Just draw your game. This way the 75 passes are almost guaranteed. Also, you'll go to penalties, and most certainly you'll have at least 2 attackers and 1 midfielder. et voilà! profit
Have a great week!

I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
 
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to.
Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547
I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can.
I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts.
Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T

Intro

• "The last month has convinced me, that we are going to be heading into a dark place for Counter-Strike esports in 2021."
  • "I think I've seen the scene essentially kill itself."
• "For the past 5 to 6 years, we've basically been in a holding pattern of people coming into our game wanting to run it, wanting to run all of the esports and wanting to profiteer and its been sort of a concerted effort to drive them off and push them away."
  • "We're spread way too thin."
• "If Riot don't get involved and stop the scumbags that have moved over to Valorant from getting their feet under the table, Valorant is going to have real problems."
• RL thinks too much has happened all at once for us to do anything except watch it play out, like:
  • Recent CSPPA strike against BLAST
  • ESIC failures and them not being supported enough
  • Teams cheating i.e. coaches/bugs
  • Widespread match fixing
  • The Pandemic
    • "People who try to hold bubble events are so incompetent and fuck up and people get the 'rona and its their fault."
    • "People who say Flashpoint is a bubble is full of shit and is a lie and people are now suffering for that lie."
      • "To save money they let people go home and break the bubble for a week."
      • "Not just Flashpoint peoples decision, they have a partner that handles the production." (hinting FACEIT)
      • "People are trapped in hotels essentially under house arrest because of COVID restrictions and has fucked peoples lives up."
• "It's all too much, all of this incompetence, all of this greed, maybe we ride it out."
  • RL says he has talked to the Riot devs (the ones working on Valorant) and says, "They are so cognizant of all the fuck ups and all the problems we have in Counter-Strike."
    • He continues to say that this is factored into their business plan and that we never had a competitor, but just so happens to have one coincide, when we are at our worst.

CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association

"Who does this union really fucking serve?"

• RL believes that the CSPPA is a mockery.
  
  • He points out the hypocrisy that they wouldn't strike for the pros who were kicked out of ESL Pro League, or for Jamppi or dream3r.
    • He also says ESL paid CSPPA and are racketeering and many other TOs have to pay them to get their "seal of approval"
      • He says they would strong-arm TOs saying "well if you don't give us the money, these guys are so we'll just have to commit to playing their event."
    • Also points out that they will strike against a competitor they are not in agreement with (Flashpoint)
    • RL: "It's what it says about every other time you haven't done it and it's about every time you don't do it now moving forward." "The issues they've chosen to ignore this year alone are embarrassing."
    • Then he points out that there was no strike for Valve qualifiers even if we have no major but Jamppi and dream3r can't play in them.
      • "and Valve have said 'Oh yeah we know actually their stories are accurate, Jamppi didn't cheat, now in a legally binding document. Yep dream3r did have his account hacked in a LAN café', but they still can't play. Where is the fucking solidarity? Gone. Doesn't exist. It's not important [because] it doesn't affect you." "That's what the union does right now, it looks after all the tier 1 people."
• He says the CSPPA doesn't represent all players all the time and has driven a divide where you have the haves and have-nots
  
  • "We have a tier of players that operate with impunity and do not help their tier 2 or tier 3 players out at all." "If you are not a tier 1 player you do not matter, they don't event ask your opinion."
  • He tells chrisJ to admit and own the fact that the reason he didn't speak up during the ESL Pro League debacle is because it didn't affect him
  • "They are looking after some players at the expense of other players. How the fuck is that a union?"
• He says the BLAST situation is a reasonable dispute and supports the players but is not the right time for a strike and have not even identified the correct enemy
  
  • He thinks players are lashing out now due to previous incidents and are upset that BLAST are working with ESIC
    • He stated that CSPPA shouldn't beefing with ESIC and they should be working in harmony
  • He says what they need to do is talk with the teams/organizations that have sold that right to BLAST
    • RL: "Your employers, the people who pay you that massive exorbitant salaries, when you don't stream and you don't do interviews and you offer no value beyond your ability to click heads and you get 25k dollars a month." "Why don't you talk to them about it? Oh right. You're happy to take away BLAST's paper, but you don't want to risk your own."
  • "I am seeing such unbelievable cowardice from the players here with the battles you choose."
  • "Where was the strike action when in the qualifiers for the world championship, there were teams and players engaged in huge conflicts of interest?" "Where was the strike action when your image rights were taken and sold to every league you've ever been in every union type organization you've ever been associated with like, WESA, to your org every time you sign a contract, to the leagues you play in."
    • "Your image rights are essentially worthless now, there's about 10 fucking separate parties that have them, and how many of them are giving you anything for it? Not much pretty much your org by the way."
    • "That's a big issue. Your image is you, your image is your brand. What are you doing about that? Nothing."
• He is also angry at SirScoots who is "popping off" at people on Twitter who all want the same thing, which is 'A unified Counter-Strike scene for everybody, that works for everybody, that has a sustained ecosystem that nourishes everybody.' "We don't have that now."
  
• He also says their rankings are a joke
  
  • "Just so happened, oh look TACO, that very important prominent member of the board, we pushed his team artificially up when they weren't even in the fucking top 20, not by a long shot."
• He also says the ineptitude of the CSPPA cost Flashpoint a monitor sponsor
  
• "Is it really a player association or is it like a fucking agency at this point"
  

ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission

"They have been put in an impossible position."

• RL says that Ian Smith, the founder of ESIC and who was done work in mainstream sports, is a good and honorable man who has dedicated his life to integrity and sports. He takes on both sides, ensuring match fixers are punished, but also doing appeals and ensuring those punishments were fair.
• "ESIC is a tiny organization" and are in need of money, "They didn't run a grift like the CSPPA did."
  • "Saying 'you want our support and you want the players to turn up you better pay us.' They don't do that."
  • "Had startup seed money from MTG and since then they've been pecking shit with the hens."
    • Ian Smith made sure that the money given by MTG (Modern Times Group, parent company of ESL, ESEA, DreamHack) was nothing more than startup money and wouldn't be in debt to them
      • Ian Smith sat down with other TO's not part of MTG and wanted to partner with them. They declined and called ESIC "ESL spies and we will never align ourselves with you"
  • "They only were just able to afford, hiring a PR guy on a full time salary to deal with the press and send out those releases you've seen, this year."
    • "They have a tiny group of staff investigating these things and they have taken on the biggest problems in our scene: the cheating, the match fixing."
• ESIC have had "unprecedented levels of cheating to deal with, because there's something wrong with our scene ever since we went online. There's something wrong with it, everyone's lost their fucking pride and self-respect and they got no passion for it anymore, so they think fuck it, what's in it for me?"
  • He calls out coaches who are talking about players rights when they would rob and steal from them.
    • Also says more coaches being banned are coming
    • He also points out flaws in community's reaction to the punishments to coaches bans: "Half of the cunts still have jobs and some of the cunts got new jobs. We didn't even shun the cheating coaches."
• ESIC have "found I think another 2 or 3 exploits like that one and they are investigating them all right now, it's going on right now."
  
  • "I know that there are going to be more names getting banned, again."
  • "So they're doing that on a skeleton crew while, investigating 3 continents worth of match fixing in MDL and semi-pro level CS." "They're doing this with half a dozen people." "They don't have any money or any help. People barely even fucking cooperate with them, they are treated like pariahs. It's ridiculous."
    • "Why are the CSPPA popping off at ESIC on my Twitter timeline, when you should be working together." "because its all about what's in it in for me." "2020, the online era of CS: 'What is in it for me?' How can I cheat, how can I get my paper, how can I bleed this scene one last time before I fuck off and play shooty shooty bang bang Riot Games babys first fps."
• RL says that in the CIS region, teams have gone to tournaments and have been eliminated multiple times by the same team. We found out they were cheating and those players who lost, have been cut from their roster, careers ended because of cheaters.
  

Stream Sniping

"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"

• RL talks about how there is no integrity from dead (the player), always denying when caught doing something
  • On the topic of 'BLAST never said we couldn't stream snipe': "Lies, BLAST never said you could do that, they had to sort of retcon it." "because what happened after that they fucking started snitching and squealing"
    • "Suddenly you had like, 10 of the top 15 teams in the world, staring into the abyss of being banned for 6-12 months in line with ESIC recommendations."
      • He says that ESIC was put in a tough situation and couldn't enforce the bans because it would have resulted in killing CS. What resulted was, BLAST, ESIC, and teams came together and gave them a warning and told them, in RL's words "don't do this again or you're gonna get got."
        • He then says the top teams brushed this off and didn't give a fuck
        • The new MiBR team playing Flashpoint, that wasn't involved in the previous incidents are doing it again (stream sniping). He gave credit to Flashpoint for the quick resolution and punishment and respect for cogu's response to the situation.
        • "ESIC came out and said, once more, 'Guys, zero tolerance from now on.'" RL then got upset at community's reaction calling ESIC "pussies" for their non enforcement and said if we want competitive CS we cant ban the top 10 teams.
• He points out how players have no integrity and will do anything for an edge as long as they won't get detected or banned or it's within a grey area.
• "All of this shit was mad avoidable, even in the pandemic era."
  • He talks about why aren't we filming them. Why aren't there representatives for leagues and tournaments making sure players aren't cheating?

Match Fixing

"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."

• RL says that gambling and skins betting which existed in moderation was "accelerated and blown up by the Call of Duty greedy fucks."
  • "Never forget TmarTn was on the board of EnVyUs." "His website, CSGOLotto, they had a bunch of off-the-books sponsorships." "NBK promoted them. People forget."
• "Those people who had access to the skins, go to the players" "Even people like s1mple, best player in the world, even he scammed knives and skins off fucking fans."
• Owners of skin casino sites would approach pros and lend them skins to use in tournaments and possibly keep them after reaching a deal
  • Players would tip off inside info about matches and teams in exchange for skins. Info such as: roster changes, how they played in scrims
    • They would use this info to bet and subvert the odds on their sites. "That happened religiously, I can't even tell you how many times it happened."
      • "I had access to the biggest database of information, from an inside betting circle in NA, and it would take information and screenshots from other pro players, who were feeding them info in exchange for money or skins."
        • "Some of these players are still playing." "Incredibly, there are players still in the CSPPA today, complaining about the BLAST recordings, that were embroiled in this murky shit back then."
• RL also says that there were tournaments where teams contrived with each other, who should throw, who should win.
• "There's a handful of people that are trying to fucking clean it up, and you think you get something over the line and you see something like the CSPPA and it's run by corrupt fucking chuckle heads, and now you've got another corrupt body you have to fight on a fucking daily basis, it's demoralizing."
  • "It's too far gone. Our entire semi-professional scene is compromised."
• "It's rife guys, I'm not going to lie any more. It's not just China, it's not just Russia, it's here, it's NA, it's Europe, it's Australia, so much more than you think, so much more than we can prove."
  • "I get sent chat logs all the time […] and they're morons, these players, short-sighted, amateur, morons and they're doing it on WhatsApp." People would get cut from the bets because they want to make more money, then they leak the logs. He says, from the chat logs, they spread "little" bets across every site they can (400 to 1k dollars) to prevent shifting odds
• He says the scumbags who've fucked off to Valorant will do the same there if Riot doesn't do something and says Valorant "is an esports scene heading for a very early fall based on the sheer volume of scumbags that are already there."
• "That's tier 2 CS in a nutshell these days. They know they're never going to play in a major, so what's the punishment?"
  • "All of these tier 2 fucks that are fixing games now they are like the fucking mafia compared to iBuyPower" "These guys are working with organized criminals to fix entire seasons worth of games. That's what's going on in your tier 2 CS."
• "I'm literally being told that there are players fixing games at all levels of Chinese esports and motherfuckers with guns are turning up to team houses and stuff."

