. Whoever sat middle was sitting like a fem boy legs closed and knees up high from the drive shaft hump. It was un fucking real how uncomfortable the middle was. So like I stated the roads were not great, we drove on ice for 5-6 hours straight (while my crypto friend did about 30 minutes of it before I decided I value my life and banned him from driving, he was literally doing over 70 on this ice sheet when I checked the gauge. I forget what he said, I will fail to make it sound as good but he said that he is protected and can not die, if we wreck he wont get hurt because of some universe stipulation that protects him. He said we would get hurt but he wouldnt. *** Ok here is what he said.
“quantum immortality. if i die in this universe, my conciousness will shift to others where i am still alive”
He just couldnt assure us ours would.
I end up driving like 18 of the 24 (one shot) hours it took as letting crypto friend drive was out. We make it set up a farm over a couple days then we go to Vegas. Not only do we go to Vegas but we fly a private jet. Not only do we take a private jet but his buddy has all four of us our own room at the Bellagio for 5-6 days. I remember having a 4500$ win at Bellagios 500$ cap 2-5 game... ran pretty salty. I only remember one hand worth bringing up, but I closed action and called 400$ pre with 67o with 3 others all in. Just flop 77X and send me the money. (Was drinking, gamble gamble). I cold called that also, some fish had opened massive and a 300$ stack just ripped a 400$ stack rejammed and I had called out of bb knowing fish will call off his 400~. This is actually a leak I have in poker. I will go over it because it has history.
Dating back to online my biggest leak was playing vs short stacks. Everyones biggest leak obv (6m setting). There were a few min buyers on Carbon and I got to the point I put them in pre every time they opened my bb from button, so long as they opened 75%+ from button or close to it. This has carried with me live, if I can gamble 3-4 ways (4 specifically) I will basically do it any time its 100bb~ or less with about 40% of hands if I can close action safely. I am a bit of a degenerate in this sense. I will flip for 1k if I have 10k to my name. It mostly came as a way to loosen up tables (the flipping blind preflop) at my local casino with players who give action. I am pretty snug in general but I cant refuse a flip when it presents itself and I cant refuse a fun gamble with short stacks.
I spend the month in Vegas during WSOP and run absurdly bad. Lose every big pot I play it seems. Switch to PLO the last half of the month and go a week straight without tripling my buy in up at any point. Just insane. Looking back I play rather poorly in PLO. I have been spoiled with my PLO games back home (which have been dead for about a year) and could get away with playing 50% of hands and no one ever bet big draws or anything not the nuts basically. I didnt adjust at all is what the issue was. Was just a frustrating month.
So I return and take a stake from a friend. I barely play still. Same ole same ole.
The last thing I will cover for this section is an incident late in 2018. One of the girls who is the floor at my local casino takes kratom also, we talk about it a fair amount. She has some 10mg percocets (mini oxycontins essentially) she gives me two of them. I havent had one in several years. I have been off methadone for 6-8 months at the time. I am eager to feel what I felt all those years ago, having no tolerance. So I take them home even though I know I shouldnt.
I get home and take both of them. What transpires is almost depressing. It frustrates me to no end that I realized that I have no desire for these. It affirms that all the money I flushed wasnt about the high, it was about the not withdrawing. I basically stated this in an earlier post but this is the event that I learned this from. I dont even enjoy it. I just sink knowing that I gave my life away for these. I have never recovered thanks to pain killers. Never once after 2011 have I ever looked in the mirror and said “finally, I have finally recovered what I fucked off”.
I am going to finish this thread off on the next post most likely. It will likely be long and take me a while to compose as it will cover my current year, and put a bow on it. The story basically climaxes a couple posts back, these surely have slowly lost their luster but I will finish them anyways. Nothing exciting about hearing about a guy who can beat games but wont sit in the chair to do it. Its a bit more upbeat in 2019 though andd I feel my future is bright and redemption nears though. I dont think I would have written these if not for a change of mentality recently, so look forward to a positive summary next post.