North America

"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."

• RL says the Call of Duty "goblins" that destroyed CS for years are the same people who are now trying to leave CS. "The nerve to treat a game where the fans, and the community, and the TO's were nothing but good to you." "To just kick the players out now and go and leave and say 'It just doesn't make financial sense.' Oh you'll slither back when we have a major though for them stickers won't you."
• There's a cascading effect in NA where people don't bother with CS anymore and people like Chaos suffer.
• He says NA team owners are incompetent for always wanting it easy and always wanting a guarantee on their investment without skill or nuance.
  • RL says he would be able to market a team correctly and would have a good ROI and also points out how TSM wouldn't even be bothered to tweet that their team, which was one of the best in the world, was playing at the Major.
  • He also says not all NA owners are like that, compliments and respects Jason Lake who nearly lost everything to keep Complexity going.
• He then calls out the incompetence in Infinite Esports when they acquired OpTic Gaming and bought an Indian CS team.
  • He says HECZ is not to blame here and that they couldn't tell forsaken was cheating when it was so obvious.
    • They measured his reaction time to the likes of dev1ce and s1mple
    • When an enemy showed up on his screen he won that duel something like 44% of the time
    • "was like the number 1 player in the world statistically"
    • He brought a laptop to their bootcamp and refused to use the high end PCs that hey provided
• He respects Andy Miller (NRG CEO) and HECZ but says that the attitude of not being able to easily monetize their teams is "piss weak" and there needs to be a risk.
  • He says Chaos EC shouldn't be cutting their roster and should be competent enough to be able to figure out how to make money off their team.
• He says there are still opportunities in NA and people are panicking and pulling out, and says Valorant will be the same if not worse.
  • He also says "bums" who couldn't even get out of groups in NA competitions, are making crazy money in Valorant and says it will continue to inflate.
• He also said that he heard rumors that EG (Evil Geniuses) are done.
• He also thinks that the rumors of a Valve franchised league from before was sparked up from "these lazy fabled weak NA fucking team owners basically trying to see if Valve would bite at the hook if it was dangled and they didn't"
  • Slasher says NA team owners are really in favor of franchised leagues because they want to make more money. "Most of the powerful team owners right now are on board with ditching this third party organization structure, or they are trying to play this power politics with all the TOs, and that is contributing to a lot of the problems there"
• RL says that Riot has proved they can run a franchised league (LCS) and will be profitable in 2021 which is what a lot of team owners care about and says the competition will only serve to snatch people away from CS.
• RL continues to say, "I am so sick and tired of what we have done to this scene, I am just exhausted with it." "I think we have legitimately fucked it, I really think we have. I think we're staring into almost like a CGS (Championship Gaming Series) wasteland in NA." "Counter-Strike esports is a fucking joke."

Talent

"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."

• RL says that people like Sean Gares and ddk switching over to Valorant isn't for financial reasons because they are making less over there.
• He points out that TO's can't even give talent a 3 month in advance calendar.
• Because of the pandemic TO's won't hire certain people and some people are working more hours for the same money.
• He says we as a community don't respect journalists enough which is why we don't have good journalists.
  • He also says DeKay is leaving the scene soon and that Thorin is close to leaving also
• He says he had to talk a caster down from quitting and was struggling to find reasons.
• He says that DreamHack told Vince they would hire him but not if he wants to stick with dusT and says that this is the norm in esports. "Constant leveraging of people against each other." and says this is why we don't have a talent union.
• New gen casters are getting put into shit situations and the community's reaction to them is adding fuel to the fire
• He says the reason Moses left was because of the terrible conditions
• He says that Anders had to constantly leave his family and kid because someone fucked up or broke promises and had to constantly tell his kid to their face that "daddy can't be home this weekend."
• He says that esports has always been a lie to sell you this dream, "Meanwhile there's about 2% of the cunts getting all the checks."

Valve

"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"

• Slasher says that the larger aspect of esports as a whole compared to other entertainment mediums and Valve's lack of inattention are the bigger problems. He continues saying that the fact that Valve let their game be ran as an esport, they need to take on the responsibilities of it.
  • Both Slasher and RL wants Valve to take control but not on the level of Riot Games, there needs to be a balance.
• In case it was ever a question: Gabe Newell has been to 0 CSGO Majors.
• RL calls Valve out saying they could have done something during the gambling era.
• He says Valve used to come to the majors, but doesn't think they do anymore.
• RL had met with Valve at the Cluj-Napoca Major and had tried to appeal iBP's indefinite punishment and had also gave Brax's life story:
  • A recent family member passed away, they had lost a lot of income, they had to live in trailer, iBuyPower did not pay any salaries, and was pressured by family to make money who didn't support his career.
  • RL said that Valve told him, "How dare you try and make us feel guilty." "We shouldn't feel bad about enforcing the only thing that matters that we need to make players afraid of: cheating and match fixing"
  • RL also tried to share other info about match fixing and nothing came of it
• RL points out that Source 2 or a new engine is not something you will want based on the experience of transitioning from CS 1.6 to CS:S. "Valve's track record with brand new engines being launched, not fucking great from what I remember."
• Slasher says "If there is anything the community should do, is pressure Valve to hire a community manager."
  • They say that we need a commissioner, a community manager (not the person who runs the Twitter who posts memes all day), then we need to have a circuit
• RL reiterates that Valve doesn't care about CS esports and says they need to change the culture at Valve to make them care about CS esports
  • Slasher says a systemic problem is making it so working on CSGO would be a bad decision for you as an employee for Valve
• He also hasn't talked to Valve in ages and have sent over bugs and cheats and doesn't get emails back anymore
• Slasher says we should be directing attention at the developer leads, pointing out Ido Magal, if he even is still the project lead
  • RL thinks that Ido and Brian are the only people that "vaguely even give a fuck about CS" and were the only people that RL recalled that actually read Reddit and paid attention from time to time
• "It is really fucking precarious. Somebody has got to step the fuck up and start giving a shit"
  • Slasher suggests org owners, with CSPPA, with ESIC, with TOs have a concerted effort against Valve
• "Riot Games are doing better things than Valve in the esports space" which is something RL didn't think he'd say.
• "People who used to be talent, working with unions, arguing with other talent, when the unions fucked them over, can't understand their perspective, TOs fucking over broadcast talent, broadcast talent wanting to leave and go and work for orgs, orgs having no money, Valve might take coaches away because all the coaches are cheating, ESIC has about 4 people in a fucking call doing the investigations, everyone thinks they're spies for ESL, ESL are just the evil fucking overlords wanting to rule the scene and will just somehow, like cockroaches outliving a nuclear bomb, and Valve are in a fucking holiday in Hawaii thinking about the next Dota character because they don't give a fuck about us."

Closing Statements

"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."

• RL compared the Counter-Strike scene to the people on the Titanic who ran around with guns robbing people while the boat was sinking.
• "We have given up on being a respectable esports scene." "We are now a conduit to make money for those who want to just milk it, just have one last ride, one last roll of the dice. It's done." "What a fucking mess. What have we done to our fucking scene?"
• "There's just too much self-interest driving all of this." "I don't see a way we stop the dominoes." "When it's that bad, when there's that many dishonest people that ESIC have to come out and say that if we punish them all there's no one left. What does that tell you?"
• "How many opportunities have we had to clean house? How many times have we said, 'this must never happen again', and another scandal." "The entire skins betting operations was the biggest criminal conspiracy in esports ever executed and no one has been punished for it." "The people who could be driving that don't want to."
• "Right now people are fans of those organizations because the scene has value. It is worth being a fan of Astralis because they are excellent at Counter-Strike. It is worth being a fan of s1mple because he is the best player in Counter-Strike, maybe the exception of ZywOo. If the scene is devalued, if the scene loses its meaning, those things lose its meaning too, and people will leave, people will stop tuning into the games. I have seen it happen in multiple esports, this is not my first time at the rodeo. I am getting big Brood War vibes right now and I don't like it."
• "The role you play in all of this as fans, as viewers, as listeners, as consumers of esports content, it's absolutely imperative that you know who the good guys are. It's absolutely imperative that you use your voice. It's absolutely imperative that when things are bad, you know who, at least, is trying to make them good, and you have to apply your criticism to the right targets."
  • He continues saying it's no good in continuing to attack ESIC and saying how they are bad, ESIC have it hard
• He says CSPPA are on the right side of the argument on BLAST but have been on the wrong side of many arguments many times.
  • "If you are not willing to stand along side the weakest member of the union, with the least amount of influence, and the least amount of power, then it is not a union at all and you shouldn't pose as one." "You wanna serve a bunch of special interest do it, everyone else in esports fucking does, but do not pose as something you are not." "We love the players. I've been fighting for players rights for as long as I've been able to, but the CSPPA is not what we needed."
    • "They are not applying the pressure to the right people, they are not fighting the right battles, they are not helping their weaker members."
• He says what orgs have done by keeping or hiring coaches is bad. "When you give up on holding an appreciable standard, you've lost the scene" "Competition matters, rules matter, punishments matter, achievements matter, excellence matters" "If you start stripping that away, you have nothing" "You guys need to take that knowledge and apply it sensibly."
• "Valve has sold you all down the river, they sold everyone in the esports scene down the river, tournament organizers are selling their talent down the river. Don't hate on them for sounding tired after a 16 hour day. Don't hate on them because the hype for a matchup they've seen for the 20th time in the past 3 months, they can't be as excited or it sounds contrived. Support your guys, they're there for you, these are your people."
• "This community has got to start acting like one for the first fucking time. Just put the petty shit away, let's try and fix this fucking scene while we still have one to save."
• "You can't rely on Valve, you can't rely on ESL, you can't rely on the CSPPA, you can't rely on anyone." "Once again, it's gonna be the likes of us, the amateurs, the people who give a fuck, rolling up our sleeves and grafting." "I'm old and tired and I don't want to have to do it again. People need to pick up the torch and do it."
  • "Like Michal did, like Dudenhoeffer did. You see something wrong, fix it. You see somebody doing something wrong, call it out. If you think something could be better, let people know."
• "Vote with your wallets if you're not happy with the direction Valve goes in. If when we do get to the Major, they serve up another subpar, same old bullshit stickers and signatures package again, do not buy it."
  • "You're a powerful block and if you use it correctly we can fucking avert this disaster."
• "I'm not doing another year in this broken, bust-up fucking scene, where everyone is miserable, everyone is broke, everyone is tired, and everyone is trying to fucking rob everyone else, blind, while the fucking people who are meant to be protecting you, are just fucking enhancing it and lining their own pockets."
  • "I'm not doing it anymore and you shouldn't want to do it either."
• "I stand by every fucking thing I said. I mean it, because this game fucking matters to me, this scene fucking matters to me. I put my life into this, my adult life, and to see it in this state is fucking sad."

Hello /Vancouver,
What a trip last week. Introduced a spinoff series called Vancouver Murder Chronicles, and then on Saturday at 3am I posted fresh drama regarding Eastside Boxing Club. That makes 4 articles I’ve posted in a week, and since I don’t have a set schedule for these, ensure you keep an eye out because you never know when one gets posted.
Matchstick Coffee was a highly requested topic for the VDC. Going in, I knew very little about it. I’m not a coffee drinker, the only experience with coffee I have is the Nesspresso I bought on Black Friday last year. While I started doing researching for the article, I thought about making a trip to one of the five Matchstick cafes in Vancouver to try it out, but that would require me to leave my bunker.
A commenter asked me if it was possible to support a business that fucked up and listed Matchstick as an example. The quick answer, and to save you reading the next 2,200 words is yes. I think it’s totally okay to support Matchstick Coffee, and spoilers… HOT TAKE ALERT I don’t think Spencer Viehweger is a evil person, I think he’s just a horrible owner and product of the coffee culture.
TLDR: Matchstick Coffee posted a statement on Instagram saying they value their employees and respect them. Former employees spoke up about their abusive experiences working for owner Spencer Viehweger. Spencer & his wife, Annie, step down from their positions at Matchstick Coffee. Now the chain of coffee cafes are run by an entirely new group.
Too Long, Want to Read:
Passion - A brief history of Matchstick
I spent two hours trying to come up with a pretentious summary to match the beautiful poetic prose in the About Us section on Matchstick’s website. This is what I’ve come up with in those two hours…

• Have you ever cracked a matchstick from a book of matches? Drag it across the rough sandpaper to bring an instantaneous inferno between your fingers to life? It’s a satisfying moment when you compare it to pulling out a lighter and lighting it. That’s what the co-founders of Matchstick Coffee are getting at when you compare their coffee to the rest, a pleasureful satisfying experience in contract to a world of cheap plastic lighters (Tim Hortons).
  
• As a writer, I’ve made fun of writers who write in coffee shops. The attention whoring of please ask me what I’m writing about seems so… Netflix RomCom. But I would gladly write in a Matchstick coffee shop, hell, I’m writing this in a Matchstick coffee shop right now. Alright, I’m not, but I would’ve loved to. The hype around each shop’s unique décor and atmosphere makes me want to write and have some angelheaded hipster ask me what I’m writing, only to look into her coloured contact eyes and tell her, *”Go away.”
  

Whichever one you like, use it. I spent a few hours on it, I’m not deleting it. The point is, Matchstick Coffee lived up to its reputation as one of the best coffee shops in Vancouver (Yes, Bon Appétit link was on purpose, I like to think businesses who mistreat workers like to stick together). Now? It’s not even mentioned as a contender for Vancouver’s best coffee because of the controversy last year with ex-owners Spencer & Annie Viehweger. It’s pretty impressive when you can’t even buy your way onto a Daily Hive top 10 list… because of their journalistic integrity.
What happened? As someone who recaps drama, I like to think it’s the following…

• Pasion: Spencer Viehweger is passionate about coffee. He competed in the Canadian National Barista Championships in 2008 & 2009 and talks about the ”process” of making coffee extensively in interviews. Reading complaints, articles, and interviews, Spencer was a workaholic who needed to be a part of everything Matchstick Coffee. Workaholics who haven’t had the proper manager training are more likely to power trip and hold vendettas in the workplace.
  
• Expectations: It’s expected for Matchstick to do well. They were pegged as the next big thing in the Vancouver Coffee scene, with good reason. Aaron Braun (Who left the company a year later in 2013), Spencer & Annie Viehweger opened Matchstick after having years of experience working with some of Vancouver’s successful coffee chains such as JJ Bean, Crema, and Elysian. The expectations of success didn’t stop there. Whenever they opened up a new café? HYPE ARTICLE. They lived up to the expectations by continuously finding themselves on the top 10 lists of coffee places in Vancouver…
  
• Growth: Matchstick opened in 2012, and the Viehwegars became sole owners in 2013. By 2020 they opened 4 additional locations (Chinatown, Riley Park, Yaletown, and Davie), a handful of Matchstick Mobile cafes, and the Viehwegars had two children. This was rapid growth for the Viehwegars both personally and professionally.
  
• Coffee Culture: The Service Industry is fucking horrible, especially for worker’s rights. It’s an entry level position for young people that don’t know their own rights or worth for employment. Case in point? /Vancouver. How many questions do we see monthly about Workers/Renter’s rights? Knowledge is power, and our ignorance is the reason we get taken advantage of. Even if these young workers knew their rights, chances are they don’t have the time, evidence or resources to dispute these claims in a timely fashion. This was the industry Spencer learned from since his time at JJ Bean. It’s not an excuse, but I wanted to highlight this is an industry problem of mistreatment.
  

Passion is a powerful trait to have as a leader, you inspire those around you to do better. But passion can turn toxic, especially when pressured to be the best when stretching yourself too thin. You become stressed, and when you’re stressed, you radiate that energy onto others around you, and suddenly passion can turn into intimidation. I fully believe Spencer & Annie had the best intentions when they started Matchstick, but in the end they didn’t have the experience of managing. Combined with the pressure and growing expansions of business/family, they leaned on the abusive experiences they’ve witnessed in the industry as common practice. Emotionally and professionally, Spencer didn’t know how to interact with those who are his subordinates.
One reason I say this is because in my professional career of ***** **** ***********, I have been that asshole manager. I have intimidated co-workers, and acted emotionally in the workplace. I’ve since worked on my soft skill communication and it’s no longer an issue. I think that’s why I emphasize with *Spencer, or at least say I don’t think he’s a terrible human being. It’s just insight from my personal experience, it’s not an excuse for his actions.
Before we get into Spencer, let’s talk about…
Baristas: Exploitable Workforce
In order to exploit a workforce, you need to have a desirable job. Why is everyone lining up to be a barista? It’s not the pay, benefits, or career opportunities, it’s the cool factor of working in a coffee shop. When did coffee shops become cool then?
I blame video games television. The early millennials grew up with a television culture that focused heavily on coffee culture.

• Friends often take place at Central Park coffee shop every episode.
• Frasier’s Café Nervosa.
• Gilmore Girls’ Luke’s Diner.

In the 1990s/2000s where the primary job for a young person was to go into retail or McDonalds, a job as a barista seemed cool. The job marketed heavily towards free spirited individuals with each coffee shop having its own unique feel/vibe. It was better than flipping burgers and ringing up customers, and you can say you worked at a hipster coffee shop like Starbucks or Matchstick.
I’m going off topic here, but essentially coffee shops became a popular alternative for young workers, and the entire industry has exploited that. This isn’t just a Matchstick problem, it existed long before Matchstick and still exists today. I fully believe this is where Spencer unconsciously learned that it’s okay to be an asshole. It’s hard to notice something is wrong when all you know is a single industry. Starting as a worker, having a manager not correct him, and watching how other stores are run, I believe Spencer thought the way he acted was appropriate. A great example of this is crunch time. In the software development industry there is a period called crunch time where they’ll spend countless hours of overtime fixing bugs. That sounds fucking awful, doesn’t it? Well, believe it or not, it’s still a problem today because of people with the ideology of I went through it, we made great games, this is just part of the process are in charge. In short, they know it works, and that’s all they know. Similar to the coffee industry, managers know what they can get away with because they’ve experienced it and nobody has given them shit for it, until now.
Just like in software development, there have been movements for baristas to organize and stand together, but they failed to materialize and stick. Probably because of union busting or termination.
Now we understand everyone mistreats coffee house employees, it’s time to talk about 2020 and how they got their cummopence..
Spilling the Beans
BlackLivesMatter is a powerful movement, and it allowed silenced voices to speak up about the injustices around the world. From the rise of the #MeToo movement in wrestling to the protests in the United States, voices and stories about oppression everywhere was being told. Including baristas, it happened all over the world.
For Matchstick Coffee though, it started with an Instagram post talking about their values on July 1st. A week later, Leah Christ was like, Nah and posted her story on social media. It’s a story about Leah’s experiences with Spencer Viehweger as a manipulative boss who doesn’t know how to act rationally and professionally. Here are some things she called out specifically:

• Spencer has a terrible temperament, he’s hard to read if he’s in a good mood or foul mood.
• Spencer was very argumentative.
• Was offered a raise, but was told it would take away from someone else’s paycheck.
• Brought up racism to Spencer, and was told just act Switzerland about it.
• Bad experience with 1 on 1s, Spencer made them feel intimidating.

It was the opening salvo in what would be an onslaught of claims against Spencer. Soon after an Instagram called #NotOurMatchstick (Now, #notourcafes) posted a series of confessions about the abuse encountered. Here are some stories, that show how horrible Spencer & Annie Viehweger were as owners.
Even with all of those horrible stories, I believe Spencer Viehweger isn’t a horrible person. He isn’t Nick Rabuchin who was blatantly threatening, racist, and purposely manipulative. Spencer is a product of an abusive coffee culture and terrible manager. He didn’t know how to delegate, trust his employees, and manage people. As Matchstick grew in success, this led to more stress and him lashing out at everyone around him. Again, this isn’t an excuse, just trying to hypothesize why he’s so terrible.
Here are some examples of what I’m talking about:

• Former co-worker of Spencer from JJ Bean: Clearly doesn’t know how to talk to his subordinates, JJ Bean probably should’ve caught that in his entire time working there. What’s not cool for sure is the weird hand on knee touching.
• Someone speaking on how Spencer is always hands on: Failure to delegate properly.
• Multiple people explaining he denies vacations/time off: Holding his employees up to his own work ethic, which is a typical bad manager mistake for a bunch of young adults. It’s not their business, it’s yours. Of course you’re going to work harder than them.
• Misogynistic claim about Women can’t be Roasters: Roasters is a male-dominated field, this is an industry issue. Spencer’s weird spiritual believe/philosophy can also play to it.
• Wage/Understaffed: As discussed in the Baristas: Exploitable Workforce this is an industry problem.

So, how did Matchstick handle the controversy?
Apology & Action Items
Spencer released an apology on Instagram within a day or two of the accusations. In the apology he stated:

• Spencer & Annie Viehweger stepped away from the company.
• Divested themselves of all shares in the company.
• Mentioned he’s seeking personal help, directly associated to his behaviour.
• Standard, I didn’t mean to hurt anyone.

Honestly, I thought this apology was good and authentic. He could’ve pulled a Vancouver Candle Company move and gave ownership to his wife, but they both stepped down. It also addressed he was seeking help for behaviour issues, not that he “completed watching a Ted Talk”.
Recently, Matchstick Coffee released a note on Instagram highlighting what they’ve been doing to be part of the community again.

• Working with local charities such as Vancouver Food Runners, Qmunity, and Rethos(?).
• New internal health plan for team members.
• Brought in diverse and inclusive voices to their operational team.
• Matchstick products are all fully compostable and locally sourced.
• Large portion of their “food waste” are now going to charities across Vancouver.

Not mentioned on Instagram, Matchstick is officially unionized. They’re members of the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1518.
Conclusion & Musings
To answer my question above, it is possible to support a business that’s been horrible. I think Spencer & Annie did the honourable thing and completely step away from the company (not true for Vancouver Candle Co), the new owners stepped in and turned it around.
I haven’t consumed anything from Matchstick, but I wouldn’t boycott them. Matchstick has turned it around. Business wise, supporting them is taking a stand against the old regime and coffee culture that oppresses our young workers.
Matchstick, please contact me so you can send me a check for this glowing recommendation – ”Your business fucked up, but you turned it around. Gold star.” (I’m an influencer now).
Note
Here is a comment made by someone about the current conditions of matchstick

Stumbled across this and had to chime in.. Matchstick has NOT "turned it around" and supporting them isn't sticking it to the "old regime". It's still just as toxic and crappy as ever and now this "new regime" is cutting corners left and right sacrificing quality and staff/customer safety to increase profits.
"new" owner is one of the old owners (2/3 owners sold their shares. 3rd owner now owns everything). It's just an investment for him. Matchstick is now run by a newly hired president and a board of the owner's inner circle along with store managers of varying levels of competency and tendencies to micromanage.
Spencer was horrible to lots of staff and literally no one is sad that he's gone. But none of the other problems with the company have been magically fixed.
Hours are being cut like mad with workload increasing. Quality down the drain. Training of new staff is a joke same with Covid protocol. Almost all long term staff left after Spencer and Annie left. Most fun to job is long gone.
There is no new "diverse and inclusive voice" to the operational team. Some of the managers are from the Spencer era and some are newly promoted. They don't speak for the staff, they speak for themselves. And laughable that it is being called diverse and inclusive.
Spencer is a big prick but so were a lot of the ex staff who had problems with him. Some of the ex staff who came forward were part of the problem too. Things didn't magically get better when he sold his shares.
This whole piece smells of something written by someone with no actual idea of what is going on within the company now.
Support Matchstick all you want but don't think you are sticking it to the old regime if you do. It's just making a old rich white guy even richer. Tip the staff well if you actually care about making things better.