It was always a question of when. Every man has his price and Floyd Mayweather knew that Conor McGregor, the most popular active combat sports athlete in the world, was the only one capable of meeting his demand.
What started as a rumor graduated to banter. Banter graduated to legitimate business discussions. And before we knew it we had Conor McGregor spurning whatever options he had in the UFC to enter the world of boxing.

Tale of the Tape

Floyd Mayweather	vs	Conor McGregor
49(26)-0	RECORD	21(18)-3 [MMA]
53%	KO %	75%
40	AGE	29
147 lbs	LAST 5 AVG WEIGHT	156.1 lbs
5'8"	HEIGHT	5'9"
72"	REACH	74"
Las Vegas, Nevada	HOMETOWN	Dublin, Ireland
5(0)-0	LAST 5	4(3)-1 [MMA]
-330	MONEYLINE*	+350
26(10)-0	IN LAS VEGAS	4(3)-1 [MMA]
3(2)-0	VS UNDEFEATED	2(2)-1 [MMA]
9(4)-0	VS SOUTHPAW
387	TOTAL RDS BOXED	0
1394(961)-211-43	TOTAL OPP. RECORD	249(187)-79 [MMA]
84%	TOTAL OPP. WIN %	76%
58%	OPP. KO %	57%

Accolades

Floyd Mayweather’s World Titles Won/Held

WBA super world welterweight title WBC super welterweight title x2 WBC welterweight title x2 IBF welterweight title WBO welterweight title WBC super lightweight title WBC lightweight title WBC super featherweight title

Mayweather’s Lineal Titles Held

Super featherweight champion (over Genaro Hernandez) Lightweight champion (over Jose Luis Castillo) Welterweight champion (over Carlos Baldomir) Super welterweight champion (over Canelo Alvarez) Welterweight champion (over Manny Pacquiao)

Conor McGregor's World Titles Won/Held

Cage Warriors lightweight title Cage Warriors featherweight title UFC featherweight title UFC lightweight title

How To Watch

Live

Mayweather-McGregor takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tickets are available through all the usual second hand sites.

TV

Country	Channel	Price	Time	Note
🇺🇸	Showtime PPV	$99.95	6PM PDT
🇬🇧	Sky Box Office	$19.95	2AM BST	In pounds
🇲🇽	Fox Sports 2	Free	6PM PDT
🇨🇦	Indigo	$99.99	6PM PDT	In canadians
🇦🇺	Main Event	$59.95	8/27 11AM AEST	In digeridoos
🇭🇺	Sport1	Free	4AM CEST
🇩🇪	DAZN	Free	3AM CET	Monthly cost
🇦🇹	DAZN	Free	3AM CET	Monthly cost
🇯🇵	DAZN	Free	8/27 10AM JST	Monthly cost
🇸🇪	Viaplay	499 kr	3AM CEST
🇵🇭	Sky PPV	p950	9AM PHT
🇫🇷	Canal+	$20	5AM CEST	Monthly cost
🇧🇪	Eleven PPV	$20	3AM CEST	In euros
🇧🇬	Mtel Sport 2	Free		Monthly cost
Latin America	Fox Premium	Depends	Depends	Check with your countries operator

Theaters

Fathom Events will be hosting Mayweather-McGregor in theaters around America. There are also theaters in Canada, but you'll need to google it.
Use this link to find a theater showing the fight near you

Online

Country	Site	Price	Note
🇺🇸	Showtime PPV	$99.95	All devices!!!! This will be produced by Showtime and you will get their commentary team.

Closed Circuit

You can purchase closed circuit tickets at the following hotels. You can purchase through Ticketmatster, at the MGM Resorts International Box Office (in-person), or call 800-745-3000. Note the price is $150 dollars.