More Drama?

• #01 – Chewies & Skinny Bitches
• #01.5 – Chewies Oyster Bar Update.
• #02 – Rio Theatre – Never Say Die
• #03 – Vancouver Candle Co
• #04 – Rio Part 2 – Sport Harder
• #05 – Eastside Boxing Club

Hey /Vancouver,
I can admit to when I'm wrong, and I totally deserve to be burned at the stake here.
I've reached out to a few people regarding their comments & Spencer to talk about him.
In short, I didn't mean to gloss over Spencer's actions as a manager. I apologize to people who work for him/matchstick, and I didn't mean to high level their trauma. I wanted to bring in a different perspective and bring up issues around the service industry as well. It was an articulated intertwined thing I thought I pulled off and I didn't.
I'm not going to edit my post though, because I'm not a revisionist.
Light the match, and watch me burn for my penance.

Hey guys, wanted to share a bit of my happiness today >w<
TLDR; I passed N1 (160/180) after 438 days of learning Japanese from zero, my secrets are just read a lot (especially VNs (Visual Novels), they are the BEST!!!), use Anki with AnimeCards, and be consistent.
​
My Journey:
First 6 months! (August 2019 - January 2020)
I started learning around the end of August 2019. I applied to Tohoku University in Japan for MEXT Undergraduate (for an International Aerospace Engineering course in English) and got accepted. This was the impetus to start learning Japanese, since I would be living in Japan for at least 4 years. I started by trying to find out good resources and methods of study. I came across Kanji Study on Android and used that for isolated kanji recognition study (10-20 new kanji/day in frequency order) and to keep track of my studying. This only worked for about 1000 kanji, because the English keywords stopped making sense and I didn’t really know any vocab examples or readings. I had a private tutor to help me push through the basics. We did like 10 meetings in my initial prep before I departed to Japan. I asked to skip all the hiragana/katakana rote memory stuff since I could learn that by myself. Instead, we talked about the basics of Japanese grammar and how to go about learning kanji.
We used Minna no Nihongo I for like 3 meetings but I got bored and suggested we go through grammar points by understanding sentences/texts with audio. She gave me an intermediate reading comprehension book with audio and we practiced listening, reading, and grammar. I didn't know a lot of kanji at the time but thanks to Kanji Study, I could at least recognize the kanji and the meaning of the text after discussing thoroughly with my tutor.
Tip #1: Speed run the basics (Hiragana, Katakana, common grammar points) and get to reading ASAP! Get used to Kanji but don't force yourself to individually learn kanji beyond a certain point (For me it was 1000-ish)
I departed to Japan at the end of September and upon arriving had no idea about anything. The listening practice barely helped me understand. It did let me (just barely) get what people were saying and I managed to get by, by speaking very basic sentences.
Whilst getting used to the new university life, I tried making Japanese friends and joining different circles. I came across a volunteer Obaachan group that would hold many events and I joined them often for conversation practice. This helped me recognize words in conversation better, although in hindsight this was probably inefficient since I didn't know many words yet.
I needed to take the JLPT, since I wanted to skip basic Japanese at my uni. I was worried that I would only be able to pass N5 (at the time of registering for the 2019 December JLPT). Turns out I passed, yey.
My daily study regime was about the same for the first 6 months. I learned to recognize 10-20 new kanji on Kanji Study, reviewed grammar rules, watched some Nihongo no Mori N3/N2 videos (they are great! Even for beginners!), and joined events with Japanese locals when I could.
My biggest achievement during this 6 month period was being invited to give a presentation in Japanese about my country, Indonesia, at a local middle school in Japanese (around the 4th-month mark). I made the slides using the limited kanji knowledge I had and practiced for the presentation, which I feel went pretty well. I made one major mistake: I mistook the kanji for “uniform”, writing in the slide title (IN VERY BIG FONT): インドネシアの征服 [TL: Conquest of Indonesia] (it should be インドネシアの制服 (TL: Indonesian Uniforms (笑 lol))
​
6 months to 1 Year (February 2020 - August 2020)
I thought that I had done pretty well in my first 6 months, especially since I could now hold basic conversations with the local obaachans and I knew like 1000 kanji based on Kanji Study (No, I did not know 1000 kanji. I merely recognize the meaning and was an idiot for thinking so.). But that changed when I came across a Discord server through AnimeCards that completely changed my language learning habits.
When I first arrived on the server, I could barely pass the N4 vocab quiz and when I joined a VN reading stream, I could read nothing! I stumbled, misread kanji, didn’t even know a lot of words, and all in all, I didn't have a clue what was happening! But everyone seemed to be fine besides me lol. I had my ass handed to me, literally btfo’d.
The people there were welcoming, although they can be very cynical and sarcastic (still love you, bros!). When I asked how everyone was so good at reading and had such extensive kanji knowledge, the answer was always the same: read more, just read VNs. This was followed by slurs and being called a dekinai, which was a real shock to me! (cuz all the obaachans would be going 日本語上手! at the slightest sight of basic fluency). But thanks to this experience, I started to realize that Japanese is so much harder than I thought! Just by doing the N3 or N2 Kotoba Vocab Quiz, I clearly didn’t know many words. I was disillusioned by how bad I actually was: I couldn't even read basic texts without looking up words every few seconds. I always thought that the 常用漢字 (Joyo kanji) was more than enough to read any light novel or novel I wanted. I was shocked when the more senior members started talking about how native media (i.e., LNs, VNs, and Novels) are actually much harder, especially in Kanji, than the supposed end goal of JLPT (N1). I could only read and lurk in silence.
So, I looked into the anime cards guide and started doing Anki. Around March (the seventh month-mark) and started to read VNs (Nekopara). Nekopara was surprisingly easy for a beginner like me. I didn't know about Anki mining with Yomichan and gave up after Yomichan couldn't connect to Anki, until I finished Nekopara Vol.2. I had started to get a bit of confidence and decided to challenge my next VN. I started to read Island, I really struggled with it and had to look-up words every 2 or 3 sentences, but because the story was so interesting I managed to finish it after 2 or so months of reading. The first route, although quite simple now, really messed with my brain because I kept finding new kanji and new words to mine. (I have 1400 total cards mined from this amazing VN!)
Also, I would like to highlight that just after reading Island, I had already reached 2200 kanji from my previous 1000 kanji mark. (This excludes easy kanji, where I couldn’t find words to mine from). This was all in 2 months of reading Island (about 60 hours for me to finish). Sounds pretty crazy right? Essentially, going from N2 territory to N1 in that amount of time (of course, just the kanji/vocab). Island isn’t even considered a very hard VN by VN standards, although there were some pretty cool words I mined like 絨毯、邂逅、蹂躙、and 顰蹙! (Yes, I know these are quite common words (edit: somewhat common in VNs or Novels, definitely not in general, sorry hahaha), but for me at the time, these were intense!)
Besides reading VNs, I also watched quite a lot of anime with Japanese subtitles, mainly shows I had already seen with English subs. I recommend this as you already know the plotline and can easily match the new words, sentences, and dialogue to your understanding of the anime.
After my initial shock at how bad I was at reading and my new adventure into VNs, I started thinking about taking the JLPT. I was introduced to a nice obaachan volunteer tutor and we did some JLPT practices together. At that time I apparently could already pass N1 although very ギリギリ (got about 105-110 on some mock-tests we tried), so I decided to apply for the 2020 July JLPT. Sadly, it was cancelled because of Corona. But on the bright side, I had more time to prepare and could also read more VNs.
Starting from July, I began reading Dies Irae, after someone streamed the opening on DJT, which got me super excited to try it. It's quite notorious for being hard and very long (it's super long, alright!). But I really liked the premise. Long story short, Dies Irae really hammered my reading ability with its super long exposition, hard vocab (yes, I’m looking at you 鬼哭啾啾, 鸚鵡返し, 箍を締める, 眦, 珊瑚 and friends), and the character Mercurius that kept talking so abstractly, it becomes easy to lose track whenever he goes into monologue mode.
Tip 2#: Don't be afraid to start hard, if that means you're enjoying what you're reading! Always challenge yourself with new things and try out whatever you feel looks interesting, especially when it comes to Visual Novels!
​
1 Year to JLPT N1(Aug 2020 - Dec 2020) [Final Touches]
For the N1 test, I used the Shinkanzen N1 Grammar and Dokkai books for practice (Highly recommended), Sou Matome N1 books for short review/references (meh, but did learn a few things), also watching Nihongo no Mori N1 grammar videos (Marvelously easy to set on 1.5x/2.0x and speed run through). I also stayed consistent with Anki reviews and VN reading (Although I did occasionally read some light novels; Hakomari is amazing guys, highly recommend!)
Although practicing for the N1 with Shinkanzen definitely helped me get a feel for the N1 format, what helped me most was reading VNs. VNs helped me so much with reading that I essentially had no problems with the actual N1. I continued reading Dies Irae until the N1 test and had happily mined 3500+ cards for a total of ~7000 cards with ~2900 kanji.
During the test, all my hard work came into fruition. I finished the first part (Vocab and Reading) of N1 with 25 minutes to spare (from 110 minutes) and I was 100% sure that I would get a perfect score on Reading (which I did, easily). Thank you visual novels, god bless you. I was just slightly confused about some of the vocab questions but I was still confident I would get 50+/60 at least (which I did).
For listening, I practiced with audiobooks and tried out the many free listening resources for N1 available on youtube. I'm actually a bit stunned I only got 45/60, since I thought I did very well on the listening: I only had 2 questions I felt confused about. I guess I still have a lot to learn!
And yes, I do acknowledge that the N1 is nowhere near the level of some native media. The VNs that I've read (Dies Irae especially) were much harder than the texts given in N1, although some of the answers in reading were quite tricky (but I knew what they were trying to trick me on, so it was ok).
Even while I was quite busy with my Engineering classes and keeping a relatively good grade for MEXT, I still tried my best to put in time for Anki reviews and reading. I don’t think there’s such a thing as having no time to study. You can always make time if you don’t mind setting priorities!
That being said, you still need to put a lot of time into Japanese to get to a high level. On top of my busy schedule, I would try to immerse 6-10 hours on weekends and holidays (may that be Anime, LNs, VNs, or light N1 practices), which helped boost my time with Japanese.
Tip #3: Use N1 practice books to get used to the questions, but don't depend on them. I believe that language should be acquired and to really get good at reading, you just have to read. I highly recommend Visual Novels since they have great context (image, audio, sentence) for mining cards, but also because they are quite dense and do force you to read. Of course, if you don't like VNs then that's fine, I just want to highlight how they have helped me so much to get better at reading and learning vocab until now.
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Present Day (January 2021 - Now)
So now that I’ve passed N1, what are my next goals?
I want to pass Kanken, preferably 2-kyuu. I'm currently studying using QM's Kanken Deck (An amazing deck btw) and the 3DS Kanken practice game. Although I’m still around Kanken Lv. 3 of the deck, the reading/memorization parts of the test are not that hard I believe, and I think it's more a matter of getting used to writing the kanji and practicing for the test. As such, depending on if I can pass consistently on the 3DS game, I will consider taking level pre-2 or level 2 of Kanken.
Also will retake the N1 sometime this year December or next year to get a full score (満点). I thought It would take at least 3-4 years, but apparently 2 years is probably enough for a full score!
Starting this February, I have a long 2-month break (pray for my final exams this week guys!), which I will use to the fullest to finish all my VNs (Kajiri Kamui Kagura, Grisaia Series, Muramasa, etc) I want to read and practice for Kanken. Also, I would like to practice pitch which I never bothered touching until now, since my accent isn't horrible (but not great either).
Closing:
All in all, these past 1.5 years have been amazing and I’m very happy to be able to enjoy anime series, light novels, and visual novels more with my continuous progress in Japanese. Although I could have specialized more on listening and gotten a better score, I do believe I have a pretty good balance between Reading, Listening, Speaking, and Writing.
I feel like now that there are better resources, especially the 2.3k Anki Core Deck for initial vocab/kanji study and Anacreon DJT MPV script for mining from videos (anime, Jdrama, movies, etc) easily, I could have probably studied more efficiently. So, If you guys haven’t checked these out or any other resources I’ve mentioned, please do!
Feel free to contact me through Discord (Doth#5403) if you have any questions or more preferably just ask the more seasoned people at the DJT server (Don’t ask simple stuff that can easily be googled, because this place isn’t really beginner friendly, but definitely houses some knowledgeable and helpful individuals!) or TheMoeWay server (More beginner friendly, pretty tame).
Caveats: cus I know people will probably try calling me out if not

1. I live in Japan and although I study Engineering in English, I still communicate with friends in Japanese. This has helped me build my listening skills, although my scores would beg to differ, hahaha.
2. I have a pretty good memory, so I never really had trouble adapting to Anki. I’ve heard about people who can never really get used to Anki reps and I personally think it’s a matter of settings, trial, and error.