• ARIA Resort & Casino
• Bellagio Resort & Casino
• MGM Grand Hotel & Casino
• Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino
• Monte Carlo Resort & Casino
• New York-New York Hotel & Casino
• Luxor Hotel and Casino
• Excalibur Hotel & Casino

Bars and Pubs

Use this site to search for US bars and restuarants showing the fight
Use this site to search for UK bars and pubs

Ring Walks

All times are local/pacific.

Estimated Start Time	Fight
6:05 PM	Andrew Tabiti vs Steve Cunningham
6:35 PM	Nathan Cleverly vs Badou Jack
7:20 PM	Gervonta Davis vs Francisco Fonseca
7:55 PM	Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor

PPV Undercard

• Gervonta Davis vs Francisco Fonseca - 12 round fight for Davis's IBF super featherweight title. Davis currently sits as possibly the best fighter in the world under the age of 23. Davis is fierce, aggressive, and packs power in both hands. While Fonseca is undefeated, it's likely he will be blown out quickly given massive jump in opponent skill he's taking. Fight Rating: Can't miss.
  
• Nathan Cleverly vs Badou Jack - 12 rounds fight for Cleverly's WBA light heavyweight title. Badou Jack's career has followed a Hollywood script. Pushed too hard early, knocked out in 1 round, and now he's risen to the top while learning from his mistakes. Jack is a gritty, blue collar fighter. There is nothing pretty about what he does, but he makes for great fights. Cleverly is a solid challenger, but a clear underdog. Fight Rating: Close to can't miss.
  
• Andrew Tabiti vs Steve Cunningham - 10 rounds in the cruiserweight division. Tabiti is a rising cruiserweight contender with explosive power. Cunningham is older and thus we have an age vs youth matchup on our hands. Fight Rating: Don't blink.
  

Pre-Fight Undercard

FOX will be airing a pre-fight card before the pay-per-view starts.

• Yordenis Ugas vs Thomas Dulorme - 10 rounds in the welterweight division. Ugas has 3 losses and with any luck he'd be undefeated. Ugas is tricky, he knows how to be rough, and he can be sublime with his counter-punching when he needs to be. Dulorme is still trying to pick up the pieces of a career that's never panned out and this could be a launching pad for Ugas to get into a title picture. Fight Rating: 3/5
  
• Juan Heraldez vs Jose Miguel Borrego - 10 rounds in the super lightweight division. This one is going to open up the festivities and has potential to steal the show. Heraldez is 27 and desperately needs to win to take the next step in his career while Borrego is just getting off the ground at 19. Fight Rating: 4/5
  

Pay-Per-View Statistics

One small note. UFC pay-per-views statistics come from Dave Meltzer, whereas boxing numbers are generated by the cable and satellite providers. After the WME-IMG deal, it was discovered that McGregor-Diaz did 1.301 which would be the highest number a UFC fight ever did despite the reports from many journalists. But I'll stick with what was reported out of respect for Dana White and his company for risking their necks on a lawsuit by making this fight. For more information on Meltzer, I recommend listening to Something to Wrestle With Bruce Prichard.
Top Pay-Per-View Purchases All Time

1. Floyd Mayweather vs Manny Pacquiao - 4,600,000
2. De La Hoya vs Mayweather – 2,400,000
3. Mayweather vs Alvarez – 2,200,000
4. Holyfield vs Tyson II – 1,990,000
5. Lewis vs Tyson – 1,970,000
6. Diaz vs McGregor II - 1,650,000
7. Lesnar vs Mir 2 – 1,600,000
8. Tyson vs Holyfield – 1,590,000
9. Tyson vs McNeeley – 1,550,000
10. Mayweather vs Cotto – 1,500,000
11. McGregor vs Diaz - 1,500,000

Top Ten Pay-Per-View Buyrates Beteween Mayweather-McGregor

1. Mayweather vs Pacquiao - 4,600,000
2. De La Hoya vs Mayweather – 2,400,000
3. Mayweather vs Alvarez – 2,200,000
4. Diaz vs McGregor II - 1,650,000
5. Mayweather vs Cotto – 1,500,000
6. McGregor vs Diaz 1,500,000
7. Aldo vs McGregor 1,400,000
8. Mayweather vs Mosley – 1,400,000
9. Alvarez vs McGregor - 1,300,000
10. Mayweather vs Ortiz – 1,250,000

Number of Mayweather Pay-Per-View Fights: 15
Total Mayweather Buys Generated: 19,595,000 Average Mayweather Buyrate: 1,306,000 Total Revenue Generated at $60 average price: $1,175,700,000 Average Pay-Per-View Revenue Generated: $78,380,000
Number of McGregor Pay-Per-View Fights: 5
Total McGregor Buys Generated: 6,675,000 Average McGregor Buyrate: 1,335,000 Total Revenue Generated at $60 average price: $400,500,000 Average Pay-Per-View Revenue Generated: $80,100,000
Combined
Total Combined Pay-Per-Views: 20 Total Buys Generated: 26,270,000 Average Combined Buyrate: 1,313,500 Average Combined Pay-Per-View Revenue Generated: $78,810,000
Total Combined Revenue Generated at an average price of $60 = $1,576,200,000
To have all televised and title fights synced with your calendar, please subscribe to the sunday puncher calendar. There is seriously no better or easier way to stay up-to-date with boxing. You'll never need to ask what time a fight starts or what channel you can catch it on again.

Previous Post: https://www.reddit.com/pokecomments/bg7xox/inside_boston_underground_poker_part_4_bubbles_in/
So there I was, walking to the Wynn craps table with about $38k in cash in my pocket. I was up $30k for the day in poker, but as always, I had to push my luck.
There's a table off to the side with only one player at it, while the rest of the tables are pretty packed. I prefer a relatively empty table, so I head over there. The guy at the table has weirdly colored chips in front of him, and I realize he's some mega-whale with over a million in chips in his rail. I walk up to the table and he stays sitting, staring into his rail of chips. The table is $100 minimum which is why no one else was there, and I buy in for $10k.
The guy is just starting a new roll, so I put $600 each 6 and 8 and $250 on the 5 and 9, and he instantly 7s out. I'm down $1700 already in about 3 minutes, shit.
I throw $100 on the line, throw a 6 on the come out and put $600 on the 8, $250 each 5 and 9 again. The other guy started the roll with $12k each 6 and 8, $10k each 5 and 9 and $5k each 4 and 10, plus $1000 each on the hardways. I end up going on an insane roll. I'm throwing hard 6s and 8s like crazy, the guy has pressed up to $5k each on the hard ways and $30k each 6 and 8, and I just keep rolling them. I'm pressing my bets as well, and I'm up like $20k plus I have my bets up to $1000 each 5 and 9 and $3000 each 6 and 8, and I'm still going. At one point I bounce one of the dice off the table, and the other guy turns his bets off, and I roll back to back hard 6s, so he missed out on $160,000 from those rolls, it was pretty sick.
I think in total I made something like $35k off of my roll, and the other guy made over a million. The sickest part was that he barely even looked up from his chips, and he never said a word to me or tipped the dealers at all. He went to the bathroom at one point and I made a comment to the dealers, and they said he was still down overall on the day... What a sicko.
I played for a bit longer and ended up with $90k in my pocket, a profit of over $52k in a couple of hours of craps. I went into the Wynn with $8k in the morning and was leaving with $90k about 12 hours later. It was absolutely insane. I walked outside to wait for my car at the valet, and I had stuffed all 9 of the $10k "straps" into the pockets of my jeans. My jeans were busting with all of the cash, and these old people who were waiting at the valet noticed it and were staring so hard, it was hilarious.
Between my cash, bank accounts and investments, I had about $350k to my name at that moment, less than 3 years after moving to Boston with a roll of around $1500. As you can imagine, I felt absolutely on top of the world. All kinds of thoughts ran through my head. Should I go buy a Porsche in cash? Should I listen to my mom and go to school in Santa Barbara, and use my money on a down payment on a house there?
What was certain was the first thing I should have done was taken a bunch of that cash to the bank and gotten it out of my degenerate hands. Instead I drove to the Bellagio, got a room, got some room service, and went to bed. I woke up in the morning and had lost the $90k at the craps table before lunch.
Now you might be thinking that this was the start of my spiral down, that I went and cashed out my investments, got it all in cash, and blew it all at the Bellagio craps tables, but that would have been too simple. Instead I went back to grinding $10/20nl like nothing had happened. I had lost 2 buyins, oh well.