Shout out specifically to my DJT discord bros (not 4chan, I never go on there) for helping me so much with getting into VNs which helped me get a great vocab score (55/60) and perfect reading score (60/60) ezpz. (QM and friends)
Also to my newly made friends on TheMoeWay, you guys are comfy and great! (Shoui and friends)
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Both have amazing guides which you should check at:
https://animecards.site/
https://learnjapanese.moe/
Image links:
JLPT History (N5-N1): https://imgur.com/gallery/u7m81sm
N1 Results: https://imgur.com/gallery/0abMEbj
Study Streak: https://imgur.com/gallery/PSb1xNc
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Edits: formatting, changing word usage lol, added a link to the VN guide since it is probably a new concept to a few viewers here. 顰蹙 is not that common, I just happen to see them quite a few times in the VNs I read. Don't want to misrepresent guys! But 蹂躙 is common, I knew it, wtf stop trying to gaslight me guys!!
Thanks for all the awards! Happy to see this post has been helpful for some people! :)

This day is a minefield. So many players in the men’s draw are lined up against very stylistically similar opponents, and while a ton of underdogs have a chance at winning, if both play their peak there are unlikely to be a lot of upsets today. Since tennis is tennis, this likely means there will be even more upsets as many athletes feel the pressure to win a safe one, but have to easy way to do so. Still time btw to join the Picking Competiton at AO Competition by the way. Free to join and some smol but nice cash prizes. They'll be running these for a lot of tournaments this year so feel free to check it out anytime. Working on the Women's now; I'll post the early matches first so they're up by gametime and add the rest as I finish them. 🐢
Djokovic Tiafoe : Looking at the first round scores this is going to be a great matchup. So just keeeeep looking at the scores. It’s tough to write anything about Novak Djokovic other than “he’s too good.” The guy has the personality of an almond, but he simply has worked his way to the top and despite the hard work of other younger players on tour, time spent winning makes good decisions and efficient tactics more of a muscle memory thing than a conscious decision thing, so the more intense the match gets the better he plays.
Tiafoe was almost bad enough to lose the first set to Travaglia, but eventually he managed to get the job done as Travaglia’s legs got more and more fatigued. I’m impressed he was even able to take the court after his contest with Sinner the night before, and it’s certainly not Tiafoe’s fault that his opponent was fatigued, so it was a well-deserved win. Tiafoe’s best chance at doing damage to Djokovic is to serve the lights out, and Djokovic covers the outwide serve (Tiafoe’s best from the ad side) so well that this is kinda an empty pursuit. Djokovic in 3.
Opelka Fritz : Opelka got the job done fairly easily in the first round, but Yen Hsun-Lu is not really a tour level player anymore. Fritz has frosted tips, and even though he’s a decade late, it’s a pretty good look. I am still endeavoring to say 3 positive things about Taylor Fritz in every post, and that counts as 2. The third is that he is likely to win this match.
Fritz has won most of their previous meetings, and even though he plays tennis like he’s more sleepy than hungry to win, he has an interesting combination of skills that make him a favorite. His serve doesn’t win him matches outright, but it’s a very easy motion and is good enough to get a lot of easy returns against Opelka. His offense during the rallies is mostly forehand offerings that aren’t clean winners, but these are good enough to get up high on Opelka can allow him to go for things he shouldn’t. Fritz’s backhand only goes one direction and is not offensive enough to really get him into good positions in the rally, but actually the best way to approach Opelka’s backhand is just to keep pushing the ball there and let him create his own offense. These things considered, Fritz should have a pretty good chance to hold serve most of the time, and shouldn’t have to press in rallies when he is able to return Opelka’s serve. That is the x-factor ultimately. Opelka’s serve is sometimes inconsistent but is one of the biggest on tour, and that coupled with Fritz’s cursed ability to be Taylor Fritz means that this could easily be decided in tiebreakers which tend to favor big servers. Fritz was abysmal last week against Chardy, and moderately decent against Ramos. Ramos is an excellent warmup though for your baseline game, and Fritz had to do a lot of good work and should be sharp for this one. Fritz in 4.
Wawrinka Fucsovics : Wawrinka looked businesslike in round one, which is refreshing. Pedro Sousa is the type of player who loses quickly though, and Stan’s round two opponent is the type who doesn’t do anything quickly. Marton Fucsovics brushes his teeth for 45 minutes in the morning while riding an exercise bike that plays Japanese lessons. While this goes on, he does crunches. There are few players on tour who could endure the hot nonsense bouncy performance that Marc Polmans put on in the first round. It really looked as if Fucsovics would never turn the tide and Polmans played great offense from start to finish. For a guy like Fucsovics, his mobility seemed to make this match a problem as he was content to retrieve in many rallies and rather than draw errors like he often does, it resulted in allowing Polmans to work the point without pressure.
The determining factor here will be Wawrinka errors. Fucsovics is a great defensive player with moderately effective offensive tools. He gets a bit slice-happy on his backhand but he keeps it low. His forehand doesn’t always have good length but against he keeps the ball low. His serve isn’t really about aces but about netting himself a return to work with. This means Wawrinka will have control of rallies, but needs to be patient in his approach to winning. The first shot is going to come back, and constructing the point will be essential. The backhands in the net and overcooked forehands will be a problem as it stretches on since he can lose confidence in both wings, but this is a guy with experience and a good record against Fucsovics (though the matches were close) so given Fucs’ struggles with Polmans, a fresh Wawrinka should eventually win here. Wawrinka in 5.
Moutet Raonic : Moutet and Milman had a really good spirited war. There’s something so refreshing about a unique tennis player, and Moutet’s game is really entertaining. The inside out forehand slice that he hits down the line at times costs him points, but it’s fun! The reckless charges to the net get him having to dive for pass, but they’re fun! Up next is the consumer of all fun, Milos Raonic. Usually I provide a list of things that Raonic looks like : the child of a gecko and some chewing gum, an eagle crossed with a pencil, a tree that wandered off, etc. Today though I’m just gonna talk tennis. Mr Raonic mad extremely quick work of Coria, and since last year was his first full year without major injury problems, and since he played well in every event, he has to be a heavy favorite here. Moutet is crafty, and his movement will make him an even prospect in most rallies, but getting into those rallies is tough, and since Moutet gets moved behind the baseline so easily, Raonic’s prowess at net is likely to get a lot of simple reps early and often. This is a trickier matchup in a first round, or at a smaller event. Moutet actually beat him at Doha last year as if to prove that. The small caveat to take away from that match is that Moutet does have the ability to hold serve against Raonic if he keeps the big man moving, or if he’s able to get an early break. Raonic is good for at least 1 completely poor service game per 3 sets, so I think Moutet will earn a set, but earning multiple sets in this format will prove a lot of work. Raonic in 4.
Ruusuvuori Martinez : This prince who was promised! Ruusuvuori has been coming in at absurd odds and losing for a while now. The final nail in the coffin was opening as a favorite against Monfils, and it looked for a while like these odds were slightly switched. In a similar contest to his match with Coric last week, Emil and Gael exchanged long rallies at the baseline and played a highly entertaining contest. This week though, Emil had a bit more belief and a bit more staying power.
An emotional Monfils gave a press conference after the match that surprised me for a few reasons. He said he felt like he was living in a nightmare and couldn’t escape. From watching him, he’s never really been 100% committed to grinding out wins on the court. He’s never been 100% healthy. He’s always laughing and entertaining the crowd. To turn around now and seem to be struggling and to act as if these losses are now troubling or unexpected kinda shows me that although he’s more human and less entertainer than his persona gives off at times, that he also could use some changes in coaching. I feel bad that Monfils is struggling to win matches, but someone should tell him that he’s aging, he’s had a brilliant career, and millions of fans love to watch him play. At a certain point, it’s time to enjoy the sport and not really be as results oriented. A win against Monfils is a great moment for Ruusuvuori. Being an ambassador doesn’t mean you stop winning, but it means you grow and are afforded perspective that allows you to enjoy your time while you’re in it. Younger players pass you by, and I’m not trying to belittle him for not realizing it, but he really was extremely dominant in a lot of his wins in the past despite not playing the most dedicated brand of tennis. Players are going to scout you and solve the equation. The more times you lose the more it’s going to happen unfortunately because when margins are as small as they are on the tour, belief is often paramount. I also might suggest that he’s only really been winning consistently on tour indoors of late, but that’s enough Gael bashing for one year. He has a great game, and is one of the most fun guys on tour to watch. It seems unfair that he was one of the last to realize that he is extremely inconsistent and loses matches he should sometimes win. As a bonus, if we manage to get “competes all out” Monfils as a result, that’ll be awesome to watch.
Pedro Martinez turned things around well against Nishioka, who continues to look to the sky for answers as matches that seem like they’re his get taken away. The problem for Nishioka was that he stopped dictating play. The same was Halys lost to Andujar, Nishioka lost to Martinez. Clay court players are not at their best on hardcourt, but only if the pace you bring to them is too much. Without a dominant serve, these guys get in the rally and they press small edges. They employ variety. They minimize errors. It’s a very easy thing to write off claycourters in hardcourt events but they notch upsets in every single one (except indoors).
This next matchup is great. I don’t see a lot to separate these two, but luckily they’ve played twice already and Ruusuvuori has won both matchups. An extremely generic way to judge a contest, but I really don’t see a way for either player to win easy points here as good as they both are from the baseline, so I am inclined to lean slightly towards Ruus. Martinez will be fresher, and has improved a great deal since their previous meeting. Working against Ruusuvuori is the Disneyland factor, and winning a 5 setter against a high profile opponent can leave you kinda flat in the next round as your brain decides “i’m this good now!” but your opponent does not seem interested. I’d give the nod here to Ruusuvuori still, because Monfils is a really difficult opponent compared to Nishioka and the odds and expectations placed on Ruusuvuori are the type that indicate he will continue to progress. He has a slightly better serve as well. Ruusuvuori in 5.
Bublik Lajovic : Bublik proved that angrily talking at the crowd in Russian is a highly effective tactic. He was in moderately sassy spirits against Aljaz Bedene, and it was almost like he knew the story going into the match was “Bedene will beat him because he will have lapses in concentration”. As a result, he really didn’t have any of those. Bublik executed his dropshots well, he served pretty good, and he really was solid from the baseline. The result was pressure on Bedene service games late in sets, and the errors came.
Lajovic had the tough time he was expected to with Stakhovsky. Time and time again Stakhovsky plays a young player on the challenger tour who’s expected to win and yet Stakhovsky hangs onto his serve and squeaks out a win. Lajovic did the Lajovic thing though and kept the ball in the court until he could find errors. Where Bedene failed, Lajovic will succeed? This really is a great 2nd round of matchups, because Bublik is likely to beat Lajovic the same way he beat Bedene. The formula is simple, but it depends on Bublik errors and Bublik mobility struggling. He was fit, and solid his first round. It would be strange if he wasn’t here, and if Lajovic struggled to break the Stakhovsky serve, Bublik is going to have a good chance at this one. Bublik in 4.