I took a few more shots at juicy $25/50nl games that summer, and like the lucky asshole I was, I never had a losing session in the 5 I played of that game. The other 4 were all at Bellagio, and usually only ran because a couple of specific businessmen wanted to play. They were bad, the games were great, I was still on top of the world in terms of poker.
One session in particular stood out. I sat down with $10k and was on a roll again, running it up to over $20k within a couple of hours. I had maybe $24k in front of me and was the big stack at the table, it was early and there hadn't been too many rebuys yet, and in walks Viffer (David Peat). Viffer was apparently down a few buyins in Bobby's Room and only had enough for our game, so he sat in with $50k. Being the biggest stack at the table besides him, as well as a 21 year old dressed like a complete douche, Viffer instantly focused on me. He was sitting all the way across the table from me (I was in seat 3, he was in seat 8), but as he sat down he called across the table to me, "hey kid, ever lost a $50,000 pot before?". "Not yet, but I look forward to it!", I retorted. Not my greatest comeback ever, but oh well.
I continue working up a stack without playing any big pots with him, and I'm at close to $30k and Viffer is still around $50k when a big pot happens. Since it was a $25/50nl game with $100 dead on the button, a typical raise was $300-350. In this hand, UTG raised to $350, Viffer called from the CO or HJ, the button called, the SB called, and I woke up with KK in the BB. There's over $1500 in the pot already, so I make it $1500 total and everyone calls. There's over $7500 in the pot preflop. The flop comes KTx rainbow, and I'm trying to figure out how long I should wait before checking, and if I should ham it up, when instead the SB open jams for around $8000. I have nearly $20k behind, and I wasn't sure what to do. UTG had about $12k, Viffer had me covered, and the button had under $10k, so raising vs flatting only really mattered significantly vs Viffer. I decided he didn't have much that could have hit this flop strongly, I wasn't getting paid unless he had KT or obviously TT or bottom set, and I didn't want to let him have pot odds with QJ, so I just jammed. UTG snap folded and Viffer stared me down for a minute before folding, and the button folded as well. We didn't flip our cards up, and the turn came an A and Viffer cursed to himself. He admitted later to having AT. River came a blank and the SB flipped up QJo to ship the pot with his straight. Bye bye $24k pot.
I shake it off, I still have around $20k in front of me, and I run it up a bit once again, sitting with around $25k when I get into a big pot once again. This time I raise to $300 with J9s from the CO and one of the donkey businessmen that the games run because of reraised from the blinds up to $900. I called the $600 more, he had around $13k in his stack to start. The flop comes QJ9 and I'm loving life again. He could have QQ, but JJ is unlikely since I have one, and I had only seen him 3 bet once in around 4 hours. Great chance he had an overpair. He instantly bet out $1500 into the $2000 or so pot, and I reraised to $4000, he went all in pretty quickly, and after a little bit of thought I made the call and he proudly flipped up KK. He had a decent number of outs with his gutshot, another K or a Q giving him the pot, but instead the board ran out 5, 5 to give him higher 2 pair in a different way. Bye bye $26k pot.
Those were 2 of the biggest pots I had ever played where it actually went to showdown and I hadn't gone all in with 100% to win. I had around 62% equity with the J9 and 74% with the KK, so it was a less than 10% chance for me to lose both. I ended up leaving the table up $7k, which was awesome after having lost my only 2 all ins for the night, but I was feeling negative, and of course went to the craps table. I lost my $7k profit and went home even for the day.
Another of the biggest pots I ever played was actually at $10/20nl at the Wynn vs another pro who liked to try to make huge bluffs sometimes and had a habit of overthinking stuff in my opinion. I was sitting with over $15k from $8k in buyins, and was having a pretty great session overall, and the other pro had around $10k. I don't remember the action nearly as well in this hand as the others, but I had KTss in a 3bet multiway pot to the flop, and it came KT7 with 2 hearts. Someone bet, the other pro raised, I 3bet, the original better flatted, the other pro 4bet for like 40% of his stack, I shoved, the original raiser folded after tanking, and the pro went into the tank hard. Now this was a guy whose game I respected. He was facing a bet of another $5500 to win a pot of about $23000. When he went into the tank, I figured he had a non-nut flush draw and was trying to figure out if I had some pair and higher flush draw combos or nut flush draws in my range where he'd be way behind. He tanked for nearly 5 minutes and eventually called, the board ran out A, 5 and he said "you've probably got me". I turned over my KT and he goes "oh holy shit I figured you had a set!" and turn over A5hh. I'm not sure why he tanked so long getting over 3:1 with a nut flush draw, even if he put me on only sets, he still had the odds to call, and I'm playing QJhh and 98hh the same way, hands he is ahead of. I didn't mind losing 2 pair vs flush draw as much as I minded that he had me convinced I was good with his tank, and then even more when he said "you've probably got me". I had to leave the game because I was close to tilt after that one.
The WSOP ended and the games dried up a bit. There were still $10/20nl games going at Bellagio usually, but with more grinders and fewer donks per table. Throughout the post- WSOP summer, many of my friends came out to party, and I spent a lot of time with Ashley, growing closer with her. At the end of the summer I decided not to stay in Vegas full time, moving to Berkeley, California, near my hometown and where several of my friends went to university. I played some of the juicy $5/10nl and $10/20nl games in the Bay Area with a medium amount of success, and partied a bunch with friends in frats at Cal. I made lots of trips out to Vegas, usually just for degenerate gambling and not a ton of poker. I had taken some losses in the market, but was still sitting with around $300k between cash, accounts and investments. When Bank of America dipped in November, I bought some for under $12. I still had Jetblue stock which wasn't doing great, and a handful of other stocks which were all struggling in the bear market, but I was convinced it would turn around.
My host at the Bellagio was always inviting me to special events, and 2 stood out. A $1 million freeroll heads up blackjack tournament was the first. It was 128 players, so nearly $10k in value. If you won your first 3 rounds, you were in the money and guaranteed $50k. After dominating my first 2 opponents who knew very little about blackjack tournament strategy, I was feeling confident. Blackjack tournament strategy is very different than normal blackjack strategy since your objective is to beat your opponent, not the dealer, and there are weird rules like blackjack paying 2 to 1. There are a set number of hands you play, and whomever has the most money after those hands wins. My first opponent went broke, so I automatically won that. My 2nd opponent just bet small every time, and didn't compensate when I took a lead, so on the final hand he didn't even give himself a chance to win with his bet.
My third opponent was semi competent, he at least knew basic blackjack strategy, but his betting was wrong and he still played as if he was trying to win chips from the dealer, not merely outplay me. I managed to make it so that on the 25th and final hand of our game, if both me and my opponent won the hand, I won, if both me and my opponent lost the hand, I won. Outside of making it impossible for them to win at all, which is very hard with correct strategy, this is about all you can ask of in a blackjack tournament. Me and my opponent both received face cards first, a great sign for me. For my 2nd card I received another face card, great news, until my opponent was dealt an A and got paid 2 to 1. My only chance was to split my face cards and try my luck to still end up on top, but it didn't work out and my opponent was the winner.
A few months later I was invited to a free $1 million poker tournament. This was it, my ultimate chance. It was 100 invited players only and based on pit and slot play, not anything to do with poker. It was going to be me vs a bunch of degens without any poker skill! The time for the big tournament came, and there was a twist. There were actually 110 players, 10 of whom were MGM executives and had cash bounties on their heads between $1000-$10k depending on their level at the company. They couldn't cash the tournament, they were just there to have fun and add a wrinkle to the game.