Mannarino Kecmanovic : Mannarino took a large chunk out of a lot of ppl’s bankrolls on Sunday. He was pretty error free from start to finish and he exposed Novak’s trouble on tour which is a lack of power. He’s a great player in a similar fashion to Fucsovics, but when he plays the better retrievers and better power hitters he struggles to win easy points. Mannarino has a way of looking so effortless while playing that it almost seems like his opponent needs to force offense. His problem is similarly power, and so it’s a good question if Kecmanovic has enough to clear this hurdle. Mannarino did beat him in their only previous meeting, but Kecmanovic has had some abysmal stretches on tour, and seems to be at his best right now. A straight sets beatdown of Majchrzak doesn’t mean a lot for 2nd round major implications, but he played a good match with Sinner last week and when he’s on his game, he’s a very promising baseliner. I don’t see a way to know what’s going to happen here. Mannarino is extremely difficult to hit through without a big serve or a huge forehand, and Kecmanovic is likely to give up errors but also take control of a lot of baseline rallies. When it’s over I’ll say “of course!” but going in this is a big question mark because of Kecmanovic’s recent surge in quality. I’m writing an article though, so hmm. Mannarino in 4 but the upset wouldn’t be too surprising here and Kecmanovic will likely give Zverev some trouble in the next round if he can get through this.
Cressy Zverev : Nice work for Cressy reversing that results against Daniel. Zverev struggled early but then seemed inevitable to win the match. This has been the formula for him since last year’s US Open. Perhaps he doesn’t warm up, or perhaps it’s just difficult for tall people to come out of the gate moving quickly, but Zverev is very flat and awkward in the first set, and then gradually opens up a bit. Since he’s such a heavy favorite, a lot of his opponents come in redlining and as Zverev’s level slightly increases and his errors get cleaned up as a result, his opponents can suddenly struggle to find easy points. Add in the Zverev serve which is inconsistent but huge, and he’s a real tough out in an early round. Cressy is entertaining, and can make a set close since his serve and volleying is frustrating and Zverev’s brain is made of cabbage, but this is one way traffic. Zverev in 3.
Thiem Koepfer : Kukushkin looked dangerous early, but Thiem kinda found his game as things went on, and his power is always there to draw on when things are tough. Koepfer is in the spot that he always is in. He’s a huge underdog, and doesn’t have much of a chance. As a result, I expect him to overperform. His offense is real, and he won’t make errors just because of the name on the other side of the net. Thiem will give you chances to play, and although he’s focused on winning, losing isn’t in his mind. This means that although there in an umpire, Thiem is not really keeping score. Losing a break going for the right shot doesn’t concern him, and similar to Federer he is not averse to going down a break and breaking right back. Being lefty is a decent advantage for Koepfer in dealing with Thiem’s backhand, but being short and dealing with the topspin on Thiem’s forehand will be a grind. I think Koepfer may steal a set, but this is probably optimism and fear of the sky falling. Thiem in 3-4.
Kyrgios Humbert : Man I don’t like Nick Kyrgios. I keep trying to but it’s so easy to wind up analyzing him when nobody asked me to. Against Ferreira Silva he missed a slice and immediately turned to his box to blurt out “get your girlfriend out of my box”. He missed another shot later and immediately shrieked “don’t sit in my box next time!” He’s worse than a child, because nothing is ever his fault. He’s the type of person who throws personal attacks at you if you correct them about some info they had wrong, and it is extremely uncomfortable watching him suffer his own mind. I think it’s pretty clear to everyone that Nick should go live with some goats for a while. Free, happy, in the mountains. Clean air, goats as far as the eye can see. And when Nick issues a complaint, he’ll get interrupted by “BWEHHHHH”. Wait is Rublev there? Or do goats make the same sound. Did he plagiarize goats? Possible. Whatever.
Kyrgios, despite being the person making a scene at a restaurant because the waiter made a mistake, is great at tennis. So great at tennis, that he pretty much improves with every match he plays in an event. That makes the next matchup very juicy. A mundane loss to Coric last week because he couldn’t hang in long rallies is likely to look similar to this contest, but playing a full tie with Ferreira Silva (a lefty who doesn’t really make errors) is the perfect warmup to play Humbert.
Humbert looked great in his first round against Uchiyama. He served well, he looked very comfortable in rallies, and there was no wavering emotion or struggle. He has one of the brightest futures in tennis, as he has built an excellent foundation of court coverage and simple composed offense. Add in that sometimes he serves amazing, and he is set to beat Kyrgios at his own game. Humbert’s speed will negate most of the dropshots, Humbert’s forehand is excellent at hitting passes on the run, and Humbert backhand is a half a target, but Kyrgios doesn’t really wear down his opponents in that sense. His forehand can flatten out and be amazing, but it’s a big whippy at times and doesn’t get through the court. In this contest I see Nick scoring a lot of easy points on his serve, but in the past week or so he hasn’t really shown the ability to dominate his opponents service games. Whoever wins the tiebreakers here will win, but it’s Kyrgious who will have to get to them. Humbert in 4-5. What strikes me as funny is that no matter who Kyrgios plays from this point on, it’s really hard to pick him as the eventual winner. The rest of the tour is dependable and Nick is a question mark. I look forward to the new Nick who returns from the goats with newfound wisdom.
Dimitrov Bolt : Grigorrrrrrrr. No blinking, no thinking. Dimitrov played well in his first round against Cilic, and served exceptionally well. It isn’t fair how they make the net higher than Cilic is used to, and he protested by hitting balls into the tape over and over. And over. It’s hard to watch a guy who’s so potentially dominant be 6 inches off on every shot, but it’s hard for the dude to gain confidence. Perhaps a trip to goat mountain? I wanted to take Dimitrov in the next round, but I also wanted to take Bolt. Alex Bolt gave Gombos a quick beatdown. Bolt has been a stalwart in the qualifying at the AO for a few years now but never really travelled on the tour. The points will start to add up if he does though, and he is a very sharp very capable offensive talent. Add in some exceptional speed, and you have a good recipe for an upset here.
The question marks, and there are some in most of the 2nd round contests on the men’s side, are Dimitrov’s level. Last week he played a great match against Popyrin, and then lost in straight sets to a crafty lefty in Moutet. This week, he plays a great match against Cilic, and now plays a craftier lefty in better form? It’s a bit of storytelling to say the results have to line up, and also picking Bolt to get the job done here is tough because last week he had the chance to beat Wawrinka (who is somewhat of a similar level of challenge to Dimitrov and somewhat similar in shot selection), and blinked. A super blink. So his question marks are when he has the opportunity, what happens? It’ll be tough against this new error-free Dimitrov, and Bolt’s errors can come in bunches when they do. I think he steals a set or two, but it’ll be a whole new level from Bolt if he gets through this, so even though I am a fan of Alex, Dimitrov gets the slight nod. Dimitrov in 5.
Vesely Carreño-Busta : Yay! Kimmer Coppejans was in pole position a number of times in that match, but Vesely is just a nonstop onslaught of heavy shots and offense. He really has found a form that was lacking for entire years on tour recently, and it’s refreshing. His next test though, is one I’m not sure he’ll get through. Vesely’s struggles have really come with errors in this stretch. Similar to Hurkacz, he’s swinging very free and against weaker opponents if he makes a good enough percentage, he wins. Against PCB, you need more than that. Pablo made pretty quick work of Kei, but not to be overlooked are how many times he got broken. This is pretty standard for Pablo, who seems about as likely to break his opponent when they’re serving for the set as he does to be broken himself in that spot. Overall though, he’s very consistent and doesn’t struggle against power, so this matchup is tough for Vesely to get through.
The Vesely serve is likely better than PCB, and that’ll need to be on for him to keep this close. Ultimately, I think he won’t win more than one set. PCB in 4.
Shapovalov Tomic : One last win for Shapo. Sinner’s performance on wobbly legs was insane against Travaglia, and to turn it around and almost beat Shapovalov the next day just adds to it. This was a match that I fully expected Sinner’s team to have him withdraw from. There will be plenty of Australian Opens in his future and risking injury playing overtired doesn’t seem sensible. Tell that to the kid who wobbled around between rallies while pretty much playing even with Shapovalov though. Jannik Sinner just doesn’t miss shots, and he has such a pure mind for tennis that he really injects depth, height, and angle at the same time. Denis did a good job to get through this, but was extremely lucky with the circumstances. I’m gonna say that was his last win against Sinner for a few years, and Sinner missed a backhand at 15 all in the 5th when he was looking like he’d break back that really was uncharacteristic. It was the first moment where I saw him kinda realize “oh i’m gonna win!” and that can lead to accelerating the swing too much. It’s similar to how hitting at a closing target can make u rush the ball there and end up missing. The way Shapovalov played was really impatient which served a good and bad purpose. One, he’s not a favorite in rallies against Sinner and Sinner was fatigued. On the other hand though, keeping rallies short made his error count really high and he had a lot of spots where he could have easily lost this match with an error instead of a winner or a double when he served a good second serve.
Anyway, Tomic got a withdrawal which is gross. Shapovalov in 3.
Duckworth Auger-Aliassime : James Duckworth plays hard. In the past he was given opportunities on tour and seemed like a pretty generic player, but I see the talent now. He has clearly been playing a ton of tennis and is hitting the ball very sharp. Dzumhur has kinda hovered off tour for a year now and it doesn’t look likely that he gets back on. He’s getting outworked and his attitude has never been the best on-court. FAA on the other hand has no attitude on-court. He’s pretty calm, composed, and seems incredible when he’s winning. Then come the problems though, and I think he’ll have some here. Duckworth is in no way shape or form a similar talent to FAA. He has to earn all his points the hard way, but he’s been pushing the pace and getting to net very frequently, and if anything is going to throw FAA off his game in this match, it’s that. FAA has timing issues here and there on his backhand, and when he’s struggling in the rally, his serve can go as well. Unfortunately, I can’t just predict a major implosion from a dude who’s played 2 good weeks of tennis already. I would never back FAA in this spot, but it would be the largest upset so far (sorry Mladenovic) if Duckworth pulled this off. He just doesn’t have the caliber of win in his pocket to say that he’ll do it. Still though, Duckworth is a funny name, and like you, I have always been moderately fond of ducks. FAA in 4 or a moderately momentous duck decision in 5.
Gerasimov Karatsev : Gerasimov finally edged out Paire, but it wasn’t very convincing. The awkwardly decided serving duel always seemed like Paire would go down, but it took quite some time. Even in a slump, his serve and backhand combo are extremely dangerous. Karatsev looked great against Mager, who never really had a look at winning a set. Opening Karatsev as a -180 favorite is going to make a lot of people confused, as Gerasimov is a household name for those following the tour closely and Karatsev has really only played in a handful of tour events and lost early. These two played recently though, and Karatsev beat him convincingly. There is a question of fatigue for the big ol Gerasimov as well, having played a bunch of good matches last week and a long one with Paire a night ago. I’m inclined to believe that this is a very close matchup, and I’ll take the fresher legs. Breaking Gerasimov multiple times is a tough test, but Karatsev did that previously. Karatsev in 4.
Muller Schwartzman : Muller went crazy on Londero. I tuned in after the first set and Muller was serving excellent, but also was leaning into backhand angles that didn’t really seem like they were there. The hope was he’d land somewhere in the draw where he could continue this run, but the young talent has drawn Diego “Cool Rappin Turtle” Schwartzman. Diego had a tougher time with Elias Ymer than his -5000 pricetag would indicate, and perhaps a good caveat to offer about tennis wagering is that no one on tour is -5000 against anyone. Everyone in the top 200 is an extremely talented player and given the opportunity can execute shots that are just plain effective. There is a level of offense possible with a tennis racquet where the opponent does not quite matter, and just because someone “should” win doesn’t mean that the work and focus necessary to complete the job isn’t taxing on them and difficult to produce. Djokovic/Nadal/Federer have been absurd outliers, but the rest of these guys can have bad days and a set of tennis can be a long grind but also is relatively short. The most frequent outcome in the sport is that the favorite wins but not as convincingly as oddsmakers project. This is because oddsmakers are not setting a prediction for the outcome (generally), but are estimating the $ investment that will come in on both sides of the event. If they balance that $ (they almost always do within reason), they pass the $ back and forth and take their fee. This is why books really don’t ever lose in the longterm.
Anyway, Schwartzman has a tough one here when Muller is on offense. Muller is a good server, and has very good composure on court. The problem for him is that this will take more work than any tennis match he has ever played. Diego is a guy who hits everything back, and constantly gives you very little to work with. I can clearly remember times where Diego was facing a dangerous offense and wasn’t at his sharpest, and he won those contests anyway. Schwartzman in 4.
Rublev Monteiro : If Yannick Hanfmann seemed ineffective, it’s only because of his opponent. Hanfmann is a great talent, and will be on tour for a while. Monteiro continued his great run against Martin, and now it’s just kinda over. He won’t struggle or fall apart in this match, but Rublev is just kinda at another level now. Rublev in 3.
Lopez Sonego : Lopez with a nice draw and a nice win. He’s always a threat to serve out a set and he has enough skill to earn errors, but here he plays Sonego who just got through Querrey in fine form. This is one where I’d think Lopez had a better chance in the first round but after seeing Sonego do well from the jump, he has to be a pretty good favorite here. Still a serving battle, so this could take a while. Sonego in 4-5.
Ruud Paul : Casper Ruud probably earned the retirement from Thompson, as he really was sharp in this match. He was sharp last week too, and it makes his match with Tommy Paul good quality to watch, but hard to predict. Paul won their only previous meeting, but Ruud has gotten worlds better since then. Paul has the serving game and offense to trade sets with most guys on hardcourt, and Ruud plays a bit generic at times which will allow Paul’s backhand down the line to create some damage, but I don’t see a way for Paul to win this match without putting on the kind of performance that will propel him well into the 4th round. Ruud in 4-5.
O’Connell Albot : These two won in similar fashion. Struff ran O’Connell all over the court, but the ball kept coming back. O’Connell got onto the tour by grinding out wins on the challenger circuit, and he hugs the baseline and reflects power better than a lot of guys on tour. He is a brilliant pusher, even though those words don’t sound like they belong together. Struff played fine and returned well, he just missed every last shot of every important rally.
Similarly, Albot outlasted RBA. The announcers discussed RBA trying to shorten the points, but he really has never done that in his career, and his backhand was actually awful in this one, as well as his movement. Add in that Radu Albot is an amazing human being and served extremely well, and you have a feelgood outcome.
I loved the way Albot played against RBA, but I don’t think he’ll win points as easily against O’Connell. I’m not sure really how he’ll win points at all, and I could say the same for O’Connell. In a match between two very fast and very consistent players, the winner is usually whoever has a bit more stamina. I oddly suspect it’s O’Connell. Forgive me, O’Connell in 4.
Harris Popyrin : What a good job by Harris in the first round of weathering the storm. Torpegaard was everywhere and was crushing the ball. Nonstop pressure and Harris really looked to be in trouble, but he kept the ball in the court until Torpegaard’s level dropped and then it was smooth sailing. Harris has had good success in Australia and even though he’s played the crowd-favorite in Popyrin, he has a good chance here. Popyrin beat Goffin in an amazing comeback. The crowd was loud and genuine, and Goffin just kinda got tired. He’s had some difficult outings since he had Covid, and there’s a good chance that his stamina/training are just not back to normal yet. The crowd cheering for Popyrin (who saved multiple match points in the 4th) actually made him smile. He sat on his bench after breaks smiling and just really happy and amazed at the moment, and I shed a couple turtle tears into the lake watching. A great moment for him, and he really has all the tools to go far on tour. The tough thing for him is deciding when to let the offense go. He has a tendency to play safe and them miss going for a big acceleration of pace. I’d like to see him go guns blazing from the start honestly, as his weapons are dangerous and his defense is subpar. The serve is great, and his match with Harris should be a bit of a shootout. Where I think Harris has the edge is in fitness. Goffin would have won the match if his level hadn’t dropped, and it actually started to just become Goffin spewing errors. I think Popyrin could be a bigtime player, but I’m not sure if he’ll outlast Harris who just outlasted a very similar and more consistent offensive player. Harris in 4-5.
McDonald Coric : McDonald struggled early, as Cecchinato does not just disappear simply because he’s on hardcourt, but he does disappear when it’s time for the second round, and Mackie gets some much-needed puntos. Coric was in a war against Pella, but one that he never surrendered. Pella served for the set a few times, but got broken each time. I expect a similar outcome here, but in fewer sets. McDonald can hang in rallies and this match will have a lot of them, but Coric is a bit too consistent and Mackie still makes errors when he plays offense. Coric in 3
Krajinovic Andujar : Thunder booms. A jaguar awakens somewhere in the South Pole. “It is time,” says an old tree to a quiet forest. A monkey throws a rock into a still lake. “ANDUJAR!” it booms. The monkey throws another rock. “ANDUJAR!” it booms. A man appears, or is it more than a man. He quietly walks up and pats the monkey on the head. “It is time,” he whispers. Just hours later that half man half mirage would step onto the court against Halys. What was it time for? Well, Pablo Andujar’s one hardcourt win that he gets each year. A very good performance, and a testament again to how difficult claycourters are once they get into a rally.
Krajinovic and Haase played a complete highlight reel of a match, and I expect this one to be similar. Some may criticize Kraj for struggling with Haase, but Robin plays a top-tier level of offense and he’s a similar skillful outlier to Jeremy Chardy. The level that Kraj played is a bit better than Andujar, so even though Filip is famous for big letdowns, I think he wins here. Krajinovic in 4.
Carballes-Baena Medvedev : Good win for RCB round one. Now he can enjoy Australia. Medvedev was hitting winners off Pospisil’s serve. The guy is ridiculous and amazing to watch Medvedev in 3.
Tsitsipas Kokkinakis : I expected Kokkinakis to win the first set and then struggle. He did the first part but failed at the second. Kwon is really struggling to win matches on tour, and Kokkinakis serves too well to let him break your serve. I expect this to be close for a while,
but Tsitsipas beating Simon in such quick fashion means he’s not really making errors. Tsitsipas in 4.
Alcaraz Ymer : Alcaraz benefitted greatly from Van De ZandSchulp having a very poor serving day. He just couldn’t land first serves, and Alcaraz teed off on the second serve offerings. Up next is a resplendent Mikael Ymer, who hung in there against Hurkacz until the errors came. This is a good test for Alcaraz because Ymer doesn’t get tired, hits a very solid ball, and is faster than really most guys on tour. Offense vs defense really, but here I don’t expect Alcaraz to struggle. He had some tough losses on clay to guys with top level defense like Coria, but on hardcourt it’s really tough to outplay a guy who’s so competent in the rallies. This is a similar letdown spot to last week though where Alcaraz beat Goffin (we’re now seeing that wasn’t such a major accomplishment given David’s struggles) and then lost quickly to Monteiro on a windy day. Very slight lean towards Alcaraz here but I wouldn’t really back either of these guys as it’s a brand new matchup, and both are at new peaks in their career. Alcaraz in 4.
Khachanov Berankis : Khachanov continued his good play from last week, although he dropped a set to the big hitting Vukic. Berankis had the easiest draw of the event really, as Nagal never wins off clay. Khachanov is in a tiny bit of danger here as Berankis doesn’t give anything away, but the serve and the power are a big edge to the Russian. Khachanov in 4.
Machac Berretini : Great win for Machac even though Vilella Martinez had to retire. He brought pace and consistency from start to finish and that’s what’s necessary on tour. Berretini looked like he’d lose the first, but he seems to have a bit of the oomph that was missing from his play at the end of last year, and Anderson really looked in bad trouble after losing the first. Machac can acquit himself nicely here, and he has a similar game to Giron who gave Berretini trouble (he may even be better in time), but Berretini in form is just too hard to break. Berretini in 3.
Fognini Caruso : Maybe PCB’s loss to Fognini last week doesn’t look so bad, after watching him cruise through Herbert. This brings up a somehow first time matchup against Caruso, who’d been carrying Italian tennis in a lot of the events on tour. There isn’t much ability to predict Fognini matches, and honestly it is a puzzle whether he’ll compete or not on a given day. Even in a match where things can go well, he can get disrespected by a butterfly and tank. He seems lately to have been distracted by arguing with hawkeye, and attempting to challenge calls even though the system is automated.
Caruso is supremely skillful, and has been competing hard on tour for a while. I don’t see him going away here, and I think if he’s able to get an early lead that Fognini will throw his hands up and spray errors wildly. If Fognini is able to hang within 1 set, I think he competes. Still, I give the nod to the guy who’s been putting in the hard yards on tour. Caruso in 5.
De Minaur Cuevas : Alex De Minaur is just reliable at beating guys he should. He outworked Tennys Sandgren, and now has a very winnable match against a resurgent Cuevas. It’s good for Cuevas to get wins, and his athleticism was on full display as he frustrated Seppi into errors while standing 10 feet behind the baseline. I think that although Cuevas is able to compete at a high level sometimes, De Minaur is too disciplined for this to get out of hand. He’s willing to work the point, and he’s good at closing to net which will cause trouble for Pablo’s positioning.
Norrie Safiullin : Cam Norrie and Evans had the war we wanted them to, and Norrie came out on top which must drive Evans crazy. Safiullin beat Ivashka pretty easily, and he’ll have a good shot here. This is the classic Norrie matchup where his defense and work ethic are up against an offensive talent who shouldn’t be able to beat him but might. I’m excited to see what happens, but Safiullin doesn’t have this kind of win in his bag yet. Oddsmakers set this at -290 +230 though, so given that Norrie is a way larger market, they’re not exactly writing off Roman’s chances with fresh legs. Norrie in 4 is the most likely outcome.
Nadal Mmoh : Nadal in 3. He was great yesterday and Mmoh won a heartfelt battle but he’s not there yet.