I easily navigated the field to start, although someone else at my table got the $2k bounty for knocking out our MGM employee. As the tournament progressed, it became clear the structure wasn't great, especially with so many inexperienced players taking a long time to make decisions. We were down to about 14 players including 2 executives left. Once only 10 real players were left, all of the executives remaining would be removed and their bounties would be put into the regular prize pool. Top 10 got paid, so there were essentially 12 left plus 2 fake players. I don't remember the action too well for this hand either, but I believe I was about 30 bbs deep to start the hand and raised with AJ from the button and got called by both blinds. The big blind was a $5000 bounty and she only had about 5bbs left after the call. The flop came KJ4 and they both checked, and I bet the 5bbs that the bounty had left. They both called. Turn came a T and after the other guy checked, and I thought I had him beat, so I went all in for the remaining 20 or so bbs. The SB tanked and was talking about how he really wanted the bounty. He ended up calling, he had about 1bb behind, and we all showed our hands. The SB had T9 with no flush draw, and the bounty had QJ, so I was 81% to scoop the hand, and only 11% to bust. River T and I'm done. The worst part was that the guy who stacked me with T9, having called with just a gutshot on the flop, managed to lose all of his chips on the bubble and go out in 11th place. He got his $5k cash bounty though...
The stock market continued to crash, and I went harder and harder in on the stocks I thought would bounce back, still investing on margin. Eventually I lost it all in February/March of 2009 when Bank of America stock dropped to $3. I had bought in more at $7, then even more at $5, and when the margin call came in I lost nearly $200k just on that one stock. My average buy price was a mere $6 since I had bought in huge at $5. If I had been able to pay the margin call and hang on, by August of 2009 my 50k+ shares would have netted me a profit of over half a million dollars. Instead I was completely broke. My losses in the market for 2008 and 2009 were nearly $400,000, and I later found out my casino pit game losses were nearly $200,000. If I had been patient, diversified, not on margin, and kept out of the pit, I would have been a 22 year old millionaire. Instead I was busto.
I continued on in poker for several years after that, but unfortunately my persona of trying to seem like a rich kid wasting daddy's money had left me without many poker friends, and without many people who respected my game enough to stake me. I ended up turning to online SNGs and being moderate successful, but still lazy and not putting in the hours I should have. Ashley and I tried to make it work, but she wanted me to move out to Vegas for good, and I was afraid being in Vegas would end in disaster for me as I'd continue to waste a huge amount of money on gambling, money I no longer had. My high school sweetheart came back into my life at that point as well, and I pushed Ashley aside for nostalgia, ignoring the reasons the high school gf and I had broken up several times in the past. In the end, I wanted to be more serious than she did, and I haven't spoken to the high school ex in 10 years. Ashley moved on quickly as she always did, and already had a serious boyfriend by the time I came around and realized I wanted to be with her. She ended up becoming a stripper in Vegas, and the last time I saw her she was a bit of a mess. She moved out of Las Vegas these days and I think she's doing better, but we don't keep in close touch.
By Black Friday I had joined a good staking group and was successful at online SNGs, making a nice hourly, coaching other players, and generally doing well at poker, although in my personal life I was a mess after losing both girls I loved in close succession. After Black Friday I made several stupid mistakes, alienating my backers and many in the poker community. I paid everyone back in the end, but I knew I needed to get out of poker. I went back to college, met my wife and we've been together for nearly 7 years now. I now work as a financial adviser.
Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed my crazy life journey! Some other crazy stuff happened along the way that I might throw together at some point, but those are more Vegas party stories than much to do with poker.