Thank you all so much for your patience today! It's a little later than we anticipated, but MATCHING IS FINALLY DONE!!
RETRIEVE YOUR MATCHES!!
A few quick reminders:

1. Matches are final. You can not swap your match with someone else, and you can not ask us to give you someone new to gift to.
   
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3.Moderators remove posts that are "gift spoilers." Picture of your wrapped presents ready to go? Cool! Pictures of what you're sending unwrapped before you put them in the box? Not cool. Let your giftee be surprised when they receive their gift, seeing it for the first time.

1. First time participating or need a refresher? Read over the match prep and shipping tips and tricks posts and their comment threads linked at the bottom of the post.
   
2. How much should you spend? We recommend spending 20$ USD before shipping. You should be focusing on being thoughtful when shopping for your giftee.
   
3. When do you need to ship by? You should have your gift in the mail by December 21st, 2020.
   
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6. Have another question? Check out the FAQ. Chances are, your question has already been answered!
   
7. If you retrieve your match before we generate the match emails you will not get an email.
   

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This means that certain features are temporarily disabled (like seeing past exchanges, viewing the step by step breakdown for the exchange, and viewing the map of participants) while everyone storms the site.

• If you need to contact support, please click here Please be patient, our support team is only 1-1/2 people, and they will be receiving a not insignificant number of emails over the next 72 hours.
  
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• Your giftee are never appropriate to post, anywhere on Reddit.
  
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Here is a handy link to your Secret Santa status page.
And if you're really in the giving spirit this year, we can always use more rematchers! Feel free to sign up and be the hero someone needs here.
Thank you all for participating during this extraordinary year. We're so happy to see so many of you return year after year, and equally happy to see so many new participants. Let's make this Secret Santa the best part of 2020! (I know it's a low bar, but still! Greatness awaits!)
PS Yes, I see the numbering is incorrect. No, I do not have the energy to fix it.
PPS IF IT SAYS 'AWAITING MATCHING' THAT IS A CACHE ISSUE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RESOLVE ITSELF. If you can retrieve your giftee's information, then you were matched and someone else was matched to you.
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Barcelona 2 - 1 Athletic Bilbao

Barcelona scorers: Lionel Messi (20'), Antoine Griezmann (74')
Athletic scorers: Jordi Alba OG (49')
Venue: Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain
Referee: Antonio Mateu Lahoz
Barcelona:

Starting XI	Notes	Subs	Notes
Marc-André ter Stegen		Neto
Jordi Alba	49' 50'	Arnau Tenas
Samuel Umtiti		Sergi Roberto	67'
Ronald Araújo		Clément Lenglet	84'
Óscar Mingueza		Junior Firpo
Pedri		Matheus Fernandes
Frenkie de Jong	46'	Riqui Puig
Miralem Pjanić	67'	Iliax Moriba
Antoine Griezmann	74' 84'	Konrad de la Fuente
Lionel Messi	20'	Martin Braithwaite	87'
Ousmane Dembélé	87'	Francisco Trincão

Manager: Ronald Koeman (Netherlands)
Athletic Bilbao:

Starting XI	Notes	Subs	Notes
Unai Simón		Jokin Ezkieta
Yuri Berchiche		Íñigo Lekue	84'
Íñigo Martínez		Unai Núñez
Yeray Álvarez		Mikel Vesga	66'
Andre Capa	84'	Ibai Gómez
Iker Muniain		Unai López
Unai Vencedor	66'	Íñigo Cordoba
Dani García		Oihan Sancet
Óscar de Marcos	66'	Jon Morcillo
Iñaki Williams	84'	Álex Berenguer	66'
Raúl García	32'	Asier Villalibre	84'

Manager: Marcelino (Spain)
MATCH EVENTS
1': We're off!
5': First chance comes to Messi who rushes forward to the near post and fires, but Simón covers his post and kicks away the shot.
7': Messi finds Griezmann! Griezmann fires but his shot is tipped over the bar.
14': Pjanić's shot is going off-target but Messi intercepts it and tries to chest it into the goal but puts it over.
20': GOAL BARCELONA!! Bencedor fouls Lionel Messi just outside the box, Messi takes the free kick himself over the wall and into the top corner!
24': Yeray's shot is right at ter Stegen.
25': Araújo gets around his man and fires but misses the far side.
32': Ref gives a foul, Raúl García disagrees with it enough to get carded for dissent
45': Fantastic counter-attack powered by Frenkie de Jong, but it's eventually wasted by Dembélé who fires over the bar.
HT Barcelona 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Barcelona in full control right now, and Messi with a fantastic goal at the half.
46': We're back!
46': Frenkie de Jong pulls back Martínez by the shirt
48': Messi feeds Griezmann on the left side, Griezmann fires but is saved, and also offside
49': GOAL ATHLETIC!! Jordi Alba tries to clear a cross and puts it into his own net!
50': Jordi Alba protests the own goal, claims he was fouled, only gets a card
56': Williams almost scores an own goal on the other end, but Simón catches the back header.
57': Big save!! Griezmann sends in a cross that Pjanić heads at the far side, forcing Simón to dive to his left to push it out!
66': Athletic double sub: Mikel Vesga and Álex Berenguer on for Unai Vencedor and Óscar de Marcos
67': Barcelona substitution: Sergi Roberto on for Miralem Pjanić
72': Berenguer fires wide and hits the back of the net from the wrong side.
74': GOAL BARCELONA!! It's Mingueza with the cross and he finds Antoine Griezmann who times his run perfectly and hits the back of the net!
84': Athletic double sub: Íñigo Lekue and Asier Villalibre on for Iñaki Williams and Ander Capa
84': Barcelona substitution: Clément Lenglet on for Antoine Griezmann
87': Barcelona substitution: Martin Braithwaite on for Ousmane Dembélé
88': Raúl García's shot deflects over the goal.
90+3': SAVE! Messi on the counter, he has options, opts to feed Alba on the left, Simón slaps it away!
FT Barcelona 2-1 Athletic Bilbao A goal each from Messi and Griezmann, a good win today

Barcelona 2 - 1 Athletic Bilbao

Barcelona scorers: Lionel Messi (20'), Antoine Griezmann (74')
Athletic scorers: Jordi Alba OG (49')
Venue: Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain
Referee: Antonio Mateu Lahoz
Barcelona:

Starting XI	Notes	Subs	Notes
Marc-André ter Stegen		Neto
Jordi Alba	49' 50'	Arnau Tenas
Samuel Umtiti		Sergi Roberto	67'
Ronald Araújo		Clément Lenglet	84'
Óscar Mingueza		Junior Firpo
Pedri		Matheus Fernandes
Frenkie de Jong	46'	Riqui Puig
Miralem Pjanić	67'	Iliax Moriba
Antoine Griezmann	74' 84'	Konrad de la Fuente
Lionel Messi	20'	Martin Braithwaite	87'
Ousmane Dembélé	87'	Francisco Trincão

Manager: Ronald Koeman (Netherlands)
Athletic Bilbao:

Starting XI	Notes	Subs	Notes
Unai Simón		Jokin Ezkieta
Yuri Berchiche		Íñigo Lekue	84'
Íñigo Martínez		Unai Núñez
Yeray Álvarez		Mikel Vesga	66'
Andre Capa	84'	Ibai Gómez
Iker Muniain		Unai López
Unai Vencedor	66'	Íñigo Cordoba
Dani García		Oihan Sancet
Óscar de Marcos	66'	Jon Morcillo
Iñaki Williams	84'	Álex Berenguer	66'
Raúl García	32'	Asier Villalibre	84'

Manager: Marcelino (Spain)
MATCH EVENTS
1': We're off!
5': First chance comes to Messi who rushes forward to the near post and fires, but Simón covers his post and kicks away the shot.
7': Messi finds Griezmann! Griezmann fires but his shot is tipped over the bar.
14': Pjanić's shot is going off-target but Messi intercepts it and tries to chest it into the goal but puts it over.
20': GOAL BARCELONA!! Bencedor fouls Lionel Messi just outside the box, Messi takes the free kick himself over the wall and into the top corner!
24': Yeray's shot is right at ter Stegen.
25': Araújo gets around his man and fires but misses the far side.
32': Ref gives a foul, Raúl García disagrees with it enough to get carded for dissent
45': Fantastic counter-attack powered by Frenkie de Jong, but it's eventually wasted by Dembélé who fires over the bar.
HT Barcelona 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Barcelona in full control right now, and Messi with a fantastic goal at the half.
46': We're back!
46': Frenkie de Jong pulls back Martínez by the shirt
48': Messi feeds Griezmann on the left side, Griezmann fires but is saved, and also offside
49': GOAL ATHLETIC!! Jordi Alba tries to clear a cross and puts it into his own net!
50': Jordi Alba protests the own goal, claims he was fouled, only gets a card
56': Williams almost scores an own goal on the other end, but Simón catches the back header.
57': Big save!! Griezmann sends in a cross that Pjanić heads at the far side, forcing Simón to dive to his left to push it out!
66': Athletic double sub: Mikel Vesga and Álex Berenguer on for Unai Vencedor and Óscar de Marcos
67': Barcelona substitution: Sergi Roberto on for Miralem Pjanić
72': Berenguer fires wide and hits the back of the net from the wrong side.
74': GOAL BARCELONA!! It's Mingueza with the cross and he finds Antoine Griezmann who times his run perfectly and hits the back of the net!
84': Athletic double sub: Íñigo Lekue and Asier Villalibre on for Iñaki Williams and Ander Capa
84': Barcelona substitution: Clément Lenglet on for Antoine Griezmann
87': Barcelona substitution: Martin Braithwaite on for Ousmane Dembélé
88': Raúl García's shot deflects over the goal.
90+3': SAVE! Messi on the counter, he has options, opts to feed Alba on the left, Simón slaps it away!
FT Barcelona 2-1 Athletic Bilbao A goal each from Messi and Griezmann, a good win today

For the Day family, October 3rd 1973 began as just a typical Wednesday morning at their home in Porter, Maine. 14 year old Roger Day was seated at the table with his 3 other siblings, eating breakfast together just after his mother left for work. Soon the four children were supposed to be catching the bus to school together. As they were finishing up breakfast, his sister Leigh Anne Weeks recalls Roger announcing that he was ditching school to attend the Fryeburg Fair that day.
Any Mainer knows about the Fryeburg Fair. It's a yearly tradition celebrating the end of summer as it turns to fall. It's your basic fair with all the greasy food, fun things to do, cool animals, etc. His siblings thought nothing of it, and headed off to school. The fair was about 20 miles away, and in a northern direction from his home. This was the last time Roger Day was ever seen or heard from again.
His father reported him missing the next day, and he never stopped believing that his son was alive. He went to the Fryeburg Fair every year after in search of Roger, hoping that he just ran off with the carnies and would come back. His mother stayed busy to distract herself. Weeks however firmly believes that her brother is no longer alive. She doesn't think he ever made it to the fair at all, and is quoted saying, "It's like he's been body-snatched; really there's been no clues at all."
Weeks, amongst many others, described Roger as a kid who just loved life and had a strong personality- his stubborn, fiery side especially coming out whenever he was assigned chores. It would always end with Roger walking away saying "Well I got you to do it for me, didn't I?".
It is known with certainty that he is endangered missing and did not disappear under his own accord. There is no reason that he would have left behind his family, friends, and life that he loved so much. And there were no leads for years, until it was learned that- unbeknownst to the family- there had been a pedophile living just 2 or 3 houses away from the Day's own. And in 2013, a property on Route 25 was searched by police. This property was confirmed to belong to the neighbor who had the sexual assault allegations against him. However only animal bones are known to have been found. And this suspect remains unnamed to the public.
Weeks says she knows that God knows what happened, and thinks He may just be protecting them all from the details.
Roger would be in his sixties today.
​
Roger Day
age: 14, (edit: one of the sources got his birthday wrong, it is actually November 4th, 1958)
ethnicity: white
height/weight: 5'7, 130 lbs
clothing: purple sweatshirt, denim jacket, jeans, and sneakers
haieyes: brown, hazel
other: the tip of one of Roger's middle fingers had been crushed in an accident so the top was flattened.
Any tips on Roger Day's disappearance or current location should be reported to Maine State Police, 207-624-7200
or if anyone has potential Doe matches.
​
https://wjbq.com/missing-full-list-of-unsolved-missing-persons-cases-in-maine/
https://charleyproject.org/case/roger-merton-day
https://bangordailynews.com/2015/10/29/news/teens-disappearance-on-way-to-fryeburg-fair-still-a-mystery-42-years-late
https://www.websleuths.com/forums/threads/me-roger-merton-day-14-porter-4-october-1973.276494/